News on Literary Social Networks

(Via GalleyCat).
I missed the news reported in The Christian Science Monitor that librarything.com has linked up with Random House to supply books to Librarything users in exchange for reviews.

Random House will send free copies of five new fiction titles to 95 LibraryThing members in exchange for short reviews. They'll ship another batch in July. Come October, LibraryThing anticipates opening its "Early Reviewers" program to other publishing houses. A half-dozen have expressed interest so far.

Goodreads and shelfari are other sites that have been able to generate collective interest in books and the social aspects of reviewing, sharing recommendations and simple inquisitiveness regarding others reading interests. What is apparent is that these sites and the success of others like them will lead to an accelleration in the migration of publishers advertising dollars away from newspapers and trade magazines to sites of book interest. As the article comments:

The potential for websites like Goodreads, LibraryThing, http://www.whatsonmybookshelf.com/, and http://www.shelfari.com/, to reach readers across all demographics is certainly promising. LibraryThing has 205,000 members and 14 million books catalogued. (Mr. Spalding likes to say that if it were a bricks-and-mortar library its collection would surpass Yale University's.) Shelfari, which was launched last year and doesn't disclose numbers beyond saying its users are in the tens of thousands, recently received funding from Amazon.com.

The sources of influential book reviews from the likes of NYTimes and Publisher's Weekly may become marginalized unless they adopt some of the same types of social and interactive technologies that these innovators have done. Woe that they come up with something a step beyond what some of these small innovators have done.

Google Pushing the Bounds of Privacy?

To many literate web aficionados the presumption of privacy as it refers to ones everyday interaction with the web is an anachronism of another age. Reuters takes a look at what Google is doing with web search and doesn't answer many questions but certainly poses some.

Unified Search offers no information not already available on Google, but by putting it all in one place, it is turning up sometimes disconcerting links between previously unconnected types of data. And Google is testing various forms of personalized Web search, including Web History, a feature that allows individual users to look back at a chronological history of their search activity over several years. Users learn what predictable creatures they are -- what good and bad habits they have -- when their entire Web search record is revealed, stretching back days, months, even years. By offering a digital record of users' daily interests, Google is giving those who choose the service an unprecedented level of insight into their own thinking. Computers have begun to play the confessional role once reserved for the local priest, or psychotherapist.

If I needed a shrink, I am pretty sure he/she would not be my computer.

The article goes on to review the push Google is making to re-write the rules of privacy in a legal sense.

Google has responded by calling for comprehensive legislation to harmonize laws of various governments, all of which want their say over the World Wide Web. Self-regulation by the Internet industry has not worked, the company says. "Patchwork regulation is confusing for consumers because they don't know which privacy regulations should apply in different situations," Google attorney Wong says of U.S. privacy laws.

Of course it is a little disingenuous for Wong to speak-up for us consumers when what they proselytize has a material impact on their business model. Nevertheless there is probably a grain/stone of truth to the comment.

Pearson and Dow Jones

I half jokingly suggested that Pearson would take a look at Dow Jones amid speculation that Pearson was next on News Corps list if the NewsCorp bid for Dow Jones didn't work out. Most competitive bidders for DJ face considerable hurdles matching the current Murdoch bid but Pearson may have a hidden advantage in that the Bancroft family may be willing to take less money from Pearson in exchange for the understanding that the financial icon will be better protected journalistically under Pearson than under NewsCorp.

Reports suggest the likelihood of a bid is low, but if they were to end up with Dow Jones, it would be somewhat of a redemption for Pearson chair Scardino who has steadfastly refused to sell the FT group in the face of baying analysts and some shareholders who believed the group a looser. Combined with Dow Jones they would own three of the top ten news and financial journals in the world all of which (WSJ, FT, Economist) have exceptionally strong branding around the world. The next questions would be what do they do with it if they get it?

New York Post (Murdoch Paper)
NYT

Wolters Kluwer: Share Buy Back - Is this all they could think of?

Anyone owning WK shares should be thinking that their investment will increase in value as WK embarks on a $1.obillion share buy back scheme over the next 18mths. (Link) I am sure it is important to shareholders that the company stock price increase but wasn't selling the educational unit a way to get rid of an under performing asset and thus a deflated share price?

In an environment where information assets are going through the roof in terms of value is this the only thing they could come up with that could add long term value for shareholders? Without an aggressive business development strategy - that is acquisitions - is the company not a target themselves with $1.obillion from the education sale and a low share price? WK operate in a rapidly growing health care information market and thus one very appealing to PE or a well placed trade buyer. Why would either wait for the share price to go up?

