On the Hudson

EMAP Dispose of Consumer Titles

After a half year process that at times appeared confused, EMAP announced this morning that they have agreed to sell their consumer magazine and radio business to Heinrich Bauer Verlag KG for £1.14 billion in cash. It appears to represent an excellent deal for shareholders who will receive a special dividend of the proceeds. From the announcement:

Emap has entered into agreements with Heinrich Bauer Verlag KG ("Bauer") to sell Emap Consumer Media and Emap Radio for a total consideration of £1.14 billion on a cash free, debt free basis. This represents a multiple of 2.2x pro forma 2007 revenue and 11.2x pro forma 2007 operating profit and offers a compelling opportunity for Emap shareholders to crystallise value from the two divisions.

Following the sale, the company states that they will refocus intently on their B2B business as a stand alone business. The affirmed that they have terminated any on-going discussions they had with potential acquirers. Clearly, they were not seeing the value here from the prospective purchasers and have decided to carry the unit for the foreseeable time. Some analysts have suggested the advertising outlook for 2008 could be dim and therefore forward financial projections were probably muted.

While Bauer is already big - 166 magazines in 14 countries on three continents and nearly E2.0Billion in revenues - this represents an important expansion for the company. They will immediately gain a substantial position in broader consumer content and english language publishing.

Alun Cathcart, Executive Chairman of Emap, said:

“We are pleased to have achieved a successful outcome in the review of Emap’s Group structure. The price achieved for Emap Consumer Media and Emap Radio fully reflects the value of the two divisions. Emap will now be a focused B2B company with strong market positions, strong cash flow and a proven management team and track record in delivering value and growth.”

Press release

Kindle: An e-platform for the masses?

In mid 1998 I had an audience with Jeff Bezos together with several French publishers. During the meeting the conversation moved to a discussion about what Amazon.com was going to be when it grew up. The supposed genius in the group (me) volunteered that Amazon would remain true to its book retail focus and not become some type of on-line mall. At the time, Amazon remained very close mouthed about their plans but in retrospect it's my suspicion they had every intention of becoming the emporium we now know them to be; moreover, they knew exactly how they were going to get there. Since the launch of Kindle, I have thought a lot about this meeting in 1998 because I don't believe anyone has a clue what Amazon sees as the future of this device.

Tim O'Reilly blogs about the relationship between ebook pricing and attention. There is obviously more to the post than that and the comments are worth a read as well. His article argues a salient point: Because reading is an 'active' past-time there is only a certain amount we can read given the time we have available. Raising or lowering prices will not (de)increase the "supply of time" dedicated to reading. In other words, I can only read one book a week and even if book two were free it wouldn't mean I could somehow read two.

The price of the Kindle is approximately $300. I would argue, rather than reducing ebook prices to $5.99 (versus print prices of $20) the pricing for the device should be similar to the razor blade/razor model. Even then I am not sure the model would work. Why? Because most readers don't read that many books. Most of the readers of publishing blogs like this one, O'Reilly Radar and those with a publishing audience represent a skewed view of the appeal of reading. We all love it and we all do a lot of it. Regrettably, the rest of America is not like us and on average the average book buyer will read less than 3 books per year. (Research studies note that even 'book buyers' are a small group).

So aside from early adopters and techno-fadists who flocked to acquire the first Kindles who will buy the next batch? If the average reader buys three books a year for a total of $90-100, why would they buy an ebook reader for $300 even if those three books were free? Your average consumer is not a dummy and can do the math.

So what of Amazon? They absolutely have the best information available about purchases so perhaps they believe they can sell enough Kindles to the small segment that reads over 10 (or 'x') books per year: I wonder about that. It would seem to me that on the basis of ebook sales alone for use on the Kindle, the device will be a failure. I believe the Kindle represents the first generation e-platform rather than a pure ebook reader. Amazon has a much broader view of how and what content will migrate to the Kindle.

There has been much discussion, argument and commentary about the Kindle and what it means but one thing is clear to me. Amazon has a plan that most likely exceeds our expectation about the positioning of this device. What that is I can only speculate but I suspect as an e-platform they will aggressively start establishing content relationships with all kinds of publishers, content providers, service providers and broadcasters to build out this device beyond the book world. Just like Amazon.com, books may represent the strong footings of the business but it won't be all they do on the Kindle. Any discussion about pricing ebook versions of paper books likely misses the point in terms of their long term strategy.

