Thursday, December 27, 2007

Predictions 07: How did we do?

This time last year I made a number of predictions and I was less than accurate and as a prelude to looking at what may or may not happen in 2008, I thought I would revisit these. (Current comments in italics).

NYTimes will eliminate the Saturday print edition of the newspaper. It will also create local web news sites for every major metropolitan city in the US and will stream video from their owned broadcast television stations, classified advertising will be free. The company will also launch a citizen’s paper: The New World Times. NYT will create suite of news gathering tools – web services – and make available to ‘citizen journalists’ content and research traditionally only available to professional journalists

Some media prognoticators are suggesting that one of the top 100 US dailies will make the move to eliminate a Saturday print edition sometime in 2008. The NYT is at the same time too conservative to try anything so radical but also without motivation that true public company ownership would insist on.

YouTube tv: Just like America’s funniest home videos we will see a TV show based on original YouTube video content. It will win its night by 10% and will be turned into a weekly Saturday night talent show.

Didn't happen but we did see some excruciatingly scripted YouTube insertions into one of the Presidential debates. We also saw content owners get very angry at Youtube during 2007.

Using cell phones’ camera as a barcode reader will lead to an explosion of mobile in-context/ in situ mobile advertising – followed in 2008 by RFID based in-store advertising (with software for cell phones). Mobile advertising will surpass 5% of all ad dollars spent by agencies by end 2007. (Web currently at 20%)

Not sure about this one. I think more will happen here in 2008 but mobile is not quite ready for prime time. We did see the immense growth of Twitter which wsn't on the radar 12 mths ago. Integrating an ad model somehow here will be a big deal perhaps by 2009.

Google launches product placement advertising program. Based on similar key word algorithms advertisers will bid for placement in movies, television, other broadcast, ports, etc. prior to production and/or live telecast. Program will represent 10% of all fall 2007 upfront spend. FCC will hold hearings on standards related to product placement advertising in late 2007 as the market explodes

Didn't happen but Google expanded their grip on the advertising space with numerous acquisitions including Doubleclick. Despite their size they still only represent a fraction of the potential ad market. See them grow....

Apple will think about buying Disney and Electronic Arts but will buy Tivo and slingBox. Apple will also launch a Beatles version of the I-Pod including the entire Beatles catalog plus video/movies. The Beatles I-Pod will retain the tradition Apple artwork (Green apple front, cut away apple on the back). Yahoo will by EA and within six months launch a social network gaming site based on EA content

Tivo has re-established its self and is now selling its technology to companies they once viewed as competitors. The company seems stronger than it was 12mths ago. Slingbox was acquired by Echostar (Sat provider). EA will be wondering about the big combination in their space of Activision and Vivendi but they have aggresive themselves and is likely to remain independent.

Yahoo continue to have their problems and haven't established a breakout strategy after Jerry Yang took over 12mths ago.

Hard to believe we don't have a Beatles section on iTunes. We do have Led Zep.

No-one will buy Netflix.

Got this one right

Social Media in Education: Several major US colleges will teach various social science courses entirely in simulation. The courses will not be taught in traditional lecture form but entirely within the software simulation.

There hasn't been too much movement here and the biggest news in education were the ginormous monies spread around to acquire Thomson and Harcourt.

News Corp will buy Dow Jones and Financial Times and sell Harpercollins and Hachette will by Harpercollins.

One right. HC may yet be sold in 2008

EBay will by Linden Labs (Second Life). Within six months they will integrate Ebay selling tools into SecondLife enabling virtual store fronts, sales assistance and virtual trading. Will launch program with major retailers and create first Second Life mega-mall in cooperation with Westfield. Ebay also launches SecondLife media placement agency to handle all media inventory on SecondLife. T Mobile buys Skype from Ebay. Linden dollars will be included in the Feds M1 currency calculation.

Ebay has seen continuing deteriorization in revenues from their best customers. The company spectacularly recognized how bad the Skype acquisition had been by reducing its book value by half. Will they sell Skype? If they do it will probably not occur until they have a new CEO. Second Life had some problems: they were hacked and lost some customer information and during 2007 growth has slowed. Hard to know where this will go.

Neil Young’s Living with War wins the Grammy for best Rock Album.

Lost but still an awesome album.

I will revisit predictions for 2008 next week.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

A pat on the back for the courage of your convictions, for pushing the envelope with some great specuulations and for facing up to the outcomes --