Nash on Publishing

The Globe and Mail asked Richard Nash of Soft Skull Books about the state of publishing., Here is a sample:

JD Yes, and here's the question. Let's assume print-on-demand and digital publishing take off (and it will sooner than later for the small press and special markets). How do we help writers, and readers, realize this could be the best thing that ever happened?

RN The onus is on the independent publishers to embrace rather than be suspicious of it. I do often feel that I'm viewed as a bit of a curiosity in the field of literary publishing for being so gung-ho about the digital download book. Which is especially ironic because the suspicions derive, I think, from their personal affection for physical books, which would have been part of what brought them into this field. Yet the average trade paperback is getting crappier and crappier, and the only way I can see to allow the book-as-object to truly flourish is by allowing the digital download to be what generates sales volume, what creates new readers by having impulse-buy scale pricing. Then, by having tens of thousands come to something for $1.99, you can develop that small percentage of that who really become serious fans, and want a deep connection, part of which will be reflected in an intimate, perhaps personalized object. Come to the cheap download, fall in love with the author, fleece the fan for a $100 limited edition once they're hooked. [Emoticon suggesting this was said with a wink.]

Exact Editions And The Directory of Publishing

I have mentioned Exact Editions and their tool set for magazine publisher's in the past, but I was on their site recently and noticed they have loaded up Continuums' Directory of Publishing 2009. Published by the publisher and The Publishers Association this directory is the definitive catalog of UK and Irish publishers. What makes this application of the content interesting is that using the EE toolset users can not only view pages as they are rendered in print but can also dial phone numbers, visit websites and even see the listees physical location on a Google map.

Here is the link.

2008 Media Deals

Deal makers Jordan Edmiston released their annual report this week and of no surprise to anyone, the number and value of media deals completed during 2008 came no where near matching the heady heights of 2007. Only database information services showed strength indicating deal makers support for subscription based (annuity) revenue streams. From the report:

• With the largest transaction for the year at less than $200 million (the purchase of Randall‐Reilly by Investcorp) the business‐to‐business magazine sector saw modest deal activity in 2008. Number of deals fell 46% to 22 total transactions for the full year, with only two deals in Q4, while total value declined 92% in 2008 versus 2007.
• Activity in the consumer magazine sector was slow as well, with 42 mostly smaller transactions, representing 25% fewer than in 2007. There were no substantial transactions for the year compared to last year’s sales of Emap, Gemstar and Primedia’s Enthusiast unit.
• The database information services sector saw a 77% increase in number of deals in 2008 over 2007 with 46 total deals announced. Deal value nearly tripled for this sector in 2008 to $8.8 billion, from $3.2 billion in 2007, excluding the $18.3 billion acquisition of Reuters by Thomson in 2007. The most notable deal in the fourth quarter was Getty Images’ acquisition of Jupiter Images for $96million.
• There was little activity in 2008 in the educational and professional publishing sector, which showed decreases of 26% in deal count and generally smaller transactions for the year versus 2007. The most notable transaction in this sector was the sale of CQ Press to SAGE in May.
• The exhibitions and conferences sector was the third most active M&A sector behind marketing services and online media, with 50 transactions in 2008. However, the sector showed declines of 28% and 31% in deal count and transaction value, respectively, compared to 2007. The two most significant deals of the year were VSS’s acquisition of Clarion events in February and Marketplace Event’s acquisition of dmg world media’s North American Consumer Home Shows in July.
• Marketing and interactive services was once again an M&A leader, generating about the same number of transactions in 2008 as in 2007 and totaling a healthy $12.3 billion for the year, although this was off 50% from 2007 levels. Among the sectors JEGI covers, we are especially bullish on marketing services and anticipate that the advertising slowdown will dramatically alter marketer spending patterns and surface many viable and compelling M&A opportunities, as well as unexpected buyers. This was evident in the fourth quarter with WPP’s announced buyout of TNS for $3.1 billion, Akamai’s $95 million acquisition of acerno, and Crain Communications’ acquisition of Staffing Industry Analysts.
• The newsletter sector saw deal activity rise 33% and deal value increase slightly by 6% in 2008 versus 2007, albeit off a small number of deals. One of the most notable transactions for the year was Haymarket Media’s acquisition of Compliance Week in July.
  