Bureau Van Dijk: Sale Interest Low

The Private Equity fund Candover placed BVD on the block two months ago amid a highly volatile environment for information and financial database companies. Who could doubt that the time was ripe. However, according to The Financial Times the initial indications of interest have been under whelming thus far. Some of the likely bidders - Reuters, Thomson, Pearson - have not come through with bids and this has disappointed the owners. The company itself appears to be doing well but according to the article some potential buyers are concerned that a lot of the content is not owned by BVD.

These sources also mentioned the fact that Bureau van Dijk does not technically own its own information, as a potential cause for concern for potential bidders. On the other hand, one source noted that it can be seen as a high-quality asset, as reflected in the 9-10x EBITDA multiple being offered in two separate staple finance packages from Goldman Sachs and RBS. Bureau van Dijk’s products include bank, corporate and M&A databases such as BankScope and AMADEUS and ZEPHYR.

Here is the link to my earlier post on BVD.

As the quote above indicates, BVD has strong branded products, in key markets that command high margin revenues. BVD is expected to go for around $1.3billion and given the prices paid for recent information companies it could still surprise.

Book Videos and Simon & Schuster

The New York Times (via Associated Press) has a short article on video promotions for books. It is becoming all the rage now. Here is the McEwen (Chesil Beach) video produced by Powells Books mentioned in the article.



Also mentioned is Susan Wiggins' novel The Shadow Catcher which is one of the new crop of videos launched by Simon & Schuster today. From the article:

Wiggins is one of 40 writers featured on a video site launched Thursday by Simon & Schuster that includes clips of Wiggins, Zane, Jeannette Walls and Sandra Brown. The publisher expects to add videos for books by Vince Flynn, Michael Connelly and Jodi Picoult among others.

Once a novelty, book videos are increasingly common and, publishers say, essential. Hyperion Books, HarperCollins and Penguin Group (USA) are among those using them. Powell's Books, a leading independent store based in Portland, Ore., plans its own series of films, starting with a video for Ian McEwan's new novel, ''On Chesil Beach.''

''I don't know if we're reaching people we wouldn't otherwise be reaching, but we are reaching people who are not necessarily reading book review sections, or always watching a TV show,'' says Sue Fleming, Simon & Schuster's vice president and executive director for online and consumer marketing.

Here is the link to the Wiggins video and here is the link to Bookvideos.tv where you can watch videos of favorite authors (when they do a video) and learn more about the books.

al-Mutanabi Street: Baghdad Diary

I had not had the chance until recently to return to the diary of Dr. Saad Eskande, Director of the Iraq National Library and Archive . It makes pretty horrific reading and this passage from March 5th describes the scene of the car bomb attack on the well known al-Mutanabi Street Book market. The diary is hosted by the British Library and is well worth reading.

As we were talking, a huge explosion shook the INLA's building around 11.35. We, the three of us, ran to the nearest window, and we saw a big and thick grey smoke rising from the direction of al-Mutanabi Street, which is less than 500 meter away from the INLA. I learnt later that the explosion was a result of a car bomb attack. Tens of thousands of papers were flying high, as if the sky was raining books, tears and blood. The view was surreal. Some of the papers were burning in the sky. Many burning pieces of papers fell on the INLA's building. Al-Mutanabi Street is named after one of the greatest Arab poets, who lived in Iraq in the middle ages. The Street is one of well-known areas of Baghdad and where many publishing houses, printing companies and bookstores have their main offices and storages. Its old cafes are the most favorite place for the impoverished intellectuals, who get their inspirations and ideas form this very old quarter of Baghdad. The Street is also famous for its Friday's book market, where secondhand, new and rear books are sold and purchased. The INLA purchases about 95% of new publications from al-Mutanabi Street. I also buy my own books from the same street. It was extremely sad to learn that a number of the publishers and book sellers, whom we knew very well, were among the dead, including Mr. Adnan, who was supposed to deliver a consignment of new publications to the INLA. According to an early estimation, more than 30 people were killed and 100 more injured. Four brothers were killed in their office.

Never Catalog Another Book!

Imagine never having to catalog another book. A potential reality but not one we are likely to see unless the publishing community can establish consistent technical standards for RFID (radio frequency identification). RFID tags should be bound into a book (or DVD, CD) at the bindery and that tag should represent a standard syntax that all RFID readers can understand. The process of RFID attributes a unique number (in standard syntax) to the tag that then enables readers at any point in the publishing supply chain to read the tag and identify the exact copy (or item).

