Quebecor Share Debacle

Quebecor the big printing rival to RH Donnelly cancelled a $250mm share sale and a related $500mm debt issue yesterday after the offers received less than full participation from the markets. From the Globe and Mail:

Shares dropped from $5.10 to $2.80 in the past seven days - this was a $40 stock five short years ago. Much of the drop over the past week can be traced to short sellers who sold, with the intention of buying back Quebecor World shares by participating in the equity or debenture sale. If these same short sellers own the convertible preferred shares, they have even more to gain from a lower stock price, as they will get more equity when they swap the preferred shares for common. Long-time Quebecor World shareholders seemed unwilling to step in and support the stock over the past seven days, which should be a cause for some soul-searching at head office.

According to the newspaper, the company will now have to completely rethink how they refinance this company which is debt ridden despite selling their loss making European operations earlier this year. The performance of Quebcor compares unfavorably with the performance of RH Donnelly who appear to have weathered fundamental changes in the printing industry and intense competition from Asia to post consistently good results. Donnelly has also spent the summer successfully recapitalizing the company.

Barnes & Noble Report 3rd Quarter

Barnes & Noble reported a solid same store sales increase of 2.6% and a 14.5% increase in dot com revenues for the third quarter. Gross revenues exceeded $1.2billion which reflected a 5.7% increase over the same period last year. Net income for the period was $4.4million or $0.07 per share but reflected an after tax benefit of $6.2million ($0.09/share). Excluding the one time effect, the company had a third quarter loss of $1.8milion or $0.03/share which was was "better than guidance of a loss of $0.06 to $0.10 per share."

From the press release:

“The company’s sales continued to perform at the higher end of expectations, due in part to strong sales of new releases and bestsellers, which combined with a better than expected gross margin rate enabled the company to outperform its third quarter earnings expectations,” said Steve Riggio, chief executive officer of Barnes & Noble, Inc. “In addition, we are encouraged by the sales trends at Barnes & Noble.com that began earlier this year and continued through the third quarter, in which we launched a newly designed website.”

The company also raised guidance for the full year (which should be anticipated given this and the second quarter performance). The company now expects full-year GAAP earnings per share to be in a range of $1.91 to $2.09, compared to previous guidance of $1.69 to $1.87.

B&N's stock price has fluctuated over the past six months from a mid-year high of $43 to its current $36. On the basis of these reported results the share price jumped on Tuesday. In contrast to Borders share performance and market cap ($715million), B&N has a market cap of over $2.4billion. Looking at that comparison with Borders may well make some private equity bankers sweat in anticipation.

Press release

Not Your Ordinary Publishing Contest

There has been a veritable explosion of publishing contests in the past two years, all with the intention of seeking that needle in the hay barn, the next great book. In contrast this contest announced by Scholastic and Coldwell Banker of all people seems to have little point -at least as far as its relevance to publishing. Perhaps I am missing something but it does seem to stretch the logic of strategic alliances very thin.

Coldwell Banker Real Estate Llc Announces The Launch Of Its Third "my Home: The American Dream" Contest. In Collaboration With Scholastic, The Global Children's Publishing, Education And Media Company, Coldwell Banker® Invites Students In Kindergarten Through Eighth Grade To Tell Their Personal Stories, Through Images And Words, About How Their Houses, Apartments, Or Condominiums Are Not Just Places They Live, But Homes Where Dreams Are Shared And Memories Are Made.

(Mrs PND would be going crazy with all the caps in that press release).

I'm not really a fan of similar competitions but this one appears to be pure publicity stunt and the advantage for Scholastic escapes me.

Borders Reports Improvement

While the sale of their Australia and New Zealand operations is still unconfirmed despite spurious reports to the contary, their most likely acquirer has cleared regulatory approval in New Zealand. Pacific Equity Partners has recieved clearance from the Commerce Commission indicating that they do not believe a combination of Whitcoulls and Borders would decrease competition in the NZ book market. Next up is Australia's Competition commission which may rule in early December. An announcement on the sale is expected any day.

Borders announced third-quarter results after the market close yesterday reporting a revenue increase of 5.3% to $805.2 million from $771 million a year earlier. Analysts' consensus estimates were expecting higher revenues ($831million) and better operating performance so we will see how the stock does on Wednesday. Their net income loss for the period included the previously announced one time charge for the sale of their UK operations ($116.5million) and thus the loss for the quarter was $161.1million or $2.74 per share. This compares with a loss in the same period last year of $32.9million or $0.54 per share. Excluding the one-time charge, the company reported an operating loss of $39.1million or $0.66 per share.