Reading Stutters

Some time contributor to this blog Andrew Grabois writes about the recent reports on reading over at beneaththecover.com. He discusses the results of the recent National Endowment for the Arts study and the Progress in International Reading study:

Now, on the heels of the NEA’s gloomy assessment, comes the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS). Based on tests given to 215,000 10-year-olds from 45 countries and provinces, and data gleaned from background surveys of pupils, their parents and teachers, the findings tell the same sad story. Since 2001, the U.S. dropped from 4th place to 18th place; the U.K., from 3rd to 19th. The average scores for U.S. and U.K. students did not drop as much as their places on the new list would suggest, but they didn’t make any progress compared with the spectacular improvement shown by 10-year-olds in Russia, some Canadian provinces, Hong Kong, and Singapore. The best that can be said is that the average scores for children from the world’s two largest book markets were above the international mean. So far, there’s been no official response to our relatively poor showing.

Here is the link.

Beware: Your truck may not fit!

With the advent of Amazon.com, the publishing community rapidly understood the value of deeper descriptive information necessary to merchandise products in the virtual world. Initially, we were concerned with provision of cover images and marketing blurbs, then author bios and tables of content and on everafter. Our experience is not unique and in all industries and product segments deeper more descriptive information is now being sought to enable web browsers, service providers and consumers to make better more informed decisions.

There are many examples but I was immediately struck in this article about satellite navigation and driving instructions in the UK. The article (NYTimes) focuses on the negative impact of computerized driving instructions and how they can sometimes be too literal. It is no longer a matter of simply providing a geographic description and route map between two points. As more and more people and vehicles rely on these systems, the data elements required to build a viable route that doesn't create some of the issues mentioned in this article will need to include items such as road width, (tight) turnings, bridge weight limits, speed limits, hill length, season variations - like snow or ice conditions - and the list could go on and on. From the article:

“Foreign drivers very much depend on sat nav systems when they’re coming to a different country, and they are following them rather more blindly than they ought to,” Mr. Dossetter said. Last month, a Slovakian truck driver arrived in Dover, bound for Wales with 22 tons of paper. But, directed off the highway and onto increasingly narrow roads by his navigation system, he ended up wedged on a tiny lane between two houses in Mereworth, a village in Kent, whereupon he had a panic attack, jumped out of his truck, and burst into tears. “He got back in his lorry and tried to maneuver his way out, but he was starting to scrape against the front walls,” Mark Siggers, a resident, told a local newspaper. He also knocked down the village’s power cables, cutting off the electricity. It took the authorities several days to remove his mangled truck.

Imagine the poor guy having to report back to head office that he got their truck wedged between two buildings. Just exactly how these navigation systems will incorporate this deeper (metagraphic?) data into their systems so mistakes like these don't happen could represent a monumental task. It is a problem perhaps perfectly placed for the application of social networking. The truck driver above should be able to wipe away the tears and document his experience in some manner that will improve the navigation for the next European truck driver.

The lesson of Amazon.com is that the development of better descriptive information is an on going struggle; Amazon hasn't stopped improving merchandising and has always recognized the more data elements the better. I suspect that many other industries are and will embark on data collection efforts (and seek data from their vendors and customers) that improves the service or products they provide.

Cengage Swoop on HM College Division

Cengage announced they have reached a definitive agreement to acquire the College publishing assets of Houghton Mifflin for $750mm in cash. The companies also announced that on closing they would work together to expand the distribution of Cengage’s college textbooks and related materials into the U.S. high school market, with particular emphasis on Advanced Placement and Honors programs. From the press release:

“We’re very pleased to acquire the well-respected assets of HM College, which are highly complementary to our existing business,” said Ronald Dunn, President and CEO of Cengage Learning. “We look forward to combining the people, products and publishing programs of HM College and Cengage Learning to expand and enhance our range of services for students, instructors and institutions in the higher education market.”

The divestiture will enable Houghton Mifflin to focus on its K-12 education products but it will undoubtedly strengthen Cengage's position in College. How valuable the marketing agreement will be is unknown although selling College text into the high school market has been growing over the past five years.

Importantly, Cengage has demonstrated that despite the huge price paid for the business they are able to go back to the well (bankers) to make this acquisition. Their investors recognise that the base business is doing well and this acquisition represents an opportunity to strengthen their market position. Perhaps this is at the expense of Houghton Mifflin whos banks announced last week that they could not sell their loan syndication.

On a related note, Cengage presented a brief overview of their first quarter performance and they reported consolidated revenues of $650.1mm up 5.1% versus the same period last year. Operating Income of $247.1mm was up 10% (before allocations and amortization). Higher ed and International delivered strong performance with revenues up 7% and 13% respectively. The library division (Gale) under performed with revenues and operating income off 5.9%. During the conference call CEO Ron Dunn listed several areas where the company is focusing their attention. These include establishing their new leadership team, driving revenue growth, reorganization of international and merging higher ed and professional publishing.