As the item follows through the supply chain, data elements are be attributed to the tag representing everything from ISBN – to advanced shipping notice (ASN) – to customer membership number. In an ideal, fully implemented world, the physical touches are significantly less (and potentially zero) than in the traditional model where books are counted, sorted and cataloged repeatedly before they are eventually sold. As the example of BGN in the Netherlands shows, even in a limited implementation – that is from distribution to retailer – significant savings can be had.

Naturally a robust data warehouse sits at the center of any RFID implementation where all data elements attributable to the items reside. For example, once the RFID tag is attributed to an ISBN all the data elements describing that ISBN are now ‘readable’ at any point in the supply chain. This is particularly relevant at the end of the supply chain in the bookstore or library. At this point, a book can be found in any location in the store or library whether miss-shelved or not by reading the RFID tag. Searches conducted in the catalog or in-store kiosk will be able to identify the exact spot where the book can be found.

Potentially, implementing RFID on an industry basis would eliminate significant redundancy in the supply chain and probably increase effectiveness of everything from publishing programs to marketing programs and sales.

Clearly there are more than a few hurdles to over come to get to this point not least of which is the standard for RFID. Retail implementation of RFID in the US booktrade is limited, but not so in libraries where vendors have been selling systems into the library market for years. Unfortunately, the vendors sell their own non-compatible platforms which only partially generate the kind of improvements that could be achieved. In addition, the libraries that implement RFID have to retro-convert their collections at considerable cost and cover the costs themselves. The number of different systems in place at libraries also causes problems for suppliers who are required to place tags on items and must accommodate differing standards (obvious oxymoron) and then test the resulting tag with a version of the software in place at the library. A tiresome and inefficient process to say the least.

It doesn’t need to be so. In the Netherlands, an admittedly strong vendor set its own agenda in establishing an RFID standard for its stores. There needs to be a similar effort in the US but one that keeps the solution simple – a syntax for the RFID tag only – that will allow publishers, retailers and libraries to experiment and implement RFID in the supply chain.

Ultimately, RFID will be implemented in the publishing industry and booksellers and libraries will never have to catalog or attribute bibliographic information to a title. The bibliographic database is the other key item that needs to be addressed and there are some interesting trends in this area which I will discuss in my next article.

BBC US News: More competition for Katie

Admidst the Katie C bashing The BBC has announced that they will launch an hour long US newscast on BBC America and BBC World.

The BBC is betting on a show that fills a niche in TV similar to the one The Economist fills in print. The London-based magazine saw circulation rise on the popularity of its in-depth international and financial reporting.

Personnally, I enjoy the contrast between the US networks approach to news and the BBC's international viewpoint. I wonder if I will enjoy watching US news on BBC and World news on BBC. For the most part I think US news is fairly shallow so if BBC is able to provide the type of coverage of the US that they do for international news their new program may become an interesting alternative. I'll never give up The Daily Show however.

Are We On The Right Frequency?

Rather than wait for an industry to bless a standard for RFID or a data requirement for each chip, the Dutch retailer BGN launched a major strategic initiative to build ‘the book retail store of the future’ using self-designed RFID tools and technology. The resulting implementation has been the talk of the RFID industry and why not since this relatively small retailer operating in a relatively small industry has done what the mighty Walmart has been unable to do. From the outset, success for BGN was more assured because the company embarked on this effort for its own business reasons rather than having to implement it due to some directive from a third party.

The Dutch experience was presented at a panel meeting on Saturday at BookExpo to a disappointingly small group. RFID is in the process of transforming the BGN business and while publishers and retailers from the US have visited their operations to see the implementation in detail there doesn’t appear to be immediate impetus in the US to launch an RFID initiative. The Dutch example is notable for several reasons: Firstly, the company approached the initiative from a complete supply-chain view and they recognized that they needed to involve other parties in the planning and design of the initiative. Secondly, the company was first to implement the solution, and as a result, key software and hardware vendors were more willing to be flexible to support the implementation since it was in their interests to succeed. Thirdly, the company used experiences gained by others-such as Borders’ use of kiosks, Gartner’s research on store design and Metro of Germany’s test store.

The retail (not just publishing) industry suggested it couldn’t be done, arguing that privacy, tag costs and product breadth were issues too difficult to overcome. While BGN understood and addressed these concerns, Matthijs vd Lely, CEO of BGN, commented while on the Panel that, even prior to implementation, some executives remained skeptical.