Comparable store sales increased in all business segments for the second consecutive quarter. At Borders domestic superstores, same-store sales increased by 1.1% driven largely by a continued increase in traffic as the company further leveraged its 22-million-member Borders Rewards database, among other initiatives. Comparable store sales increased by 3.6% in the Waldenbooks Specialty Retail segment led by growth in traffic and transaction size. In the International segment, comparable store sales increased by 7.8% as a result of strong performance in Asia Pacific stores

Borders' gross margin is eroding as they expand their Border's Reward program. More customers are visiting the stores but they are also recieving discounts and these redemptions are exceeding rate (by design) that occured last year. For the quarter, the company lost almost 1% on gross margin and this on top of the actual expense for promoting and expanding the new rewards plan. Clearly the company needs to invest in new customer acqusition and retention programs but Analysts will watching this program closely for its effectiveness in driving store metrics closer to those achieved by B&N.

Troubling will be the doubling of the operating loss at the US Borders super stores where the company reported a $30.8million loss compared to a loss of $16.7million. This negative performance was blamed on the member program and rapidly declining DVD/Music sales. Books were up 3% but clearly considerably less than the revenue required to cover the investment. George Jones commented on these results:

"Profitability in the Borders domestic superstore segment was negatively impacted by investments we are making now -- in efforts such as our upcoming e-commerce site and concept store development -- that are currently not providing returns, but will drive contributions in the long term," Jones said. "We have also been experimenting with our promotions and discount structure to gain a solid understanding of the levers that drive traffic and sales in our stores. Our Borders Rewards program has proven that it clearly and consistently works to achieve both. Now, we need to fine-tune our approach further so that we better balance the bottom-line impact with our top-line growth," he added.

The Borders share price has fallen from a mid-year high of $24 to its current $12. Correspondingly, the company's market cap is now below $715mm which in my estimation makes it a cheap acquisition candidate.

Full press release

Kindle

I was contemplating listing some of the articles and posts related to the Amazon news this week but thankfully Eoin Purcell has done it for me.

Here.

In some strange way I feel some appear to be rooting for Kindle versus Sony (or Apple) as if it is a contest that in earlier years would have pitted Donnelly against Quebecor.

Videologblog: Writers Strike (Colbert Report writers)

There has been a serious lack of humor in the PND household over the past two weeks. This goes a short way in alleviating the monotony of Nature and Antiques Roadshow. There really is nothing worth watching.

Five Questions on Global Data Synchronization

That's a title likely to induce a narcoleptic attack in all but the most ardent followers of bibliographic matters but it is nevertheless an important topic for all managers of book information. Industries other than publishing also battle data reliability and timeliness and, over the years led by umbrella groups such as UCC and EAN (now combined into one organization named GS1), they have developed programs to embrace supply chain efficiency and its' co-relation data integrity. Data Synchronisation (GDSN) is such a program which I have noted a few times in the past (Post). The objective of the GDSN is to ensure that all trading partners are working with the same set of product details that are simultaneously synchronized at a network level and in transaction details such as purchase orders and shipping details. The benefits of synchronised data can extend from 'simple' efficiency improvements in the ordering and receipt process to higher effectiveness in marketing and promotions programs.

As I mentioned earlier on this topic, BookNet Canada is embarking on a test of data synchronization and I asked Michael Tamblyn, President of BookNet Canada my five questions.

1. Firstly tell us about how BookNet Canada got started and what you have achieved thus far. What are your current priorities?
   
   BookNet Canada came into being in 2003 when Canadian retailers, publishers and the federal government decided that there should be a central not-for-profit agency to coordinate technology and supply chain innovation for the Canadian book market. While that sounds about as thrilling as a three-day lecture on HVAC engineering, we have been able to move the industry very quickly in some very exciting directions. Canada benefits from relatively small size, a general tendency towards collaboration, being a cross-roads country with ties to the U.S., UK, and EU, and a community of quite forward-thinking retailers and system vendors. It lets us get things rolling quickly, gather feedback early and often, and push the envelope a bit more than larger markets.
   
   Some examples: from a somewhat stagnant state in '03, B2B e-commerce now accounts for 85-90% of all business documents; EDI invoices and ASNs are fully supported through the publishing community; even independent retailers do EDI-based receiving. BNC SalesData, our national sales tracking service, launched in 2005, tracks sales, stock position, orders outstanding on every title, without modeling or estimation, on 70% of the book market. In a nice mouse-eats-elephant story, our Canadian Bibliographic Standard was adopted more-or-less in its entirety as the BISG Metadata Best Practice Guideline for the U.S. market for both ONIX and Excel.
   
