Success in technology, like everything else, leads to more success. It’s not uncommon to see five-fold growth the year following a successful technology product launch. Think iPod, think Wii, think Blackberry. Whole micro-economies emerge around products that range from accelerated content creation, and all sorts of aftermarket products and services. Versions 2.0 and beyond create better and better devices. The better the devices, the more accessories, the more content there is, and soon a whole world of business opportunity is rolling downhill picking up speed. With this in mind, I can easily imagine the success of Kindle and Reader dramatically expanding next year and growing by a factor of five. If that happens, then the formula above leads to a completely new ebook economy. Five million devices would mean ebook sales of $1,200,000,000, which, by my estimation, is 1.3% of the current global book market of $90,000,000,000.
Monday, June 09, 2008
OUP Believes E-Book Sales are Huge
Call in Sick
LIBRA (Sept. 23-Oct. 22): Avoid emotional discussions about politics, religion, racial issues or even matters related to travel, foreign countries, publishing and education. These discussions will either go in circles or die on the vine. People are quick to take offense or assume that something is personal.
Shouldn't the and education be or education. Image people in publishing taking things personnally.
Sunday, June 08, 2008
Controversy Continues to Dog BBC Aquisition of Lonely Planet
The Sunday Times is reporting that Time Out founder Tony Eliot has written to the Office of Fair Trading demanding that the office launch an investigation into the purchase. Eliot believes that the acquisition breeches the BBCs obligations under their fair trading and competition guidelines. From the article:
In the letter, seen by The Sunday Times, Time Out founder Tony Elliott says he fears that the BBC will provide Lonely Planet with “an inexhaustible fund of factual, technical and editorial information and expertise quite beyond the resources of any privately funded organisation such as Time Out”.The article also notes that Penguin, which also publishes travel guides might also support the action:
Penguin, owner of the Rough Guide travel series, is also frustrated. It requested further details from the BBC Trust last October, under the Freedom ofThe larger issue regarding BBC Worldwide's ability to expand and extend their commercial activities has already been established; therefore, it is unlikely that this action will generate any support at the OFT. No doubt Time Out has attempted to galvanise some additional publishing support behind this effort, but has evidently not been able to do so otherwise, the PA would have been party to the complaint.
Information Act, on how the Lonely Planet deal was endorsed and how the company would operate in future.
In related news Judy Slater who had been CEO of Lonely Planet since 2000 has left the company to join an investment advisory group.
Informa and UBM in Take-Over Discussions
The Sunday Telegraph has learned that United Business Media (UBM), which has a market value of £1.5bn, has approached £1.6bn Informa about a merger that would establish a powerhouse in the increasingly competitive world of business-to-business media. Discussions between the two companies are at a very early stage and are not yet thought to have progressed as far as substantive negotiations about the structure or price of a potential combination. UBM and Informa may come under pressure to confirm the talks to the London Stock Exchange as early as tomorrow morning.Informa has been considered a buyout candidate over the past several months since their long time CEO David Gilbertson left to run PE led Emap Communications. Business media and conferencing companies have become hot properties because their subscription based business models mitigate much of the variability in advertising based businesses. Steady cash flow is highly desirable.
More Informa
In the ebb and flow of big media deals it is interesting to note that having spent the last several years on the sidelines unable to compete with the very large multiples that PE players were prepared to pay, some operators like UBM may be well positioned to make significant strategic acquisitions as those same PE companies become skittish in the current market. Last week we saw CQ Press acquired by SAGE and an effort by Reed Elsevier to sweeten the pot for potential acquirers of Reed Business. Analysts are now suggesting that RE may be unable to sell the RBI unit in one piece which would have been unheard of only 18mths ago.
Update Monday: Telegraph confirms discussions and notes share price jump
Other reports:
Forbes picks Candover but not until summer.
Earlier report from The Telegraph proposes other bidders including Axel Springer.
TimesOnline: Informa Garners Attention
Saturday, June 07, 2008
The Lost Theatres of Los Angeles
LA city government has announced a $30mm restoration project for this area. It would be great if they could recreate the glamor and excitement that pervaded this area in the 20s and 30s.