• With 258 transactions worth $9.1 billion, the online media and technology sector continued to remain very active in 2008, even though the sector saw a 18% decline in number of deals and a 26% decrease in deal value in 2008 versus 2007’s hectic deal pace. Major strategic buyers such as eBay,
  Gannett and Monster were active during the fourth quarter, acquiring companies to complement their current offerings. Additionally, Waterfront Media, an online health and self‐help publisher, merged with consumer health online information company Revolution Health Network to create
  the largest online heath group by audience.
  

Down Under Blogger

I just came across a relatively new blogging effort by Peter Donoughue the ex-CEO of Wiley Australia. Peter and I met on a number of occasions and I know from those meetings his commentary is going to be blunt, on target and often funny. Not to put too much pressure on him but here are two selections from recent posts.

The following is his view of Angus and Robertson's implementation of the espresso book machine in their stores.

POD machines in every bookstore - Jason Epstein's vision as articulated in his memoirs of a decade ago - was always a dud of an idea. Investments in printing machines are for printers and possibly publishers, not for barely profitable, main street, high rent paying bookstores. The concept of print on demand is fine, and an everyday reality in the industry now, but it's a specialised business.

Ebook readers are the future - the Kindle, the Iliad, the Sony, and others to come. They'll be a dime a dozen in five or so years, like iPods and mobile phones are now. If you want your book printed buy the paper version or print it yourself.

ARW would be better advised to spend their limited capital on refurbishing their tired-looking stores and - here's a novel idea - buying much more stock of already printed books! That would really be good for business. Doing the basics well will never go out of fashion.

Peter is actually a supporter of POD but obviously not in a bookstore.

Secondly, Australia engages in a never ending discussion about parallel importation and here he is on that subject.

Here is the essential truth that the book trade proponents for continued protection need to get their heads around:

The 30/90 day provisions do not establish and have never established Australia as a rights territory. Australia is a natural rights territory because of its population size, distance, literacy and affluence. The provisions provide additional protection for a rights holder, but they do not establish the possibility of buying rights in the first place. Therefore their abolition will not destroy Australia as a rights territory. Their abolition will simply remove that additional level of protection which only serves to protect over-pricing and under-servicing. Publishers who price and service competitively have absolutely nothing to fear.

God, how often must this be said! To me it's so self-evident.

There is really no need for this paranoia in the trade, this awful, miserable 'we'll all be ruined' defensiveness. No wonder economists throw their hands up!

He has also just finished the same book I did, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and we both recommend it highly.

Predictions 2009: Death and Resurrection:

Like the guy who is asked how he went bankrupt, ‘slowly and then quickly’, the escalating economic downturn in 2008 has really been brewing since the end of 2007, but we only fell off the cliff in fall 2008. I still believe (as I noted in January 2008) that 2007 will be viewed historically as a watershed year for media: the economic decline will further accelerate the macro trends the industry witnessed as 2007 evolved. These trends include:

• the rapid commitment to electronic delivery of content in both education and trade
• separation of ad-based and subscription-based models in both information and professional publishing
• forced concentration in the traditional publishing supply chain countered by (nascent) new channels including direct-to-consumer
• further blurring of the edges across media segments: More publishers will offer all content – not just their own - wider services and applications, and broader linking and partnerships designed to draw customers
  

The economic difficulties today are stark compared to the boisterous 2007 where the price for publishing assets kept going up and many big deals were made. During 2008, many high-profile divestitures were either abandoned (Reed Business) or ignominiously completed (TVGuide magazine sold for $1). 2009 is likely to see both the unraveling of some of the deals done in 2007 and some opportunistic buying but, more generally, the deferment of many companies' corporate development strategies.

Naturally, 2009 will see new companies emerge and there are numerous precedents for companies launched in economically challenging markets ultimately becoming very successful. Perhaps challenging the status quo is easier when the status quo is concentrating on just staying "status".

Predictions 2009

• An easy one: It gets much worse before it gets better. When times were good an oversupply of market options – particularly in retail – hid a myriad of structural problems. Right-sizing in media retailing and distribution will result in one major physical book retailer, one wholesaler and one online retailer. Media will be a sideshow compared with some other segments, particularly clothing and department stores.
  

