Graphic Realities

I wrote a post last week about Graphic novels related to an article that appeared in the Philadelphia Inquirer. My post generated this comment from Van Allan and it is a post in and of itself about the developing graphic novel marketplace:


It is amazing to see how much the medium of graphic novels have grown over the past 20 years. And it's been fascinating to see Hollywood come calling. However, I do believe quite strongly that there are some major barriers on the distribution side of things that have inhibited this growth and have prevented comics from growing as much as they could. The main issue isn’t in the book trade, however, but rather in the Direct Market (the “comic shops”).

Diamond's monopoly on the Direct Market has become far too onerous for any of the non-brokered publishers. It boggles my mind that so many of these publishers signed exclusive distribution deals with Diamond that have really gotten them nothing at all. Diamond will still not take an inventory position on titles and "out of stock" titles become defacto "out of print" in many, many cases. Getting re-orders flowing through Diamond in a way that I'm familiar as a bookseller with would seem to be nearly impossible. From this point of view, Diamond is not a distributor at all, but rather a freight-forwarder. And since they are the exclusive supplier in the Direct Market, they really are the only game in town. Certainly the ability to use just-in-time inventory management is a major problem on the retail level as a result of this. Factor in low discounts to retailers and you have a situation that leads to conservatism in ordering. It is fascinating to me that a title like Persepolis performed so much better in the book trade channel. I think the same can be said for manga.

Just to drive this point home even further: it is no surprise to me whatsoever that both Fantagraphics and Drawn & Quarterly have set-up retail operations (in Seattle and Montreal respectfully. The distribution situation is fundamentally untenable as it stands right now and publishers are trying to find alternatives. This all means that if a small press title (and really, that means anything published by anyone save for Marvel, DC, Image and Dark Horse) has small initial orders from Diamond, growing sales long-term is almost impossible. A title is dead right out of the gate.

In my own case, I know that if I tried to launch my graphic novel through Diamond tomorrow I'd be facing initial orders of no more than 300 copies. I'd be looking at re-orders at only another 100-200 if I was very lucky. Even if I managed to get into Ingram, Baker & Taylor, Bookazine, North 49, etc..., orders would most likely be very poor. Printing 1000 copies of my graphic novel is about the minimum I can shoot for with offset printers like Lebonfon. I suspect the odds are long that I'd sell that many over the course of a year.

I think this partially explains why so many graphic novelists are turning to the web and trying to gain traction that way. It certainly does in my case. While I think the diversity in what is being brought to market is truly amazing, I suspect we’re heading towards a schism between the two channels (if we’re not experiencing it already). And that is a somewhat scary proposition for those of us trying to earn a living in this medium.

Predictions 07: How did we do?

This time last year I made a number of predictions and I was less than accurate and as a prelude to looking at what may or may not happen in 2008, I thought I would revisit these. (Current comments in italics).

NYTimes will eliminate the Saturday print edition of the newspaper. It will also create local web news sites for every major metropolitan city in the US and will stream video from their owned broadcast television stations, classified advertising will be free. The company will also launch a citizen’s paper: The New World Times. NYT will create suite of news gathering tools – web services – and make available to ‘citizen journalists’ content and research traditionally only available to professional journalists

Some media prognoticators are suggesting that one of the top 100 US dailies will make the move to eliminate a Saturday print edition sometime in 2008. The NYT is at the same time too conservative to try anything so radical but also without motivation that true public company ownership would insist on.

YouTube tv: Just like America’s funniest home videos we will see a TV show based on original YouTube video content. It will win its night by 10% and will be turned into a weekly Saturday night talent show.

Didn't happen but we did see some excruciatingly scripted YouTube insertions into one of the Presidential debates. We also saw content owners get very angry at Youtube during 2007.

Using cell phones’ camera as a barcode reader will lead to an explosion of mobile in-context/ in situ mobile advertising – followed in 2008 by RFID based in-store advertising (with software for cell phones). Mobile advertising will surpass 5% of all ad dollars spent by agencies by end 2007. (Web currently at 20%)

Not sure about this one. I think more will happen here in 2008 but mobile is not quite ready for prime time. We did see the immense growth of Twitter which wsn't on the radar 12 mths ago. Integrating an ad model somehow here will be a big deal perhaps by 2009.