Each picture has some description sourced from a variety of sources including the theatre's websites and expert sites such as latimemachines.com and publicartinla.com.
Links for BookExpo
BookTour: Set up by Chris Anderson (Long Tail) to aggregate information about Author tours. (Around for a while but I've never mentioned it).
BookVideos.tv: Here are all the publishing clients and their videos using the BookVideos format. (Also around for a while).
MuseStorm: Widget maker working with publishing clients.
Mobifusion: A mobile platform that several publishers are using.
EarlyWord: A new blog/website launched by ex- Publisher's Weekly Editor & Chief Nora Rawlinson and ex- PW Publisher Fred Ciporen. The site aims to help Libraries with Collection Development and you can find out more about their philosophy on the site.
BigUniverse: Children's books that you can create yourself.
217Babel.com: Interesting collaborative writing project.
Friday, June 06, 2008
Green Data Centers and Space
No, they aren't looking to abolish the space program (after all where would we put all those tubes of nitrogen), this conference is all about making computing more green and sustainable.
Karen tells me she is,
particularly passionate about green computing because of my work on community and sustainable business, and as a publisher increasingly involved in social media and online distribution. For years I've felt that the environmental impact of computing needed much more attention, and the conference will bring together experts from some of the world's major technology companies, as well as from banks and other international institutions.The two day event is being held in London July 1-2 and if you travel there make sure you carbon offset. Karen is offering a 15% discount on the fee.
Here is some of the agenda and registration information is here:
http://www.blogger.com/www.greendatacentres.co.uk
Valley Conferences have brought together a stunning group of speakers from companies that are setting out to be leaders in sustainability. As someone who grew up in the Silicon Valley, I'm thrilled to chair the first day of the first Green Data Centres conference in the city where my publishing career began - this definitely feels like coming full circle." Karen Christensen, Conference Chairman and CEO of the Berkshire Publishing Group.
Day 1: Tuesday 1st July 2008
KEYNOTE PRESENTATION:
How Green Data Centres are Changing the Face of Business
Per Bahr, EMEA Business Development Manager Public Sector, AMD (Advanced Micro Devices). Data Centres are going green, helping reduce costs and increase efficiency. This presentation will look at how new technologies such as virtualisation are changing the the face of business, and what other measures companies can put in place to meet today's European Green IT standards.
KEYNOTE PRESENTATION:
Case Study: Sun Microsystems: Green Data Centres, The Million Dollar Prize... Richard Barrington, Head of Public Policy, Sun Microsystems UK.
Sun Microsystems has received a Million Dollar 'Cashback' from PG&E in addition to on-going utility bill savings because of the energy efficiency demonstrated in the design and construction of its new Data Centre in Menlo Park, California. This presentation will explain and analyse how Sun's internal IT ops organisation has developed a blueprint for the successful creation of a modular 'eco-DC'.
What can I say, its Friday...
Thursday, June 05, 2008
Reductions at Reed Business
Shortly after the announcement, RBI CEO Tad Smith, in an internal memo, tried to reassure RBI staffers that their jobs would be intact—including his own. "I am committed to leading our business as your CEO during the sale process and thereafter," Smith wrote in an internal memo. "In the meantime, business will continue as usual and everyone's jobs, benefits and pay will be unaffected."
No doubt that sets everyone's mind at rest. Folio used the work 'slashed' but it would be hard to characterise it this way especially since in the same article they quote an insider saying that the division has been able to replace most (if not all) open positions since the start of the year. These amounted to over 200 positions so 41 job eliminations seems minor (unless you lost your job obviously - and apologies etc.)
During a sale process the seller would want as few disruptions as possible and what this action suggests is that Reed is now resigned to a much longer sale process than originally thought. HQ is most likely demanding that the operating unit achieve their budgeted profit numbers at all costs since the unit may linger around for a full financial year.
Jane's Gone
Brian Murray has been named as her replacement and he has been key to executing their current long term strategy to transform the business from print to electronic distribution. From the press release:
"We are enormously grateful for her contributions over the past 10 years and understand her desire to seek new challenges at this point in her career," Murdoch said in a statement issued late Wednesday.