• Another easy one: Several major city newspapers will change hands for less than the debt they carry. Local and hyper-local models will expand and further encroach on the market for traditional big city news. Coupled with linking, content licensing and arrangements with classified providers like Craigslist and Ebay, there will be a rapid expansion of the (hyper) local online news provider market.

• Out-of-work journalists will see increasing opportunities to become ‘content producers’ as more and more companies seek to enrich their sites with professional content that appeals to their target market. The typical website ‘experience’ becomes more expansive and deeper than a company catalog or press release site. Journalism as a function becomes more widely dispersed across many business segments.

• The NYTimes will either close the Boston Globe and ‘rebrand’ a NYTimes version for the Boston Market or sell it for a $1 saddled with as much debt as they can get away with. Sunday's paper will now come on Saturday: The UK market successfully went down this road and the US will (belatedly) follow.
  

• In media M&A, look for companies that have lots of cash to act opportunistically: NewsCorp, Holtzbrink, Bauer, Bonnier, Bertlesmann, Axel Springer, Lagardère, BBC (Commercial).
  

• Gathering of ‘equals’: Media owners unable to sell assets may seek to partner with another media company in the same boat and combine assets to form a new company. One combination that could be interesting is Nielsen Business Media with Reed Business Information (– pure speculation on my part). Others in this space looking for options might include Primedia, McGrawHill, Penton.

• The Obama administration will make wholesale revisions to education policy which will pain education publishers who have made particular investments in assessment companies. Long term, the assessment market will be robust; however, with explicit indications that student performance is no better for the ‘no child left behind’ programs, fundamental changes will be instituted including a more federalist direction. Ready your lobbying dollars.

• Evidence that the edges of media segments continue to overlap: Google will bid for the 2014 and 2016 Olympic broadcast rights.

• Social networking and ‘community’ building will become the CEO’s pet project as a ‘cheap’ alternative to decreased ad and marketing budgets with, predictably negative results. Senior-level misunderstandings of what constitutes effective social programs will result in efforts being treated casually. Piecemeal approaches will predominate and there will be a continued lack of cohesion of marketing with social networking. Programs backfire as customers witness the cynicism. Effective social networking is not just for Christmas.

• Professional and information publishing will effectively leverage Linkedin-like networks (possibly using their platform) to extend social networking to their closed networks. Lexis/Martindale is creating a private legal social network platform.

• Too much Linkedin with my Facebook. More people will do what I did in 2008 and build barriers around their online social networks and selectively cull ‘friends’ or ‘connections’ Sheer numbers have no logic, friendship is earned and legitimate business connections are money. Quality, not quantity, will reign. Don’t take it personally.

George Jones Out at Borders

Borders books announced a number of senior changes including the replacement of their CEO George Jones and CFO Ed Wilhelm. The replacement for Jones is Ron Marshall who has bookselling experience having been with Crown books. Marshall has a strong financial background having served as CFO of $4billion Pathmark during the restructuring of that company in the late 1990s.

Border's replaced Wilhelm and VP Merchandising Rob Guen with internal candidates (Mark Bierley and Anne Kubek respectively) and appointed Dan Smith as Chief Admin Officer.

The company also reported predictably soft sales for the holiday period and with the intense promotions they were running look for gross margin impairment when they report their full quarterly numbers. From the press release:

Sales Results-Holiday 2008
Borders Group also released its sales results for the nine-week holiday period ended Jan. 3, 2009. Total consolidated sales were $868.8 million, an 11.7% decline compared to the same period last year. Within the Borders superstore segment, total sales for the holiday period were $652.6 million, which is a 13.6% decrease compared to 2007. Comparable store sales at Borders superstores declined by 14.4% compared to the same period a year ago. On a same-store sales basis, the book category at Borders declined by 11.0% for the period. Borders.com sales for the nine-week holiday period were $20.3 million. Overall, holiday sales started slow and improved during the latter part of the season. Within the Waldenbooks Specialty Retail segment, total sales for the holiday period were $161.7 million, a 16.4% decrease compared to the same period one year ago. Comparable store sales for Waldenbooks declined by 8.0% compared to holiday 2007. Total International segment sales were $34.3 million for the period, a 1.4 % decrease compared to the same period a year ago. Comparable store sales at Paperchase stores in the U.K. decreased by 6.5% for the holiday period year over year.

