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PND - The Interview

David Wilk at Writerscast (and numerous other things) has started an interview/pod cast program and I was the first candidate. Here is the introduction and the link:

In this new series of interviews, I have set out to talk to book industry professionals who have varying perspectives and thoughts about the future of publishing, books, and culture. This is a period of tremendous disruption and change. Publishing has been a crucial part of human culture for as long as people have been writing and reading. How will publishing evolve as our culture is affected by technology, climate change, population density, and the ebb and flow of civilization and its economics? Many people are thinking deeply - and some acting on - the nature of change and the challenges and opportunities that face us all. Publishing Talks tries, in a small way, to get at and illustrate some of what is going on today, and perhaps to help us understand, even if only generally, the outlines of what is happening, and how we might ourselves interact with and influence the future as it unfolds.

Publishing Talks gives people in the book business a chance to talk about ideas and concerns in a public forum that are often only talked about “around the water cooler,” at industry conventions and events, and in emails between friends. I hope this series of talks will give people inside and outside the book industry a chance to hear about some of the thoughts, ideas and concepts that are currently being discussed by engaged individuals within the industry.

My first interview in this series is with Michael Cairns, who has been active in publishing for many years and is currently working with Louis Borders’ start up content venture, MyWire.com.

To get the interview you need to go to the site.

MediaWeek (Vol 2, No 45): Money Issue

Several publishers reported earnings this week.

Simon & Schuster (CBS)

Publishing revenues for the third quarter of 2009 increased 2% to $230.4 million from $225.0 million for the same prior-year period reflecting the timing of the release of titles. Best-selling titles in the third quarter of 2009 included Arguing with Idiots by Glenn Beck and Her Fearful Symmetry by Audrey Niffenegger. In constant dollars, Publishing revenues increased 4% over the same prior-year period.

OIBDA for the third quarter of 2009 increased 10% to $28.4 million from $25.8 million for the same quarter last year and operating income increased 14% to $26.6 million from $23.4 million for the same prior-year period primarily due to revenue growth, partially offset by higher write-offs of advances for author royalties.

Hachette (Reuters) and The Bookseller:

Publishing revenues for the nine months to end September 2009 were €1,694m, up 8.3% on a reported basis and 8.8% on a like-for-like basis. Sales grew again in the third quarter of 2009, rising by 5.1% on a like-for-like basis. Other "main growth drivers" in the US included True Compass by Edward Kennedy, Say You're One of Them by Uwem Akpan, Lies My Mother Never Told Me by Kaylie Jones and Malcolm Gladwell's Outliers.

There was further sales growth in the United Kingdom but Spain reported a slight dip, mainly due to lower sales in education, Lagardère said. Lagardère said its publishing business faced "a particularly challenging fourth-quarter comparative", as the success of the Stephenie Meyer saga drove like-for-like sales growth to 6% in the fourth quarter of 2008.

ThomsonReuters (Press Release):

Glocer commented that 'the worse may be over'
Revenues from ongoing businesses were $3.2 billion, a decrease of 2% before currency and 4% after currency. IFRS revenues were down 4% after currency against the prior year period.

Underlying operating profit was up 3% to $711 million, with the related margin up 140 basis points, driven by the benefit of currency, integration-related savings and a continued commitment to strong cost management.

Adjusted earnings per share were $0.43 compared with $0.47 in the third quarter of 2008. The decline was due to higher integration-related spending, which is included in adjusted earnings but not underlying operating profit.

Borders announced that they would close the remaining mall stores by early 2010 (PR):

As part of Borders Group's ongoing strategy to right-size its Waldenbooks Specialty Retail segment and emerge with a smaller, more profitable mall chain in fiscal 2010, the retailer will close approximately 200 mall stores in January, leaving approximately 130 mall-based locations open. The list {of closures} is not final and is subject to change pending finalization of agreements over the coming weeks. Importantly, today's announcement regarding the mall business does not include Borders superstores or the company's seasonal mall kiosk business, which includes over 500 Day by Day Calendar Co. units, among other mall-based retail concepts.

