Only Fools and Horses: How one of the funniest scenes got done

This week on British morning television, Sir David Jason retold the story about producing one of UK TV's funniest scenes.  F&H is one of the most loved UK shows and was rumored to be in consideration for a US version - which thankfully never happened.

And here is the full clip from YouTube.

Do AI Tools Harken the Death of the Academic Subscription?

The late show with Steven Colbert is cancelled and, like me you may be spluttering with anger over another CBS sell out, but the reason why this show was cancelled had more to do with the combination of money, demographics and highlight reels and less the thin skinned dear leader.

When Johnny Carson was at the height of popularity he regularly pulled in 11million viewers per night and if you missed the show, you were out of luck at the water cooler the next day. In 1975, Carson’s show made about $300MM in today’s dollars. Today Colbert brings in just about 2MM viewers and according to CBS losses $40MM a year. As if that’s not enough, Colbert also has demographics and the highlight reel working against him.

Today’s younger audiences are not predisposed to appointment TV and do not watch Colbert at 11:30 each night. They may, however, see the highlight reels in any number of places but the joke is on the content provider. These highlights aren’t monetized, and it is now much too late to fix what seemed like a really good idea at the time: to break the show into funny bits to drive traffic to watch the whole thing. That model, now proven broken, only benefits Google, Yahoo, Ticktock and other ‘channels.

In academic publishing we may be on track to make a similar catastrophic mistake in allowing our content to be programmatically snipped into ‘key takeaways’ and ‘two paragraph summaries’.  As AI tools fast become standard in search, traffic to the full text of research articles is showing the early signs of a significant dislocation. Traffic counted as ‘inquiries’ – generated by AI – is increasing. Pretty soon, just like Colbert all the best jokes are going to be free before the show is even over and these jokes will not have driven more traffic to the full show. Replace ‘joke’ with ‘research’ and publishers will soon have some explaining to do to the librarian about the collapse of full text retrievals.

It may be impossible to change the dynamic, but publishers must consider collecting transaction fees from these search partners for each of the AI ‘inquiries’ they perform. Otherwise, I think this may mark the beginning of the end for the subscription model. Contributing to this is the march of consumer preference, which as in the Colbert example above, young researchers are not methodically collecting 200 research articles and working through each: No, they use AI on 1000 instead and generate summaries, cross references and a draft paper within a fraction of the time. Publishers’ value add becomes frayed in this scenario.

It may seem strange to draw comparisons between a television show and academic research, but the changing dynamics are similar. Consider these and how they might apply to academic publishing,

• Pressure on legacy media: Colbert ad revenue dropped $20MM between 2024 and 2025 while viewership in the key 18-49 age bracket fell by 20%. Academic researchers 18 – 49 are our key demographic and they be different in their behavior

• Market fragmentation and platform shifts: Colbert’s monologues and segments go viral online but these don’t generate revenue like traditional TV ads. Without ads (read subscription) there is no economic model.
• Decline of linear viewing: User behavior has radically changed in the past 20 years and media consumption is far more driven by on-demand and at-convenience such that the consumer of media (read “researcher”) is in charge.
• Strategic realignment: Just like CBS and other media companies are realigning so are academic publishers and technology companies forming alliances which may redefine how academic publishers create value. There is likely to be more consolidation rather than less in academic publishing as strategic realignment takes shape.

Publishers need to be very wary of how they work with AI companies and search companies with embedded AI tools. On the surface, this functionality benefits the researcher and at least in the short term makes publishers seem tech savvy and accommodating of researcher needs. However, if researchers can retrieve data, information and research with significantly less effort the value proposition – regardless how cynical that sounds – for the publisher begins to erode. 

With some of the strongest media properties such as Netflix, Apple + and HBO now protected behind subscription walls (in contrast to legacy television), it would be ironic if academic publishers which started from this place of significant strength gave it all away by letting in the AI Trojan horse. Many publishers may also believe they have 'channel' strength when in fact they may have more 'brand' strength where researchers form stronger bonds with specific journal titles. Behind the paywall, perhaps more can be done to foster this brand strength and thus make the 'channel' even stronger. With respect to working with AI and LLMs , one of my colleagues said the other day, “I don’t know if I am shooting myself in the foot or the face”. 

If you have your own subscription platform, keep pace with AI functionality, engage in a broader manner with users but don’t let the horse in.

Fan Fiction: What Writes Better, Simple or Complex? (From PsycArticles)

I am reading a short book on "Simplicity" and the relationship between simplicity and complexity and thought I would also do some research on PsycNet to see what recent research existed. As it happened I found the following article on Fan Fiction (topically of interest). Turns out the more complex the fan fiction story the better it is reviewed and read!

 

APA's PsycArticles contains more than 250,000 full text research articles in psychology but many of these articles have real world business implications relevant to researchers and students in academic disciplines outside psychology and social sciences.  