Murray, 41, has been president of HarperCollins since July 2007. He joined the publisher 10 years earlier and held several positions in the General Books Group until 2001, when he was named CEO of HarperCollins Australia/New Zealand. Murray returned to HarperCollins in the U.S. as group president in 2004 before his promotion to president. "In his 11-year tenure, Brian has demonstrated an impressive track record of growing publishing companies," Murdoch said. HarperCollins said he has led the publisher's digital efforts, including the development of its direct-to-consumer marketing.
Borders Sell Australian Store Group
Further details of the transaction may become clearer but to sell the branding without any long term licensing deal supporting a supplemental revenue source for Borders seems unfortunate.
There is also no comment from Borders on whether they will use the cash generated from this sale to repay the emergency financing provided by Pershing earlier this year.
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
CQ Press sold to Sage
Commenting on the acquisition, Blaise Simqu, SAGE’s President and CEO said the following:
“We’re very pleased CQ Press is joining the global SAGE family,” said Simqu. “CQ Press and SAGE enjoy a shared mission and values. Both are driven by a passion for scholarship and innovation that impacts education and public policy. John Jenkins and the rest of the CQ Press executive team have created an impressive publishing enterprise that will further enhance SAGE’s presence in the marketplace.”Despite the long sales process, interest in CQ Press was high with a number of publishing companies actively involved in the purchase process. Terms have not been announced.
AARP and Borders
AARP and Borders(R) announced today a long-term agreement that will provide unique benefits and discounts to AARP's more than 39 million members. The nation's largest membership organization for people age 50 and over and Borders
will combine forces to expand access to information on health, financial security, travel, and other issues important to personal growth and quality of life for those over 50. In addition, Borders will offer AARP members in-store and online discounts on select merchandise and will encourage AARP members to take advantage of the benefits of membership in the Borders Rewards(R) customer loyalty program, which now has over 26 million members.
On the surface, and as a marketing agreement, this may be mutually beneficial; however, I would argue this group doesn't need too much additional motivation to buy books. Getting this group into Borders to make their purchases is not a problem unique to this segment and that's the bigger issue at the crux of Borders problems. Separate from bigger issue, whether offering membership discounts in addition to the Borders Rewards program is required to encourage this group is debatable. On the other hand, this program may compound the view that the industry is catering to the wrong market. Envision the flyers that will now populate your local Borders: won't it begin to look like the waiting room at your doctors office?
Regrettably, the marketing department also thought it a great idea to organize an essay writing contest around the idea of "Your Next Chapter". While this is clearly suggestive of a 50+ person contemplating life choices, there is the distinct possibility that any number of current or past Border's staffers will consider entering the content on behalf of the corporation.
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Reed's Loan to Buy Offer
If the current approach is succesful it could limit or slow down a potential buyers ability to carve up the company and sell off the pieces they don't want. Any potential buyer is likely to want to sell several properties in an effort to focus the group on a number of core industry segments that have already shown potential for electronic publishing. Any buyer taking advantage of this financing model to be as flexible as if they had negotiated the terms themselves and whether this is possible remains to be seen.
Borders Axe Falls
As part of this expense reduction program, management reported that the company is today implementing a corporate payroll reduction that includes the elimination of 156 corporate positions spread across virtually all departments of its Ann Arbor headquarters. Employees at the company's headquarters were informed of the job eliminations this morning. In addition, Borders Group has eliminated 118 corporate posts that are based outside its headquarters, impacting primarily corporate employees in distribution centers, the field marketing organization, and the corporate sales division. These employees were informed yesterday. In total, the corporate payroll reduction eliminates approximately 20% of the company's corporate positions but less than 1% of its total workforce. The job elimination, with the exception of less than a handful of positions, is limited to corporate employees and does not involve store employees at the company's 547 Borders superstores and 475 Waldenbooks Specialty Retail stores worldwide.
