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Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Supply Dies In Irrelevance

For most of history, publishers have exercised control by managing supply. Publishers decided what was published, when and where it appeared, how it was structured, and how it could be read. This model governed research and professional content, where scarcity, prestige, and distribution barriers established the publisher’s control. In this world, users adapted to the content and their workflows and processes where governed by the methods employed by the publisher. Increasingly the opposite situation is developing as AI tools gain acceptance and become embedded.

AI is shifting value away from static units of content and toward dynamic use. Of course, this isn’t happening overtly but that is the effective reality. Researchers, professionals, and students increasingly expect to interrogate, remix, summarise, and contextualise information on their own terms. Instead of navigating publisher‑defined products—journals, books, databases—users are defining their own workflows and asking systems to pull insight from content wherever it lives. Prompt engineering becomes both art form and practical need. The locus of control moves from supply to demand, from what is published to how it is used.

The impact on publishers is already evident. Traditional value propositions built around access, distribution, and format are under pressure. When AI tools can synthesise thousands of articles into a single response, the journal issue or monograph becomes less visible, even if the underlying content, structure and method remains critical. This is not simply a discoverability problem; it is a power shift. Control based on gatekeeping access weakens when users no longer need to “enter” publisher platforms to extract value.

This creates a real risk of disintermediation. Publisher brands can be reduced to upstream data sources powering someone else’s interface, with little direct relationship to the end user. At the same time, users gain new leverage. They increasingly decide which content integrates cleanly into AI‑mediated workflows and which does not. What content is useful and what is fluff.  (We will find out there’s a lot of fluff). Content that is difficult to discover, poorly structured, or legally ambiguous is or will be simply bypassed. Demand, rather than supply, defines relevance.

Many publishers are already responding to this shift. Elsevier’s development of AI‑enabled products such as Scopus AI reflects a move away from passive hosting toward active participation in researcher workflows—answering questions, mapping concepts, and accelerating discovery. Wolters Kluwer has embedded AI across its professional platforms to support decision‑making rather than document retrieval, recognising that its users value outcomes over exhaustive research and reading. Springer Nature’s partnerships around AI‑assisted writing and review tools similarly acknowledge that interaction now matters as much as publication.

These examples illustrate an important point: publishers are not necessarily losing power, but they are losing a particular kind of power. Control no longer comes from restricting access or enforcing rigid usage models. Instead, influence comes from being indispensable within workflows defined by users and mediated by AI. The value proposition in metadata, taxonomy, or simple organisation, which may have been obscure may now attain greater recognition.  In the past, content owners banked on friction to support their value  prop: Power now shifts from gatekeeping to enablement.

A critical enabler of this transition is metadata. In an AI‑driven environment, content that is not well described is effectively invisible. Rich, consistent, machine‑readable metadata allows systems to understand what content is about, how it relates to other work, and why it should be surfaced in response to a particular question. Metadata provides semantic meaning rather than surface description, enabling discovery based on intent rather than keyword coincidence. Taxonomic management should be prioritised.

Persistent identifiers, structured abstracts, domain‑specific taxonomies, and clear rights metadata ensure that content can travel across platforms without losing context, attribution, or provenance. As discovery increasingly happens outside publisher‑owned environments—within AI assistants, enterprise systems, and institutional tools—metadata becomes the primary mechanism through which publishers maintain visibility,  relevance and ownership. In this sense, metadata is no longer back‑office infrastructure; it is strategic capital.

Metadata also plays a central role in trust. In a landscape increasingly populated by synthetic and unverified material, signals such as peer‑review status, editorial oversight, versioning, and correction history influence what AI systems choose to surface. Users may not see these signals directly, but the systems acting on their behalf do. Publishers who expose trust markers clearly increase both discoverability and credibility at precisely the moment when reliability is questioned.

The balance of power that emerges may be asymmetrical but will not zero‑sum. Users now dominate the how of interaction: how content is queried, combined, and applied. Publishers retain influence over the quality of what circulates: accuracy, provenance, editorial accountability, and long‑term stewardship. What has changed is that authority must now be earned at the point of use, not assumed at the point of publication and preeminence is not assured.