 

The Diamonds and the Dross: A Quantitative Exploration of Integrative Complexity in Fan fiction by Hayley McCullough investigates the psychological and linguistic characteristics of fan fiction by analyzing its integrative complexity, measuring how well a text recognizes and integrates multiple perspectives. McCullough's research compared 45 popular and 45 unpopular fan fictions from the Archive of Our Own (AO3) platform, using "Hits" (views) and "Kudos" (community approval) as metrics for popularity.

 

Contrary to expectation, that popular fan fiction would show lower complexity—a trend observed in other pop culture domains like film—the study revealed that popular fan fiction consistently scored higher in all forms of complexity across various categories. The finding suggests fan fiction readers prefer more thought provoking and nuanced narratives, which was found regardless whether popularity was measured by views or community approval. The researchers concluded that there is a robust preference for complexity in fan fiction.

 

The article proposes several explanations for this unexpected trend:

• The text-based nature of fan fiction may encourage more complex storytelling (in the absence of visual cues).
• Fan fiction's role as a form of cultural critique. This resonates with the idea that content, including (fan) fiction, often provides insight into complex real-world issues.
• A desire among fans to explore underrepresented identities and perspectives. This can be seen in popular characters like Stieg Larsson's Lisbeth Salander, who was potentially inspired by a "grown-up Pippi Longstocking" and represents a "dysfunctional girl" who nonetheless directs her own destiny, hinting at the appeal of complex and non-traditional identities.

I have explored the fan fiction 'marketplace' a few times on PND and the researchers also reference well known examples including Harry Potter fan websites such as MuggleNet and The Leaky Cauldron where fans move the Harry Potter story in new directions and different directions (sometimes, not always supported by Rowling). Many of these popular fan sites provide vigorous and unedited feedback to authors which, while potentially intimidating, creates an environment which encourages quality. 

 

The Implications for Publishers: Publishers are encouraged to "engage deeply where it matters" within fan fiction communities rather than just marketing to them as readers rather than content creators. CompletelyNovel.com uses reviews, ratings, and sales data from the social web to help authors prove market viability, demonstrate how community feedback can influence success, and model of "post-publication peer review," where readers assess content quality, aligns with the community-driven nature of fan fiction communities. The research conducted suggests that platforms and content communities that filter for complex or nuanced narratives would be highly valued by readers and creators. 

 

In summary, successful fan fiction is likely to be more complex suggesting a strong appetite for intellectually stimulating content, in turn suggesting commercialization should emphasize deeper more thought provoking story lines, character development and cultural complexity. As the authors note in their closing that there may be more to do to understand fan fiction and the implications of their research: 

As previously discussed, fan fiction as a research topic has been a largely ignored by researchers and scholars outside the qualitative humanities’ scholarship, and only a few studies focus specifically on examining and understanding the underlining psychology of fan fiction, most notably Vinney and Dill-Shackleford (2018). Alongside that article, these studies begin filling this particularly research gap and provides a strong foundation going forward. It is the responsibility of future researcher to continue filling the research gap and build up these studies.

More from APA PsycNet on "Fan Fiction":

Strange new worlds: Social content in popular Star Trek fan fiction versus commercial novels

Fan fiction as a vehicle for meaning making: Eudaimonic appreciation, hedonic enjoyment, and other perspectives on fan engagement with television.

Towards an AI Governance Stucture for Business

APA's PsycArticles contains more than 250,000 full text research articles in psychology but many of these articles have real world business implications relevant to researchers and students in academic disciplines outside psychology and social sciences. Here is an interesting example on Artificial Intelligence.

A recently published article in Artificial Intelligence and Organizational Strategy: Ethical and Governance Implications by Larry W. Norton (Consulting Psychology Journal, Vol 77(2), Jun 2025, 131-141) addresses not just how AI will fundamentally redefine work but how we must implement governance and take management responsibility to manage outcomes – both intended and unintended.

As Norton’s research makes clear, AI is not just about automation; AI is shaping strategy, driving innovation, and changing the definition of everything from customer value to product development. Referencing several AI use cases including CapitalOne and Mayo Clinic, Norton proffers that if you’re not thinking about AI strategically, you’re already behind.

There are real risks—algorithmic bias, data privacy, even unintended societal harm and the article is clear we need to be smart about how AI is deployed, balancing the pursuit of profit with responsible implementation, starting with low-risk, high-impact use cases and scaling up responsibly as capabilities mature. Even a casual awareness of how AI has dominated recent business and economic commentary would make clear that we must be smart about how AI is deployed.  This is where Norton offers a formula – based on research – for corporations to manage their AI implementations and make governance not simply a ‘nice to have’ but a business imperative.

The author lays out what effective AI governance looks like: everything from ensuring data quality to having clear stakeholder accountability, regulatory compliance and crucially, ethical oversight. Norton references established frameworks like the National Institute of Standards andTechnology’s AI Risk Management Framework and the IEEE’s Ethically Aligned Design, stressing transparency, explainability, fairness, and accountability in AI systems.