The results have been more than impressive. At the Donner store location, the company stocks about 240,000 titles on 55,000 sq/ft and receives about 8million units each year. In a ‘traditional’ store, stock takes require the closing of the store for 2days. The new store remains open and the inventory is counted in hours. Theft and shrinkage have been reduced because the company accurately tracks items from receipt through purchase and the RFID tags acts as a theft alarm. (Privacy has been addressed by deactivating the tag on purchase). In a presentation at Frankfurt last year, the company estimated that they save over $250,000/yr just from stock take efficiency alone. Evidence also suggests that average revenue per customer has increased 6-8%, due to better inventory information at store level.

During implementation, the company needed to address minor issues such as metal shelving that interfered with RFID reception, metal or part metal packaging on books, CDs and DVDs; and, in some cases, location of a title was not specific enough – covering two bookshelf bays for example. These issues appear minor and, post-implementation, the store experience for shoppers is considerably enhanced. Employees and customers can identify with certainty an item and its location in the store. More integration with their web site and with store promotions and bundling is planned. The company hopes to have RFID implemented store-wide by the end of 2008, with added improvements (such as RFID enabled shelving) which could eliminate stock taking entirely.

The prospects for success in the US appear muted for two reasons. Firstly, well-intentioned industry volunteers seem to be fixated on defining the data that may or may not ride along on the RFID chip. In the BGN implementation, the chip only contains a unique number. At the point when the RFID chip is applied to the item (by BGN), the chip number and associated meta-data are married up in the BGN product database: Taken at face value, this approach appears more flexible, cheaper and faster. (For example, what happens if data ‘formatted’ on an RFID chip is inaccurate? The same mistake could be rectified once in a database rather than having to recall all RFID chips and rewriting the information). In the US, the initiative may move faster if we just define the syntax for the ‘dumb’ RFID number. Secondly, no one in the industry appears to want to take the first step but, as the BGN example shows, significant advantages could accrue to the company that goes first. In my opinion, this is most likely to be a retailer and, perhaps, should be a retailer, because the business case seems to be more obvious.

In looking to the future, BGN hopes that tags will be applied at the bindery and supply-chain partners can adopt the technology when they are able. In the US, we don’t seem to have reached that point of mutual desire. In an industry where a half- point gain in operating margin is hard to find, one would think that capital investment supporting RFID implementation at store level would be a no-brainer- especially given the example of BGN.

RFID Can Save Book Retail

BGN is a Dutch retailer that has launched their own RFID initiative to resounding success. (I used their experience as a basis for my re-think of the Borders business strategy). At this mornings panel discussion, the compelling business case seemed to escape the audience although BGN did say that all major publishers and B&N had visited to see the RFID implementation in action.

In the US it seems we are making our standards discussion more complicated than it needs to be and thusfar the primary players in the supply chain are engaged in an infinite loop-like discussion about who should take the lead on implementation.

As a result, we are in the words of one of the panelists engaged in a "rolling five year" implementation. Which means don't hold your breath - more later.

IPhone: The best IPOD we have ever made

Walt Mosberg interviews Steve Jobs about the Apple business - well worth watching.

"we are in three businesses and a hobby" Apple MAC and iTunes Music business generate $10billion each and the third business they are about to get into is the phone business (he calls it "handsets") and the hobby is Apple TV.

Where is the MAC business? Growth is about 3x the market growth rate and greater if US is stripped out.

Jobs: IPhone is the best IPod we have ever made. Available on the last day in June.

Reason 2 cingular did the deal: Existing Phones are not capabile of taking advantage of 3G phones particularly in how users access the interent. They get the 'baby internet'

Zillions of independents are looking to offer DRM free music: many more by end of year.

Mosberg asks about 'lock-in': Jobs notes that less than 25 songs on average IPOD were purchased via Itunes store. Given average user has hundreds of songs on their IPOD. Clearly not getting the majority of their music from Itunes and not even getting a medium sized minority. Suggestion "we have a lock in is ridiculous." "IPOD wins because it is the best music player".

Mosberg: is the IPhone a wireless Ipod? Jobs: It is three things, the best Ipod ever made, the best (and incredibly good) phone and "the internet in your pocket" If it were any one of the three it would be sucessful.

Itunes software versus number of IPODs: 300mm + copies of Itunes versus 100mm Ipods. Makes Apple one of the largest windows developers. Jobs: "we get cards and letters from people that say we are their favorite app on windows," and "Its like giving a glass of ice water to somebody in hell."








Link via Paid Content.

BookExpo Quotes: Friday

Amazon Digital:
4mm orders in one day - during Christmas season
42mm unique visitors each month
67mm active accounts

1 in 2 Books sold is in the Search Inside the Book Program: "Browsing pages sells more books"

Incremental sales up lift is 6.5%

Amazon allows consumers that "the know have a propensity to buy based on their account details to delve deeper into the content and gain more access to content"

Generally an very interesting presentation of the completeness of Amazon's digital marketing and promotions support for publishers.