Newscorp reported their results including improved results at Harpercollins (PR):

HarperCollins operating income of $20 million increased $17 million versus the same period a year ago due to higher sales at the Children's and General Books divisions, as well as reduced operating expenses from restructuring efforts in the prior year. First quarter results included strong sales of Where the Wild Things Are by Maurice Sendak, The Vampire Diaries by L.J. Smith and the paperback edition of The Story of Edgar Sawtelle by David Wroblewski. During the quarter, HarperCollins had 47 books on The New York Times bestseller list, including four books that reached the number 1 spot.

Torstar the parent of Harlequin reported (PR):

Book Publishing operating profit was $22.9 million in the third quarter of 2009, up $4.2 million from $18.7 million in the third quarter of 2008, including $2.0 million from the impact of foreign exchange. Year to date, Book Publishing operating profit was $63.1 million, up $9.9 million from $53.2 million in the first nine months of 2008, including $5.1 million from the favourable impact of foreign exchange. Underlying results were up in North America Direct-To-Consumer and down in North America Retail for both the third quarter and year to date. Overseas was down in the quarter but up year to date.

K-12 Online Learning to exceed 10.5mm students by 2014

A report recently conducted by is bullish on the growth of online learning suggesting that the number of K-12 students taking online courses will jump from 2mm currently to over 10.5mm by 2014. The results we discussed in a webinar and the full report is available for $4K (LINK):

The information was presented in a Webinar that coincided with a new report from Ambient Insight focusing on the growth of the electronic learning market (in terms of dollars spent on products and services) from 2009 to 2014. Titled "US Self-paced eLearning Market," the new report highlighted some of the dominant segments in online learning. Of the individual segments spotlighted in the research, healthcare was projected to see the most growth over the next five years. But K-12 and higher education growth followed in second and third position, respectively, for a combined academic projected growth percentage greater than that of healthcare. K-12 was projected to grow about 18 percent by 2014; higher education was projected to grow more than 8 percent. Healthcare was projected to grow a little less than 20 percent over the next five years.

In addition, I found these comments from M. Gozaydin from Turkey (in the comments section) to be quite interesting:

Wed, Nov 4, 2009 Muvaffak GOZAYDIN Turkey Dear Laura Believe me nobody in the world can afford brick and mortar school anymore. Even USA and even Switzerland. Brick and mortar requires building, land, heating, cooling, maintenance, administraters, water, electricity, cleaning, desks, chairs, papers, pencils , and TEACHERS ( usually they are not well trained and well paid )etc etc. ONLINE : you spend only once $ 1.000.000 per 100 session per year course. If it is accessed by 100.000 students per year, cost is only $ 10 per student. If you amortise it in 5 years cost is only $ 2 / student / year. And quality is perfect. Prepared and develeoped by the BEST teachers of the world in Washington DC. Cost of cheapest face to face education is $ 20.000 / year/ student in USA and almost anywhere in the world. If it is less than that, we do not call it school. It is a schack. How can you compete. Coming to socilising. You can have and even today you have, many clubs for sporting, musics, photography, sailing, fun clubs etc etc. They much cheaper than brick and mortar school. Plus you choose with whom you want to be. I try convince my American friends that GOOD ONLINE is 10 times better than face to face. Not commercial online. First thing USA should do 1.-Prepare a National curriculum in DC 2.- Have a contest for ONLINE COURSES Development 3. Choose 1 or 2 content to be used all schools in USA If we we in Turkey had done it so USA can do it. Best regards. By the way USA namely Caltech and Stanford educated me for 8 years. mgozaydin@hotmail.com