Norton suggests three key recommendations:

• treat AI risk mitigation as a competitive differentiator,
• tailor governance models to the ethical and business risks of specific AI applications,
• start small and scale responsibly

He also calls for increased AI literacy among consultants and organizational leaders, arguing that understanding AI’s capabilities and limitations are essential for ethical and effective deployment and significantly that AI oversight needs to go right up to board level particularly in firms where AI development and/or implementation is central to the business strategy.

Find this article: Consulting Psychology Journal, Vol 77(2), Jun 2025, 131-141 

A sample of further PsycArticle readings on the intersection of psychology and Artificial Intelligence  include:

• How and for whom using generative AI affects creativity: A field experiment. 
• Unethical and harmful effects of artificial intelligence on human interactions and well-being: What organizational consultants can do.
• Consultants’ and managers’ ethical and legal responsibilities in artificial intelligence applications.

More information about APA products and subscription options is located here.

DC US Attorney Sends Query Letters to Academic Publishers about Research Practices

Given our current political environment this outreach by the US Attorney for DC has been widely anticipated by many in the academic publishing community. Unknown is how many similar letters have been sent (if any).  What this requests suggests is that, in the view of the DC court, publishers have been tipping the scales in the conduct and publication of research such that they have a bias contrary to the views and assumptions of the republican administration and/or those on the right generally.

On the surface, there isn't much illegitimate about these questions: they are valid; however, the purpose for asking them and the interpretation of the answers is where academic and association publishers may have legitimate concerns.

 

Federal Reserve Report on High Ed Institution Viability - It is Bleak.

There has been a decades long (at least) discussion about the viability of a certain segment of the higher education institution market and assumptions there would be a significant contraction in the number of schools. Now, things may have taken a turn for the worst. This report by the Federal Reserve (published before trumpocomics) anticipated an acceleration in the closure of 'at risk' schools. These are primary schools with small enrollments, a dependency on tuition for revenue and with limited or no endowment.

I used Copilot to create this summary:

1. Enrollment Declines and Financial Distress: The report highlights that enrollment declines, particularly due to the "demographic cliff" and the COVID-19 pandemic, are significant predictors of financial distress and college closures. ​ Enrollment fell by 15% from 2010 to 2021, and the trend may continue, exacerbating financial challenges for institutions. ​
2. Predictive Models for College Closures: The authors developed predictive models using machine learning techniques, which significantly outperform traditional linear probability models and existing federal accountability metrics. ​ The preferred model, using the XGBoost algorithm, showed an 84% accuracy rate in predicting closures within three years for the riskiest institutions. ​
3. Impact of Missing Data: A high degree of missing data among colleges that eventually close is a key impediment to identifying at-risk institutions. ​ Machine learning models, particularly XGBoost, are more effective at handling incomplete data and improving predictive accuracy compared to traditional methods. ​
4. Financial Metrics and Predictive Accuracy: Key financial metrics such as operating margin, debt levels, and changes in revenue and expenses are strong predictors of college closures. ​ The machine learning models demonstrated that ratios of financial metrics and changes in these metrics are more important than absolute levels for predicting closures.
5. Future Closure Predictions: Simulations based on the predictive models suggest that the demographic cliff could significantly increase annual college closures. ​ Under worst-case scenarios, there could be up to 80 additional closures annually, affecting over 100,000 students and 20,880 staff members, highlighting the potential widespread impact on local communities and economies.

According to Best Colleges, over 75 institutions have closed, merged or announced closure since the start of COVID and they estimate this had impacted almost 50,000 students.

From the report:

These financial pressures on higher education have elevated financial distress — up to and including closures — as a major higher education policy issue. While there have been predictions of a wave of closures for the last decade (e.g., Eide, 2018; Horn, 2018), most colleges survived the pandemic thanks to timely federal support and emergency actions taken to freeze or reduce personnel costs (Natow, 2021). However, the withdrawal of pandemic-era federal funding, along with existing stressors, likely resulted in an increase in closures during 2023 (Sanchez, 2024) and into 2024. There has also been a wave of colleges declaring financial exigency, eliminating academic programs and employees in an effort to cut costs and to avoid potential closures (Ambrose & Nietzel, 2024). Even flagship universities such as West Virginia University and Pennsylvania State University have pursued sizable reductions in the number of academic programs as they face budget deficits (Burke, 2024; Povich, 2023).

Unmentioned in this report is the negative impact of international students which typically pay much higher tuition fees. While international students may not be a target cohort for the schools in this 'at risk' group it is possible that an overall decrease in international students could expand this 'at risk' group (make it larger). Additionally, smaller schools often rent out their campus to foreign student programs for English and cultural programs during summer recess but it is entirely possible that these programs will dry up if they haven't already done so. The forecast may be bleak.