   Then there is the more forward-looking work: collaborative sales data mining for independents, backlist optimization and forecasting research, industry cost analysis on returns, digital publishing trends, our annual Technology Forum. And on it goes.
   
   
2. You announced a Data Synchronization initiative in mid-summer. Can you give us some back-ground on this project, the status and where you see the initiative going over the next six months? What is your time table and what is your hoped for end result?
   
   We approached GDSN with a set of assumptions that looked something like this:
   
   1. Publishers already have a data sharing standard -- ONIX -- that they have embraced and invested in. They shouldn't have to learn another one. Make it simple!
   2. GDSN currently serves a small part of the retail sector, but if it became ubiquitous at some point in the future, how can we protect publishers from a price perspective?
   3. Think global, start local. The G in GDSN is there for a reason, so let's not assume that we're just making a Canadian service for Canadian publishers and retailers.
   
   Those first principles have guided our efforts over the past few months. We have been working with Commport, our GDSN data pool partner, on the construction of an ONIX-to-GDSN bridge that is now in testing. Timelines are very dependent on the retailers and wholesalers involved, but we hope to be well into the pilot six months from now. From our perspective, the "pilot" itself doesn't begin until we are moving active title data from a real publisher to a real retailer who is actually going to use that data in purchasing and POS systems. That's an important point: the challenge isn't getting the data into, or out of, the pool; it's getting that data into retailer systems so that it supplants the current mix of spreadsheets and paper forms. Until then, the conversation hasn't changed. Data conversion is easy, adoption is hard.
   
   In parallel, we are preparing a draft submission to GS1 regarding additions to the GDSN Global Data Dictionary to make it more relevant to the book trade. That will certainly spend some time in the loving embrace of the BISG Metadata Committee before heading to GS1.
   
   From a pricing standpoint, I think we've come up with the best possible model for publishers. A free 1-year pilot, unlimited upload and publishing to the global network, with the clock starting when the data goes into production with retailers (i.e. not when testing starts, but when it ends). Then very low per-SKU fees that are capped at a shockingly low rate, just in case this breaks out of the mass market and into the trade.
   
   
3. What issues have you encountered that were unexpected? Given that the book industry is ‘fitting’ in to a set of standards that have been developed for other industries how much of an issue has it been trying to marry the existing data structures with our industry?
   
   Always lots to learn, which is part of the fun. Some highlights:
   * The extent to which GDSN stands to benefit independent wholesalers, many of whom have never really grasped ONIX in their relationship with publishers, and who have to serve a retail community who couldn't care less about book-industry-specific standards.
   * We've talked to several publishers who have, because of various retail relationships, been required to submit to GDSN data pools over the past five years. None of them have seen their data make it into production systems. It's safe to say that there are some data pools out there who have been less than candid about where GDSN data really gets used and by whom.
   * Current GDSN costs per SKU or ISBN have been absolutely egregious! $25 or more per SKU per year? That's great if you are in consumer packaged goods with 100 SKUs worth $50M each, not so great if you're a mid-sized publisher with a line of DIY books selling into general retail. Time to fix that, I think...
   
   In terms of fitting in, there are definitely some things that need to be improved in the Global Data Dictionary if books are going to find a happy home in GDSN. GPC Product Forms aren't perfect for books. You can't pass along an author, just a title. Things like that. It's workable for mass market applications, but I think the goal should be to get the Canadian/US standard fields well-represented and then build from there.
   
   
4. Is there an on-going relationship with GS1 here? Do you anticipate the publishing industry will be exposed to best practices and perhaps learn from the GS1 community?
   If so, where do you see the greatest potential benefit?
   
   We'll be working with GS1 on the standards and data dictionary issues, but we have avoided a relationship with 1Sync, their data pool service provider. When we started watching this space, we realized that one of the great things about GDSN is that it's an open, certified standard, which makes the data pool game an excellent market for aggressive fast-followers. We selected a vendor with a strong track record in high-volume data processing who has made a name for themselves enabling whole industries on GDSN but who was also willing to toss out the rulebook on GDSN pricing to meet the needs of the book industry.
   