Wed, Nov 4, 2009 Muvaffak GOZAYDIN Turkey Dear Dave Nagel : Thanks for such a nice report. I think there is some small mistake in the Nacol anouncement. It says Preschool ONLINE will reach to 10 million or so. I am from Turkey. I work for online for the last 15 years even before many schools in the USA. Now we have in TURKEY, in Turkish and in English a National Curriculum ONLINE courses for 15.000.000 K12 students FREE FREE FREE. First in the world. I was the initiator of that project in 1995. All Turkey is covered by ADSL. Only shortage is now netbook for everybody. We have 1.500.000 somehow computers at schools + about 1.000.000 at homes of better of families. We are ready to export about ONLINE courses in English to USA. It is proven project. Only obstucle now is training of teacher for online. Students, believe me , even learn faster than their teachers. Our online program train the teachers in their subject as well. In the USA there are 55-56 million K12 students and only less than 1.000.000 students can take ONLINE Courses. Too bad. MAIN PROBLEM IN USA IS SCHOOL DISTRICTS MODEL. USA MUST HAVE A NATIONAL CURRICULUM MADE BY THE BEST EDUCATORS OF THE WORLD IN Washington DC Now we need ONLINE PRESCHOOL Content and KNOWHOW from you. Can you help me mgozaydin@hotmail.com of Turkey +90 - 532 - 291 96 76

Maggwire.com: The iTunes of Magazines?

I've been going to monthly meetups for the NY Tech group for the past year and they are a lot of fun (I've mentioned one of two presentations shown there in the past year - Snooth is one). At these meetings start-up companies are given five minutes to present their company and answer questions from the audience. The response from the audience is generally positive; however, the audience are not afraid to challenge the presenters over some aspect of their offering and worse not ask any questions if the company has failed to inspire. Each monthly meeting has about 700 attendees.

Last night one of the presenting companies was Maggwire.com which was started earlier this year by a group of ex-bankers. The company is attempting to aggregate magazine content into one experience so that a user can subscribe via one service to multiple content sources. The user then pays a low monthly payment to access the content. Currently, the product is in beta but the founders said the monthly fee could be as low as $1.99 for a base package with an extra fee per additional content source. If this reminds you of cable television then you're on the right track. At Mywire.com where I have been spending a lot of my time in the past two years we have a similar model however our monthly fee is $4.99 and we plan to offer a wider variety of content and only content that is unavailable free.

Maggwire is currently hosting aggregated content the is 'in the public domain' which is a troubling way of putting it but the company is in discussions with all the media companies about forming what amounts to distribution deals for their content. Unless the publishers restrict availability to their content - raise pay walls for example - Maggwire and other companies like this are unlikely to gain traction with subscribers. There is just too much free content and consumers will be unhappy if they find content they think they are paying for on the open web. The convenience of one location for content is a benefit that will only go so far.

Digital Book World Conference in January

There is an upcoming conference that seeks to break the mold of your traditional digital media conference and I hope you can join us in January at Digital Book World. Below is an update on our progress and a discount code you can use based on my role as an adviser to the conference.

We're gaining some tangible momentum as we close in on our early registration deadline. In the next 2+ months leading up to the January conference, we will continue to offer insightful content and resources that are relevant to both the specific topics covered in our conference sessions, as well as in areas not being specifically addressed in the program. Over the next two months, look to the conference web site for additional webinar topics and/or contributions of white papers, case studies, best practice tips, and op/eds that will help the publishing community navigate the tricky path of transforming our business models to profitably move into the digital era.

Our early registration deadline is November 20th and to thank you for your early support of Digital Book World 2010, you can register with the promo code DBWadvisor, and receive the lowest registration price available: $999/person. (Standard registration rate is $1295). This discount code is good until the November 20th deadline.

We also have some exciting news to share with you:

* Shiv Singh, Ad Age Media Maven and Global Social Media Lead for Razorfish has been confirmed as our keynote speaker.

* The Book Industry Study Group has signed on to be a Supporting Association, and we look forward to them debuting the results of their latest consumer research at the January event.

* New York University has just signed on as a supporting sponsor of Digital Book World, and we are working them to involve the next generation of publishing leaders in this event.

* Our first webinar, The Truth About eBooks: Devices, Formats and Pirates (Oh My!), drew nearly 900 registrants and 500 attendees. The slides from this insightful session may be found at the Digital Book World blog and on SlideShare.

Our second free webinar, Marketing in the Digital Age: Batteries Not Included, will take place on November 11 at 1:00p.m EST.

Christopher Walken Reads Lady Gaga

And if you haven't seen Chicken with Pears it is worth a look:

Link PND