Naturally, this news will only make publishers more nervous about extending credit to the company. A deal to sell the business can not come too soon.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Small Publishers and Foreword Magazine
Many years ago I attended my first BookExpo conference in Miami. On subsequent visits ever since, the rows upon rows of independent publisher booths have both awed and discouraged me. I have frequently said to friends and colleagues that as a reality check anyone considering establishing a publishing company should attend a BookExpo before committing dollar one. For many (myself included), there is a romantic notion attached to publishing which isn’t entirely undeserved; however, a trip through the aisles will prove that the unique idea you thought you had for the ideal publishing house or list is represented multiple times perhaps even in the same aisle.
At Bowker I saw a relentless procession of new publishers adding their information to Books In Print. Each year we saw approximately 10,000 new applications for ISBN numbers and these applications were fairly constant between the mid-1990’s and 2002. At the turn of the century, the numbers of new applications began to grow inexorably and is most likely well over 12,000 by now. The growth in self-publishing and the democratization of the publishing process is to ‘blame’.
In 2005, (if I recollect correctly from my Bowker years) 18 publishers produced almost 40,000 titles and 13,000 publishers produced 77,000 titles. (Including all titles the number published in 2005 was 180,000 give or take). On average, each of the 13,000 publishers published less than 10 titles per year. While these numbers reflect one year (2005) the data was proportionate to the entire Books In Print database of 5mm titles and 165,000 publishers. To emphasize the breadth of suppliers, I have heard Barnes & Noble say they order at least one title from 45,000 publishers in any given year.
All new publishers and existing independent publishers publish in every niche imaginable with lists ranging from one title to several thousand. Each publisher knows their market is intensely competitive and that titles will never be successful unless they are supported by an intensive focus on marketing and promotion. Naturally, some do this better than others.
There are significant challenges that small and medium publishers must overcome; getting their titles noticed is the greatest. At Sourcebooks, the company has adapted traditional advertising and marketing principles and applied them to the book industry. The results are instructive (and impressive). At the core of their business model is the understanding that each new title is a ‘product’ which requires a specific marketing and promotion plan. (Marketing’s four ‘p’s: product, promotion, price and place). At Sourcebooks, the difficult questions regarding how the title will be marketed and promoted are asked at the adoption stage rather than applied by rote as the book is being printed. Sourcebooks is a proven example that publishing can be done successfully by approaching the business less as an avocation and more as a market driven business. In order to be successful, more small and medium sized publishers will need to adopt similar programs to support their publishing efforts.
Other challenges abound. For example, we may begin to see the self-publishing model begin to impact the available pool of authors. Many authors may come to realize they can produce and promote their own title(s) and make more money rather than work with a traditional publisher. It has long been the case that the success of any title was dependent on the level of self-promotion provided by the author: As manufacturing and editing become commoditized, the author may wonder what a publisher’s value add will be if the titles’ success resides entirely on their promotional abilities. More authors may decide to do it themselves.
All businesses evolve and publishing is no exception; I see more and more independent publishers begin to adopt better financial controls, better marketing and promotion and make more astute title selections. While some significant challenges have occurred over the past 20 years – publisher consolidation, retailer consolidation, a reduction of independent bookstores – there have also been some impressive positive improvements. Opportunities represented by more effective use of technology, digital distribution and online advertising should all be experimented with, embraced and adapted to the publishing model. I also believe we will see more small and independent publishers seek out and work with some of the self-publishing companies (Author House, Lulu) where each supports the other’s business model. There remain opportunities in the independent publisher market: Look for me in the aisles in Los Angeles.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Borders First Quarter: Sales Down Cash UP
Improvement in Cash Flow:
Cash flow from operations improved by $132.9 million for the quarter compared to a year ago due in large part to improved inventory management,which generated $88.9 million in cash in the first quarter. Inventory decreased by $188.4 million at cost from the same period a year ago. Debt was reduced by $130.9 million compared to the prior year, including the prior year debt of discontinued operations. Commenting on the results CEO George Jones said:
"As was the case with nearly every other retailer, the challenging overall consumer environment hampered sales performance in the first quarter. I am pleased, however, that even within this difficult retail climate, we were able to manage inventory well, begin to aggressively reduce expenses, and end the quarter with better bottom line results than would have been expected in this type of environment. In fact, we worked with a third party advisor to develop a plan to reduce our annual operating expenses by$120 million, giving Borders a new, more effective base operating model going forward. We expect to realize about half of these savings within the current fiscal year and the full amount in 2009. We also
substantially improved cash flow and reduced debt in the first quarter -- both of which are critical factors in achieving our long term financial goals -- and as we announced in March, we completed financing to support our short term goals. While we have seen an improvement in sales in recent weeks, we will continue to aggressively execute expense reductions and manage our business conservatively, putting us in a much better position for long term success."