   In terms of who learns from who, I think that GS1 has a lot to learn from the book industry. "Industry-With-Lots-of-Low-Price-Point-SKUs" is still reasonably new for GDSN, and nobody does massive numbers of discrete, non-variant SKUs like the book industry. They are working with Music and DVD now, which should help, but Music and DVD aren't nearly as sophisticated as the book industry regarding product data (much to the dismay of any retailer who has ever sold both!) I'd argue that we have spent more time and effort working out the issues related to standardization of rich product description metadata than any other industry, so I think the conversation is going to be "Here's ONIX, which we know and love. Let's figure out how much realistically needs to be in GDSN." With any luck, we can extend the data dictionary accordingly.
   
   
5. Will your Data Synchronization initiative influence similar initiatives in the US and UK.
   
   Will those markets make full use of your path finding or more to the point will they have to develop their own initiatives? Getting GDSN off the ground is going to require the concerted effort of several national markets. The GS1 data vetting process requires broad support to propose changes to the Global Data Dictionary. We are happy to lead the charge, but we want to make sure that this meets the needs of the larger book market as well, so plenty of collaboration is required.

Michael can be reached at BookNet Canada: mtamblyn(At)booknetcanada.com

Borders Loyalty Program

Mrs PND received a quite extraordinary promotional email from Borders Books this weekend which indicated that she had been selected to receive a package of substantial partner benefits just because she was a Borders Rewards member. Aside from the fact she has no recollection being a rewards member, the Borders Rewards Perks program offers substantial benefits to "rewards members like you" it says. If you go to the perks site linked to above you will find many many discount programs which regrettably seem to be perfectly targeted to Mr. & Mrs. PND's lavish lifestyle.

It is hard to understand what they are trying to achieve with this program. Perhaps they are attempting to mimic the 'retail emporium' that is Amazon.com in advance of launching their own web site. Or it could be a simple attempt to capture as many web consumers as possible so that they can promote the launch of the web site to an even broader base of customers.

Affiliations are often effective for merchandising and brand extension but the sheer number of bonus and discount offers seems excessive. Few if any of these appear to be 'for our Borders rewards customers only' and, as such the list of benefits may be a nice consolidation of existing discount and bonus programs. (Hey thanks!).

Some of these expire soon so hurry to your nearest Borders website so you can shop elsewhere.

Borders Australia

Speculation that the Borders Australian and New Zealand stores have been sold to Pacific Equity Partners are surfacing from a rather unique source. The India Times is reporting that industrial and services behemoth Tata Industries participated in the last round of bids for the Borders unit and also suggests the price agreed for the store operations will top A$125mm. There is speculation that PEP will also get the Singapore store and may have ascribed more deal value to the Borders brand which they may seek to extend into SE Asia. More details will follow.

IndiaTimes

CBS Outdoor Announce Times Square WiFi Hot Spot

Billboard owner CBS Outdoor is announcing a partnership with the MTA that will create a mid-town wide wi-fi hotspot covering most of Times Square.

CBS Corporation announced today that it will "light up" midtown Manhattan with the creation of the"CBS Mobile Zone," a wireless high-speed network enabling New Yorkers with Wi-Fi-enabled cell phones, laptops or other devices to access the Internet for free, and make voice over internet (VOI) calls. The Wi-Fi Hot Zone,which is available today in certain areas, will be fully operational on by month's end with a footprint of more than 20 city blocks from Times Square to Central Park South and from 6th Avenue to 8th Avenue. This initiative is part of a 6-month pilot program with the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and New York City Transit to test the potential communications capabilities of Wi-Fi technology.

Check it out. Just in time for the Kindle

Amazon Kindle to be Launched Monday

According to a report in CNet this morning there is to be a 'high-profile' launch party at the W hotel in Union Square to announce the long anticipated Kindle ebook reader. From the report,

The Kindle is equipped with a Wi-Fi connection that taps into an Amazon e-book store, which users can access to purchase new electronic books--and Amazon has reportedly signed onto a deal with Sprint for EVDO access. Additionally, the device comes with a headphone jack for audiobooks, as well as an e-mail address.

The devise is expected to sell for $399 and among its content deals the company has apparently negotiated partnerships with as many as 100 newspaper publishers. The company is also saying it will have from launch the largest inventory of all e-books available. The report also confirmed that the initial SONY e-book reader has been 'a bust' but SONY expects their second version with improved features to fair better.

CNET

Virtual Felony

According to the BBC, a 17 year old Dutch boy was arrested for allegedly steeling $3500 of virtual furniture from the 'homes' of residents of the online community Habbo. According to website administrators, the real world threat of Id theft also exists in the virtual world and this perp and several co-conspirators convinced some Habbo players to fork over their passwords. Since the Habbo credits used to buy stuff players use in the game are purchased with real money, steeling someones couch is a 'real' crime. I wonder if they will do time in a real jail?