Media Report Week 52

The Economist had a several interesting articles over the break.

Firstly, they note the 1,000 anniversary of The Tale of Genji which they note is the world's first modern novel. (Link)

Sheer scale is not all that is forbidding about the book. Japanese prose was still in its infancy in Murasaki’s day, so her syntax can be opaque. Sentences lack subjects, direct speech is often unattributed and, most alarmingly, the characters change names according to their rank or circumstances. Genji, for instance, is variously referred to as the captain, the consultant, the commander, the grand counsellor, the palace minister, the chancellor and the honorary retired emperor.

The subject matter is also challenging. There is polygamy, bisexuality (when one young woman rebuffs his advances, Genji consoles himself with her younger brother who turns out to be “no bad substitute for his ungracious sister”) and something very close to incest. Genji is attracted to Fujitsubo, one of his father’s consorts, because of her resemblance to his dead mother. Even though she is, in effect, his stepmother, he fathers a child with her.

The article goes on to examine how several translators (into English) have handled the story.

In their annual double issue there is a very interesting article on the development of Cookbooks from the first recognized cookbook "De ne coquinara". (Link)

The first Western cookbook appeared a little more than 1,600 years ago. “De re coquinara” (concerning cookery) is attributed to a Roman gourmet named Apicius who, legend has it, poisoned himself upon learning that he could no longer afford to eat fancy food. It is probably a mishmash of Roman and Greek recipes, some or all of them drawn from manuscripts that have since been lost. The editor was careless, allowing several duplicated recipes to sneak in. Yet Apicius’s book set the tone of cookery advice in Europe for more than a thousand years.

It has a decadent, aristocratic flavour. There are recipes for ostrich and flamingo, befitting the sweep of the Roman Empire. Apicius instructs cooks to add honey to almost everything, including lobster. He teaches them how to cook one dish so that it resembles another and how to disguise bad food.

The author goes on to look at how different countries approach their cookbooks and draws particular contrasts between the UK and the US.

Over at HuffPo, Andrew Foster Altschul asks publishers to forgo memoirs from Al Gonzales. (Link)

We all know the drill: disgraced Bush insider-cum-war-criminal licks his wounds for a year or two, then publishes a "tell-all" that either tells us what we already knew (cf. Scott McClellan's What Happened, which shocked the world by revealing that the White House had lied about its justifications for invading Iraq) or blames everyone else for what happened (cf. George Tenet's At the Center of the Storm, which excuses its author for his "slam dunk" comment by writing off its context as a mere "marketing meeting"). Prurient readers, believing mistakenly that they've breached the wall of executive secrecy, buy truckloads of the slimy documents, and the morally deficient scoundrel makes a ton of money and hits the lecture-and-talk-show circuit to make a ton more.

Ron Burkle's Yucaipa has bought a chunk of B&N for investment purposes. (Reuters)

Yucaipa Cos, a private equity firm controlled by billionaire Ron Burkle, said on Friday it it had acquired an 8.3 percent stake in bookseller Barnes & Noble Inc, saying it believed the shares were undervalued. The company's shares rose 4 percent after-hours to $15.99, after the announcement. Yucaipa funds said it had bought about 4.58 million shares since Nov. 24 for about $67.3 million, net of commissions, the company said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Some real analysis of the concept of The Long Tail as applied to the music industry indicates that the theory may not be as airtight as Chris Anderson would have us believe. (TimesOnline)

But a study of digital music sales has posed the first big challenge to this “long tail” theory: more than 10 million of the 13 million tracks available on the internet failed to find a single buyer last year.

The idea that niche markets were the key to the future for internet sellers was described as one of the most important economic models of the 21st century when it was spelt out by Chris Anderson in his book The Long Tail in 2006. He used data from an American online music retailer to predict that the internet economy would shift from a relatively small number of “hits” - mainstream products - at the head of the demand curve toward a “huge number of niches in the tail”.

However, a new study by Will Page, chief economist of the MCPS-PRS Alliance, the not-for-profit royalty collection society, suggests that the niche market is not an untapped goldmine and that online sales success still relies on big hits.

An Op-Ed in the NYTimes looking for some help from Treasury (Link)