To Return or Not to Return
Mr. Riggio criticizes returns practices as "expensive." Perhaps he means it’s become expensive for the chains now that publishers have been squeezed so ruthlessly they have nothing left to give. Has it begun to dawn on executives like Mr. Riggio that, as powerful as the chains may appear to be, they are just another brick and mortar operation doomed to disintermediation by the Digital Revolution? So, now you want to end the consignment model of book distribution? Sorry, Mr. Riggio. The monster created by bookstore chains has the industry by the throat and will not let go. Returnability may be archaic, wasteful, stupid and fraudulent but publishers, bookstores and consumers are addicted and nobody is going to give it up. Not now, not ever. You’re welcome to try to reform the old business, Mr. Riggio, but that’s no longer where the game is being played.
Monday, May 26, 2008
Book Expo Session
Feel free to contact me if you are attending BookExpo and would like to meet. (michael.cairns @ infomediapartners.com)
Here is the panel description and some background on the panelists.
Digital Bundling: Considerations, Combinations & Costs
1:00AM - 12:00PM (Thursday, May 29, 2008)
Most publishers are committed to allowing consumers access to electronic versions of their books whether on their own account or via programs such as the Google Book program. Some publishers are going a step further and are allowing consumers to interact with and create their own products using the publisher’s content. As publisher’s build their content databases, digital bundling will become a significant part of the product mix and will change the concept of the customer – from bookstore to consumer - and the concept of the product – from book to service. Rapid improvements in technology will enable ‘mass customization’ of publishing products and will fundamentally change the relationship with customers. While many publishers are still tentative in their e-book experiments others are already experimenting with digital bundling. As these publishers experiment, what are their experiences, what are the issues and what costs exist as these publishers engage their customers in new and revolutionary ways? Hear from publishers who are experimenting or are contemplating launching making their content available to consumers for new and exciting products.
Panelists and Bios:
Sheila Clover English – CEO of Circle of Seven Productions, Executive Producer of Reader’s Entertainment TV and author of the ebook entitled The Book Trailer Revolution Book Marketing and Promotion Through Digital Video
Mrs. English is a member of the Association for Downloadable Media where her video performance rating system has been a topic of conversation, shared at the ad-tech convention and now under review with the Internet Content Syndication Council where Circle of Seven Productions has joined the likes of CBS, Associated Press, Google, Reuters, Studio One, NBC and other top media companies that will help shape the future of online video syndication.
Mrs. English has been interviewed by NPR, Newsweek Magazine and most recently The Wall Street Journal regarding book trailers and will be featured on the Robert Scoble Show this July talking about book trailers and online distribution.
A multi-award winning copy writer and executive producer and a member of the International Academy of the Visual Arts, Mrs. English has pioneered many milestones for digital video in the publishing industry. Her company, Circle of Seven Productions created the first book trailer to play in a movie theater, mall screens and the first to win the prestigious Telly Award.
Tom Hall is a Senior Digital Product Manager at Lonely Planet in Melbourne, Australia. For the past 2 years, he's been responsible for the development and launch of Pick & Mix, a program which allows consumers to buy, download and print individual chapters from Lonely Planet guidebooks. Prior to this, he managed the http://www.lonelyplanet.com/ home page and the ThornTree travel forum.