Google launches product placement advertising program. Based on similar key word algorithms advertisers will bid for placement in movies, television, other broadcast, ports, etc. prior to production and/or live telecast. Program will represent 10% of all fall 2007 upfront spend. FCC will hold hearings on standards related to product placement advertising in late 2007 as the market explodes

Didn't happen but Google expanded their grip on the advertising space with numerous acquisitions including Doubleclick. Despite their size they still only represent a fraction of the potential ad market. See them grow....

Apple will think about buying Disney and Electronic Arts but will buy Tivo and slingBox. Apple will also launch a Beatles version of the I-Pod including the entire Beatles catalog plus video/movies. The Beatles I-Pod will retain the tradition Apple artwork (Green apple front, cut away apple on the back). Yahoo will by EA and within six months launch a social network gaming site based on EA content

Tivo has re-established its self and is now selling its technology to companies they once viewed as competitors. The company seems stronger than it was 12mths ago. Slingbox was acquired by Echostar (Sat provider). EA will be wondering about the big combination in their space of Activision and Vivendi but they have aggresive themselves and is likely to remain independent.

Yahoo continue to have their problems and haven't established a breakout strategy after Jerry Yang took over 12mths ago.

Hard to believe we don't have a Beatles section on iTunes. We do have Led Zep.

No-one will buy Netflix.

Got this one right

Social Media in Education: Several major US colleges will teach various social science courses entirely in simulation. The courses will not be taught in traditional lecture form but entirely within the software simulation.

There hasn't been too much movement here and the biggest news in education were the ginormous monies spread around to acquire Thomson and Harcourt.

News Corp will buy Dow Jones and Financial Times and sell Harpercollins and Hachette will by Harpercollins.

One right. HC may yet be sold in 2008

EBay will by Linden Labs (Second Life). Within six months they will integrate Ebay selling tools into SecondLife enabling virtual store fronts, sales assistance and virtual trading. Will launch program with major retailers and create first Second Life mega-mall in cooperation with Westfield. Ebay also launches SecondLife media placement agency to handle all media inventory on SecondLife. T Mobile buys Skype from Ebay. Linden dollars will be included in the Feds M1 currency calculation.

Ebay has seen continuing deteriorization in revenues from their best customers. The company spectacularly recognized how bad the Skype acquisition had been by reducing its book value by half. Will they sell Skype? If they do it will probably not occur until they have a new CEO. Second Life had some problems: they were hacked and lost some customer information and during 2007 growth has slowed. Hard to know where this will go.

Neil Young’s Living with War wins the Grammy for best Rock Album.

Lost but still an awesome album.

I will revisit predictions for 2008 next week.

NYC Christmas

Created with Admarket's flickrSLiDR.

I'm experimenting with this photo viewer thing. Not too sure about it. Each image has a comment but it is not obvious.

BBC: A Whale of a Story

The BBC have chosen to cover the Japanese whaling fleet in the South Atlantic by sending a reporter named Jonah Fisher. Some wag suggested it must be a send up but sure enough I saw him on the news last night. I wonder what amount of ribbing he is getting from the crew.

Year in Stats & Popular Posts

By way of thanks to all my loyal readers I thought I would list some of the stats for the blog. I am not sure how 'auditable' these stats are but between google/analytics and feedburner there is some consistency. Currently I have nearly 800 subscribers via RSS and over 100 via email. During the year I had approximately 30,000 visits which resulted in 45,000 page views. On average, those who browsed the content spent 2.25 mins per page. Nearly all of this growth happened since May.

The top label (subject) was 'thomson'. Rounding out the top five were playboy, future of biblio, Harcourt and Educational Publishing. Seasonally, I had my heaviest traffic during the summer when the education publishers were in play. Thomson, Harcourt, Houghton, McGraw Hill and OCLC all provided the most traffic other than that delivered via commercial operators like Comcast, Roadrunner, etc. Top referring sites included the normal suspects: Google, Blogger, Technorati. Additionally, I thank Charblog, Eoin Purcell, Exact Editions, Schlagergroup, Bill Trippe, Lorcan Dempsey, Ed Champion, The Millions, Gladys Bembo , Teleread and PW for their support. (I don't do enough to return the favors and I hope to do better).

The most popular blog posts were:

Amazon & Self Publishing, Headline Guaranteed to Get Attention, Penguin Sued over Dot Parker, High Voltage: Australian Publishers Upset, Five Questions with Rosetta Solutions, Harpercollins reports Higher Revenues, .epub: What it means for Publishers, Endorsement for PND, Scholastic, the future, Five Questions with Lonely Planet.