This reality requires concrete change. Content must be structured and enriched at source, not retrofitted. Licensing models need to articulate clearly how content can be indexed, summarised, cited, or embedded by AI systems. Publishers must design for modular, question‑based discovery, recognising that users increasingly want answers rather than documents.  Publishers may have to eliminate content silos and/or consider broader partnership arrangements.

High‑quality content remains essential fuel for AI, and publishers are uniquely positioned as creators, mentors and custodians. But relevance in an AI‑driven world no longer flows from owning supply. It flows from aligning with demand—supporting how knowledge is actually accessed, used, and interpreted. Publishers who recognise this shift, and adapt accordingly, can remain central to the ecosystems they helped build. Those who cling to a supply‑led model risk discovering that control, once lost, is not replaced by negotiation, but by irrelevance.


Read more about the impact of AI on usage.

Wednesday, January 07, 2026

Predictions 2026: My Friend HAL Makes the Future


Predictions have been a hit or miss phenomenon at PND over the past few years (since 2018 it seems) and in the intervening years since my last essay things have changed. For instance, I could have had this written (in my voice) by copilot and it would be pretty good; but where’s the satisfaction in that? I could also offer the option for the post to be read aloud by Clint Eastwood. The good, the bad, and the ugly bits.

It’s not news to say AI and LLMs are both exciting and terrifying. There is a joke job posting going around for a candidate employed only to pull the plug out of the wall if the robot gets out of control and risks the end of humanity.  That said, humanity has some explaining to do at the moment: It’s a tossup which offers the worse potential outcome.

There is little doubt of the impact of AI and AI tools on virtually every aspect of our life now. In most cases the impact has been modest but I don’t need to go far out on a limb to say AI will become both fundamental to everyday activities but also often invisible to us very soon. The practical use of AI tools is eliminating grunt work like spreadsheet manipulation, document summaries, article comparisons and writing generally. Yesterday, I used Gemini to update a technology company profile essay I had written five years ago with the instruction to update the essay with new information and updates occurring since the original article was written. I would not immediately ‘publish’ this essay but in my estimation, it will take only 20% of the time to do the updated essay as it did to do the original and most of that 20% will be to confirm the AI work is accurate.  (I could use a different tool to confirm the Gemini version is accurate).  

Companies are aggressively encouraging staff to experiment and use AI tools. We are not done with the teething problems and work must continue on AI governance and acceptable practices which is why many corporations are establishing a ‘Chief AI officer’ to manage these aspects and establish internal and generally accepted standards. While this activity is almost universal across industries, I believe there is too much over exuberance regarding the short term impacts of AI and there will be a stock market reset sometime in 2026. Longer term, AI will have more impact than the personal computer – perhaps more than the wheel.

Here are my predictions for 2026:

  • Robot tax. This idea will gain more steam in 2026 and legislation will be proposed to tax the use of robots and AI tools which ‘replace’ human labor with the objective of substituting for lost welfare tax (Social Security) revenues. The goal shall be to provide supplemental income, investment for (re)training and retirement income. Strongly endorsed by white collar unions it will naturally be opposed by business. Despite the tax, “robots” will remain significantly cost effective versus humanity.
  • AI enabled editorial operating models. Generative AI tools will evolve from ‘on request’ or ‘user enabled’ tools to fully integrated editorial solutions designed to accept manuscripts, suggest editorial improvements, establish predictive success metrics, rewrite/redraft submissions, provide suggested marketing and sales attributes and create and/or propose ancillary product features such as video/audio and reader guides. Publishers will administer review cycles at defined points in the process as well as the formal approval process. There is the likelihood that editorial and production cycle times will be cut by 50-75% and through put increased exponentially. Sub rights and permissions will be handled in similar automated manner.  Governance and bias issues will remain challenging requiring human intervention for a significant amount of time.
  • Speakers bureau. Per my suggestion to use the voice of Clint Eastwood we will see more and more license deals for voices and image (avatars). This will not only have implications for accessibility but will accord user determined language/localization without the need for studio time. This opportunity will also apply to character virtualization with authors and media creators invited into the creative process to formalize audio and avatar versions of their characters. Whether this could evolve into sponsor and spokesperson partnerships would be an interesting further enhancement.
  • LLM modelling will increasingly see value in the creation of ‘siloed’ versions such that the best available ingestible content will be sourced for definitive RAG like LLM models. These subject specific will become the category leaders and form a barrier to entry with the source material(s) tied up in license deals. A important component of this scenario will be the inclusion of standard ontology and managed dictionaries which will govern terminology and interrelationships.
  • Multi-modal publishing in academic science. During 2026 we will see a major academic journal go full ‘multi-modal’ whereby publishing consists of text, audio, short/long form video, info graphic, raw (test) data, class instruction, etc., and in any language all available on publication day.  Additionally, metadata will be constructed to enable AI enablement within LLM models with clear context and attribution enabled.
  • Usage data: Remains a conundrum for the academic community with librarians confused by COUNTER reports showing precipitous declining usage but increased or stable scholar/researcher satisfaction.  Publishers will pressure the industry to create new usage models although there will be no consensus on how to do this. In a significant related scenario, the five major commercial academic publishers will proactively close their platforms to non-licensed LLM/AI tools access by mid-year.

We are in an age (or entering an age) where the strategic questions about business options, tactics and consequences are potentially existential. Our businesses will not operate the same in five years as they do today and everything about our businesses will be different because of the impacts of AI and how LLM models are commercialized. Consider the above as suggested guide posts in exploring how your business will change but most importantly don't get left on the dock as the tide turns.

Reach out if you would like to discuss consulting projects around these or other business/operational challenges you may be facing. michael . cairns @ outlook.com or via linkedin.

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Time for A Publisher ID?


 

In the 1870s R.R. Bowker began publishing The American Catalog which collected publisher titles into one compendium book. The first edition of this book was surprisingly large, but its most useful aspect was that it organized publisher books into a usable format. The concept was not sophisticated: The Bowker team gathered publisher catalogs, bound and reprinted them so that they were more or less uniform. In subsequent years Books In Print became three primary components: The Subject Guide, Author Guide and Publisher Index (or PID). Each was separated into distinct parts, but it was the PID which held everything together.

When a user found a title in the author or subject index they would also be referred to the PID index to find specific information about the publisher including (the obvious) how to order the book. At some point, Bowker began applying an alphanumeric “Bowker Id” to Publisher names so that the database could be organized around the publisher information.

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the ISBN was introduced to the US retail market and Bowker was (and still is) the only agency able to assign ISBN numbers in the US. Included in the ISBN syntax was a “publisher” prefix such that a block of numbers could be assigned specifically to one publisher. The idea, while good in concept, did not work well in practice. For example, in an effort to encourage adoption of ISBNs the agencies assigned some large publishers a small two digit publisher prefix which resulted in a very large block of individual ISBNs (seven digits plus the check digit). Even after 50 years, many of these blocks are only partially used (and wasted) because the publisher output was far less than anticipated. A second problem was that publishers, imprints and lists were bought and sold which made a mess of the whole idea. (In the above image the prefix is 4 digits).

At Bowker, we recognized that our Publisher Information Database was a crown jewel and a key component of our Books In Print database. Despite many requests we never licensed this data separately and this was a significant reason retailers such as Barnes & Noble, Borders, Follett and others licensed Books In Print. Because the information was so important, we spent a lot of time maintaining the accuracy and the structure of the data.

Publishers who acquired ISBNs from the Bowker agency were a key input to this database – beginning in the 1980s but continuing to the present. Not all new ISBNs go to small independent publishers and there remains consistent demand from established publishers for new numbers even today. To be useful, this publisher information needs to be structured and organized accurately and is only possible with continued application of good practice. During my time at Bowker, the editorial team met regularly with publishers to both improve the timeliness and accuracy of their book metadata but also to confirm their corporate structure. We wanted to ensure that all individual ISBNs rolled up to the correct imprint, business unit and corporate owner. This effort was continuous and sometimes engaged the corporation’s office of general counsel and was frequently detailed and time consuming.