Tom has a long and checkered background in leading software projects and products. Prior to joining Lonely Planet in 2003, he was an IT Consultant to the Egyptian Ministry of Health in Cairo, and a Supervising Producer at Ninth House, a San Francisco eLearning startup. He has degrees in American Literature and and Writing from the University of California, San Diego.
Laurie Petrycki is the General Manager of the Head First and Missing Manual divisions at O’Reilly Media, Inc., where she oversees the development and creation of all products and services. In the Head First division, she and her team shape content to cultivate passionate users by making learning easy and fun for the brain. With the unique Missing Manual format, the goal is to respect readers' intelligence and help them get stuff done. As part of the publishing community for almost 20 years, Laurie has expertise in all sides of the business-- including editorial, production, and manufacturing--and has published on various technological and educational subjects.
David Wilk is an independent consultant and marketer (Booktrix.com) with broad experience in publishing, book packaging, sales, distribution, e-commerce and marketing. He has the privilege of working with authors, publishers and their books, in all formats, at the intersecting points of creativity, technology and cultural change. All applied to the traditional matters of art and commerce.
He has lately been working as a publishing industry consultant to Shared Book, a “reverse publishing” technology that enables content rich websites to give their users a broad array of publishing tools. Shared Book is inherently a mass customization and personalization engine. It is also somewhat chameleon-like, insofar as its many features can be deployed in different configurations, depending on the specific market needs of its site partners.
For example, children’s book publishers are using Shared Book to create extremely simple (and highly profitable) personalized versions of some of their classic titles, printed one at a time, with no changes to the essential art and text of the original books. Random House was first with Poky Little Puppy, the success of which was sufficient for them to be adding another 50 titles to the program this month.
Content rich sites including magazines that have extensive digitized and tagged content sites are enabling newly developed quick tagging tools which allow their site visitors to assemble a customized book from any article or photograph that sits on their site. Allrecipes.com and several other cooking sites give their users the ability to create customized and personalized cookbooks using either site supplied materials, or user generated content or both.
And there are even more complex uses possible with Shared Book’s sophisticated annotation engine – academic publishers and social networking sites are looking at an application that will allow professors to create custom texts for small or large study groups.
The applications of the highly evolved electronic publishing platform that Shared Book has created will enable traditional and nontraditional publishers to serve customers with the content they want in easily created customized and personalized forms.
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Brideshead Visited
The mind of Waugh the writer was stimulated at Madresfield. He not only drank in the medievalism of the house, but also savoured his encounters with the aristocracy, studying their habits and developing 'perfect pitch' in describing their jargon. He was fascinated to learn that his friend's father, the 7th Earl, considered it middle class not to decant champagne into jugs; how effectively nicknames and idiosyncratic jargon could exclude an outsider; how scruffily dressed the aristocrat could be at home. With his ear for dialogue and his eye for mannerisms, Waugh absorbed them well enough to be able to reproduce them faultlessly - even reverentially - in his novels.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Barnes & Noble Post Loss
Carla Cohen: We kept one step ahead of the competition. We opened a coffeehouse before Starbucks was on the scene. The model for us was Kramer Books. We’re a much better venue for authors so we’ve never competed with Barnes & Noble on that. We can always do a better job keeping in touch with our customers and keeping publicity out about the events, so we’ve never had to compete. I think our biggest competition is with Amazon.com. Amazon makes it easy when people are sitting at their desks — which most of us are during the day — and you read something and go online and order it. You have to be an old-fashioned book-lover to say ‘I’ll wait until the weekend.’ We do get a fair amount of Internet ordering on our Web site with people who are going to pick it up later.
I had to comment on the post which you can read if you follow the link above.
In other B&N news, the company saw a small increase in revenues to $1.16 billion in the first quarter, from $1.15 billion in the year-ago period. Earnings were significantly impacted by an $8mm pretax charge related to sales tax withholding. The company said it lost $2.22 million, or 4 cents per share, in the quarter ended May 3. That compares with a loss of $1.67 million, or 3 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding the charge, the bookseller would have earned 5 cents per share. Same store sales declined slightly in the period.
B&N Conference Transcript: SeekingAlpha