Predictions 2026: My Friend HAL Makes the Future

Predictions have been a hit or miss phenomenon at PND over the past few years (since 2018 it seems) and in the intervening years since my last essay things have changed. For instance, I could have had this written (in my voice) by copilot and it would be pretty good; but where’s the satisfaction in that? I could also offer the option for the post to be read aloud by Clint Eastwood. The good, the bad, and the ugly bits.

It’s not news to say AI and LLMs are both exciting and terrifying. There is a joke job posting going around for a candidate employed only to pull the plug out of the wall if the robot gets out of control and risks the end of humanity.  That said, humanity has some explaining to do at the moment: It’s a tossup which offers the worse potential outcome.

There is little doubt of the impact of AI and AI tools on virtually every aspect of our life now. In most cases the impact has been modest but I don’t need to go far out on a limb to say AI will become both fundamental to everyday activities but also often invisible to us very soon. The practical use of AI tools is eliminating grunt work like spreadsheet manipulation, document summaries, article comparisons and writing generally. Yesterday, I used Gemini to update a technology company profile essay I had written five years ago with the instruction to update the essay with new information and updates occurring since the original article was written. I would not immediately ‘publish’ this essay but in my estimation, it will take only 20% of the time to do the updated essay as it did to do the original and most of that 20% will be to confirm the AI work is accurate.  (I could use a different tool to confirm the Gemini version is accurate).  

Companies are aggressively encouraging staff to experiment and use AI tools. We are not done with the teething problems and work must continue on AI governance and acceptable practices which is why many corporations are establishing a ‘Chief AI officer’ to manage these aspects and establish internal and generally accepted standards. While this activity is almost universal across industries, I believe there is too much over exuberance regarding the short term impacts of AI and there will be a stock market reset sometime in 2026. Longer term, AI will have more impact than the personal computer – perhaps more than the wheel.

Here are my predictions for 2026:

• Robot tax. This idea will gain more steam in 2026 and legislation will be proposed to tax the use of robots and AI tools which ‘replace’ human labor with the objective of substituting for lost welfare tax (Social Security) revenues. The goal shall be to provide supplemental income, investment for (re)training and retirement income. Strongly endorsed by white collar unions it will naturally be opposed by business. Despite the tax, “robots” will remain significantly cost effective versus humanity.
• AI enabled editorial operating models. Generative AI tools will evolve from ‘on request’ or ‘user enabled’ tools to fully integrated editorial solutions designed to accept manuscripts, suggest editorial improvements, establish predictive success metrics, rewrite/redraft submissions, provide suggested marketing and sales attributes and create and/or propose ancillary product features such as video/audio and reader guides. Publishers will administer review cycles at defined points in the process as well as the formal approval process. There is the likelihood that editorial and production cycle times will be cut by 50-75% and through put increased exponentially. Sub rights and permissions will be handled in similar automated manner.  Governance and bias issues will remain challenging requiring human intervention for a significant amount of time.
• Speakers bureau. Per my suggestion to use the voice of Clint Eastwood we will see more and more license deals for voices and image (avatars). This will not only have implications for accessibility but will accord user determined language/localization without the need for studio time. This opportunity will also apply to character virtualization with authors and media creators invited into the creative process to formalize audio and avatar versions of their characters. Whether this could evolve into sponsor and spokesperson partnerships would be an interesting further enhancement.
• LLM modelling will increasingly see value in the creation of ‘siloed’ versions such that the best available ingestible content will be sourced for definitive RAG like LLM models. These subject specific will become the category leaders and form a barrier to entry with the source material(s) tied up in license deals. A important component of this scenario will be the inclusion of standard ontology and managed dictionaries which will govern terminology and interrelationships.
• Multi-modal publishing in academic science. During 2026 we will see a major academic journal go full ‘multi-modal’ whereby publishing consists of text, audio, short/long form video, info graphic, raw (test) data, class instruction, etc., and in any language all available on publication day.  Additionally, metadata will be constructed to enable AI enablement within LLM models with clear context and attribution enabled.
• Usage data: Remains a conundrum for the academic community with librarians confused by COUNTER reports showing precipitous declining usage but increased or stable scholar/researcher satisfaction.  Publishers will pressure the industry to create new usage models although there will be no consensus on how to do this. In a significant related scenario, the five major commercial academic publishers will proactively close their platforms to non-licensed LLM/AI tools access by mid-year.

We are in an age (or entering an age) where the strategic questions about business options, tactics and consequences are potentially existential. Our businesses will not operate the same in five years as they do today and everything about our businesses will be different because of the impacts of AI and how LLM models are commercialized. Consider the above as suggested guide posts in exploring how your business will change but most importantly don't get left on the dock as the tide turns.