Perusing my traffic reports, I always notice the 'Hilton hotel' or 'Marriott' network ids and think some poor shlepper is on the road and all they want to do is read my humble blog. Well, thanks to all of you stuck in some bland hotel getting your Personanondata fix. I appreciate it and I've been there myself.

The network addresses throw up other interesting items such as spelling mistakes. It always makes me smile when I see my friends from "Nielson" have come to visit. I always say, one thing you should always be able to do correctly is spell your name.

Search strings are another source of (my) amusement. Here is a sample of actual searches that landed on my site from the past 30 days:

“non german or non chinese customer who engage in electronic commerce”
"Motor Mouth barnsley”
"who is an actor"
"supply chain for a gym”
"2007 2008 email contact of chear holders in france @yahoo.com”
"Mr. Katz is in the widget business. He currently sells 2 million”
"escorting for dummies”
"Local news on the 7 October 1997 in London”

While for obvious reasons I hope these people left my site disappointed there is a reason I look at these queries because they often throw up leads for blog posts.

I hope next year is even bigger. Thanks for the support and please tell colleagues, friends and family members about the site.

HarperRandomCollins or RandomHarperCollinsHouse

Well why not? If Forbes and CNN Money have the same short note suggesting that Bertelsmann is going to buy Harpercollins for a $1.obillion then why not Personanondata? On the suggested deal itself, I am sure Hachette would have something to say about that. Or any media PE oriented group. Maybe CBS would carve off S&S for a combo with Harpercollins. Even the FTC would weigh in once all the booksellers reacted. Anyway, Harpercollins denies any discussions are taking place: But they would wouldn't they. Reuters.

This could make for an interesting new year. With Harpercollins' recent financial performance not comparing well with their own high standard and News Corp's expensive purchase of Dow Jones perhaps there is something to this. On the other hand, Bertelsmann already have a $1billion trade publisher and strategically would they want to invest a $1.obillion in a business with slow (if any) revenue growth and low margins. A better solution, would be to invest in an information business that in the right segment would see fast revenue growth and margins greater than 20%. We will see.

On a related note, Bertelsmann confirmed again that they have no intention of sell Gruner + Jahr. Bloomberg.

Scholastic Beat Estimates

Scholastic reported second-quarter profit above analysts' estimates, helped by revenue and profit growth in their International segment. The company also announced they are divesting the direct to home continuity business. From the press release;

Revenue in the second quarter was $746.2 million compared to $735.5 million in the prior year period, and net profit was $75.6 million versus $75.1 million. Earnings per diluted share rose to $1.93 from $1.75 in the prior year period, primarily reflecting accretion from the previously announced $200 million accelerated share repurchase. In the quarter, Direct-to-Home Continuities contributed revenue of $33.2 million and resulted in a pro forma net loss of $6.1 million or $0.16 per diluted share, based on the Company's normal effective tax rate of 37.0%; this is compared to revenue of $38.1 million and a pro forma net loss of $2.8 million or $0.06 per diluted share in the second quarter of fiscal 2007.

"In the second quarter, Scholastic's businesses, excluding Direct-to-Home, performed on plan, and the Company's operating income and margin improved year-over-year," commented Richard Robinson, Chairman, CEO and President. "Profits from School Book Fairs, Clubs and Trade Publishing all rose, while Scholastic Education made progress investing in a reorganized sales force, increased technical support and consulting services, and new technology products. In addition our International segment recorded double-digit revenue and profit growth."

The company has retained Greenhill & Co. and has begun the sales process and will also report direct to home as discontinued operations.

The company maintains their full year revenue forecast of $2.3 to $2.5 billion and earnings per diluted share of $2.35 to $2.85, noting that they expect the solid performance in their core businesses to offset the lower than expected results from Continuities. Full year net income may be impacted by write-downs associated with the sale of the business unit but there is no expectation that cash flow will be adversely impacted. The company also announced a modest stock repurchase plan and is authorized to purchase $20mm of its common stock.

Highlights:

• Harry Potter's boxed set helped the consumer segment to achieve flat revenue and profit
• In education, revenues were flat with prior but operating income was lower due to planned investments
• Large gains in international revenues and profits offset declines in other segments.
• Revenues were up 13% and profit up $4.5mm (22%)