Overheard in the isle: "this book is a combination of Catch 22 and Patrick O'Brien"

The Murdochs and the Bancrofts

Looks like there has been a change of heart in the Bancroft family and the sale of the company looks all but inevitable. Reuters

From the article:

The Bancroft family, which controls 64 percent of Dow Jones's voting power, said it would also look at offers from other bidders. Dow Jones in a separate statement said the board would consider News Corp.'s offer and other approaches.

The Bancroft decision is a change from its earlier rejection of Murdoch's $60-a-share bid, and brings the publisher of The Wall Street Journal closer to being sold after more than a century of being independent.

Obviously, assuming Murdoch gets this prize it would be unlikely that he will have a go at Pearson. Clearly the market sees this as a real event and the stock was up sharply on the news to slightly below the Murdoch offer level.

Book Expo - Quotes

Shatzkin - End of General Trade: "Print will be the last media to be read on a device....and we shouldn't be proud of that." With respect to published content, "all obsessions no matter what it is will be indulged" and brands as a result "move to a very granular level"

Gomez (Print is Dead): "there will be no e-book revolution until we come up with another name for it" which reflects the interactive nature of the product. And there will be "integration not another IPod". We need to "thinkof the children" who are and will be consumers of our content.

Hyatt - Social Networking for Publishers - It is important "to be authentic" in communications because users will see through what you are doing. Resist the temptation to have someone "ghost write your blog" because you will be found out.

BookExpo Panel Meeting

Reminder to readers: The panel I am hosting at BEA is at 2:30 this afternoon in Room 1E04. On the panel are executives from Overlook Press, Harlequin, HarperCollins, Berkshire Publishing and Thomas Nelson. See you there.

Comedy Central's News Babes

I have a view on network news programs but I wish I were this funny.

Reed Elsevier Most Obvious Buy-Out Candidate?

The Times is reporting that Deutsche Bank called Reed Elsevier the publishing sector’s “most obvious buyout target”. The bank has raised its recommendation on the stock to buy. This is how they see it:

The broker argued that Reed shares could be worth up to 780p to a financial buyer. Sums involved in the Thomson Learning deal also suggested that Reed’s sale of its education business could raise £2.2 billion, up from its previous forecast of £1.8 billion, it said. Reed finished up 16p at 675½p.

Certainly the rules have changed somewhat but applying the multiple paid for Thomson Learning to all of Reed is not quite appropriate. Other analysts have suggested that Reed will escape their education foray successfully and the share price for the balance of Reed will escalate because it is currently weighted down by the educational unit. Reed will certainly benefit from the Thomson Learning sale but if you look at the multiple paid for Reuters (an information business) by Thomson the picture is not as glaringly bright if you are concerned with relative price multiples. Either that or Thomson got a real bargain.

DB may have a vested interest here because Pearson has been consistently touted as the most likely PE target. No doubt there is more action to come in this arena.

Publishing News - An Explanation

When I was at PriceWaterhouse (1995-99), I thought of using this new fangled Internet thing to seek news and information about the publishing industry that I could then summarize in an email and distribute it to my colleagues and the Partners at PW. (No Google then). Our business unit was established to build consulting relationships with major publishing and information companies and I believed that my email news letter (Publishing News) would be useful to the team in understanding the publishing landscape and the key people in the industry.

I kept all of these emails and decided to add them to this blog as supplementary information for some of my readers who from time to time may need background information on certain publishing companies. Regrettably, when I joined Bowker I didn't have the time to keep this up and there is a rather large gap between the end of Publishing News and the start of this blog. It is what it is.

Publishing News 1997-8
Publishing News 1999

Borders Reports First Quarter

Borders reported their first quarter results with little change to show for the new strategy that they are in the process of executing. Overall revenue up versus the same period last year however, same store sales were lower with books revenues slightly worse than last year, DVDs flat and music lower. PaperChase - the stationary misfit - continued to perform better than forecast. The company opened four new superstores during the period which contributed to the overall revenue increase.

There was little news on the new strategy other than to say the company is proceeding with the sale of the international stores where revenues were slightly better than the same period last year.

Readers may recall the aborted debt refinancing the company attempted earlier this year and in the press release the company noted that they expect to seek between $150 - $200million in term loan financing sometime during the second quarter. Perhaps the second time they will explain how this refinancing will benefit shareholders.