A few years after I left Bowker, one of my consulting clients presented me with a proof of concept to programmatically create a publisher id database. In concept it looked possible to do; however. I pointed out all the reasons why this would become difficult to complete and then to maintain. They went ahead anyway but after a year or so abandoned the work because they could not accurately disambiguate publisher information nor confirm corporate reporting structures.

Today there is no industry wide standard publisher id code but the idea comes up frequently as one the industry should pursue. As with many new standards efforts it will be the roll out and adoption of the standard which will prove difficult. Establishing an initial leap forward could represent a promising start by using data which might already be available or available for license.

Bowker (and all global ISBN agencies) are required to publish all new publisher prefixes each year and this information could also be a useful starting point. Bowker is not the only aggregator with publisher data (we were just the best by a significant margin) and another supply chain partner might be willing to contribute their publisher data as a starting point. This could establish a solid foundation to build on, but realistically any effort will fail if the maintenance aspect of the effort is not understood and recognized, and a strong market imperative isn’t widely agreed and supported.

When (I)SBN was launched in the UK in the late 1960s it succeeded because the largest retailer (W.H. Smith) enforced the strong business case for its adoption. Globally ISBN has gone on to become one of the most successful supply chain initiatives in (retail) history and the entire industry is dependent on this standard. (It has even survived Amazon’s cynical ASIN). If there is a business case for the publisher id this needs to be powerful, obvious and accord universal benefits: Mutual interest and money can be powerful motivators but having a policeman like W.H. Smith will help as well.


More:

The ISBN is Dead

ChapGPT "thoughts" on the history of identifiers.

Note: I ran R.R. Bowker for a while and was also Chairman of ISBN International.

Monday, October 19, 2020

MediaWeek Report (Vol 13, No 12): Quarterly Newsletter - Articles of Interest and Consulting Update

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Our World


Business dislocation, managing remote workers and plant and infrastructure management are the significant issues we've been addressing with our clients over the past six months. Despite the uncertainty of the US election and the worry over COVID, our clients are thinking critically about how they emerge from these challenges during 2021 prepared to operate more efficiently and effectively.  We've helped our clients evaluate and experiment with new business models, technology improvements and employee relations which will enable these companies to emerge better prepared and stronger over the next few years. At Information Media Partners we are always happy to take a call (908 938 4889) or email to discuss your particular challenge.

Check out the following business articles of interest:
Client Review: Apple Daily and Jimmy Lai: Trying to save democracy in Hong Kong
Article: When artists gather together for their advantage
Interview: Textbooks are giving way to Courseware at an increasing rate
 
Consulting: Profiles of some of our consulting work
Publishing & Industry News Clips
OCLC's Vision for the Next Generation of Metadata

NYU Business School Prof Galloway on the Future of Higher Ed

Pew Research: Experts Predict More Digital Innovation

Beyond the Pandemic, Libraries Look Toward a New Era - NYTimes

A Guide to the Newsletter Economy - NY Magazine

Can Amazon Keep Growing Like a Youthful Startup? - Economist

Why Managing Uncertainty is a Key Management Skill - Strategy+Business

Building a Digital New York Times: Exit Interview with Mark Thompson - McKinsey

See more at Flipboard
Information Media Partners Consulting
Where we have been spending our consulting time recently...
  • A prominent association publisher asked us to help redefine their fulfillment and distribution options
  • A large library association asked us to facilitate a series of meetings with a key retail partner
  • We conducted a finance function re-engineering review and defined options for new software and process improvement
You can review more of our project citations by following this link

The coming year will be challenging and you will need help. Please get in touch to discuss a project and/or your long-term management needs.  (michael.cairns@infomediapartners.com)
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