ACAP is Implemented

At a conference in New York yesterday, World Association of Newspapers President Gavin O'Reilly updated the content community on the status of the ACAP initiative. ACAP is a technology that updates the manner in which web search robots search and index material on the web. The ACAP protocol aims to create a more balanced approach to gathering web content and enabling content owners to 'publish' specific rights information applicable to their content which can then be read by the search tool. Rather than limit the amount of free content available to web users, content owners participating in this initiative believe the ultimate outcome will be to make more content available by bringing content from behind subscription walls.

All content owners are being encouraged to implement version 1 of the protocol and Times Online announced that they have implemented ACAP on their site. From the Associated Press:

The proposal, unveiled by a consortium of publishers at the global headquarters of The Associated Press, seeks to have those extra commands — and more — apply across the board. Sites, for instance, could try to limit how long search engines may retain copies in their indexes, or tell the crawler not to follow any of the links that appear within a Web page. The current system doesn't give sites "enough flexibility to express our terms and conditions on access and use of content," said Angela Mills Wade, executive director of the European Publishers Council, one of the organizations behind the proposal. "That is not surprising. It was invented in the 1990s and things move on."

Personally, I was initially skeptical about this initiative but they have delivered on their time table, retained their broad support and even have some in the search community actively supporting the initiative.

ACAP organizers tested their system with French search engine Exalead Inc. but had only informal discussions with others. Google, Yahoo and Microsoft Corp. sent representatives to the announcement, and O'Reilly said their "lack of public endorsement has not meant any lack of involvement by them." Danny Sullivan, editor in chief of the industry Web site Search Engine Land, said robots.txt "certainly is long overdue for some improvements."

Associated Press

Riverdeep Syndication Gone Awry

As mentioned a few weeks ago, Riverdeeps banks (Credit Suisse, Lehman Brothers and Citigroup) conducted a roadshow to sell the debt associated with the Riverdeep acquisition of Harcourt. According to the Irish Times, the banks have suspended this process and will hang on tooth and nail to the debt themselves until the markets improve.

This will have limited impact on the operations of Riverdeep/Houghton Mifflin and while this is not positive news it could only reflect a desire for the banks to maintain a decent margin on the syndication rather than judgements about the risk of the underlying loans. At least that's what I would be saying if I were Riverdeep.

Books A Million Reports

BAM reported comp store revenues up 2% for the quarter and up 6.3% to $117.7mm over all. The Company reported a net loss of $0.5mm, or $0.03 per diluted share, for the third quarter of fiscal 2008, compared with a net loss of $0.2mm. YTD revenues are up 6% to $366.8mm and net income of $4.7mm is up $0.9mm versus the same period last year.

From the press release commenting on the results, Sandra B. Cochran, President and Chief Executive Officer, said,

“We were very pleased with our sales results for the quarter; however, operating costs for the period, driven primarily by an increase in heath care expense, exceeded our plan. Looking forward, our fourth quarter best seller lineup is solid, and we are focused on executing our merchandising and marketing plans for the holiday season.”

The closely held company also announced that its Board of directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 per share. The quarterly dividend is payable on December 26, 2007, to stockholders of record at the close of business on December 11, 2007.

Borders Australia

The Australian Competition Commission anticipates making a final decision on the merger between Angus & Robertson and Borders Australia by December 19. In the meantime they have requested additional comments and specific requests related to several items.

The commission suggests that the reduction in competition could result in decreased discounting and notes that Borders promotions are 'particularly innovative' with 'weekly discounts' and 3/2 offers. (Gosh!) The ACC invites comments that counter or support its' contention that a reduction in competitive tension would reduce discounting to a wide range of titles.(The commisson is also asking to what degree loyalty programs are important in supporting discounts.)

The merged entity will concentrate more than 25% of all retail revenue for the industry and they are looking for comment regarding how A&R/Borders may weild this power. Principally will the retailer be able to negotiate more agressively for better discounts and will this influence publication plans by publishers? With respect to this item the commission is interested in consumer research regarding purchasing behavior. (Good luck.)

Lastly, the commission requests information about local market competition even explicitly asking what the impact has been of the entry of Borders into the Australian market. They remain interested in the impact of smaller local markets of the entry of 'large format' retail stores.

There doesn't appear to be too much consideration on the impact of international web retailing such as amazon.com or b&n.com. Both of these retailers are well known to book buyers in this market. (While they note the merged entity will represent more than 25% of the market it is unlikely that they have any idea how much retail business is off-shore, and it is likely to be considerable especially given territory rights issues that can limit selection and the weak US dollar).

It looks like this merger will be approved: Whether there will be any constraints placed on the merged entity remains to be seen.

Broadcasters Unite!

What if CBS, NBC and ABC launched a joint web-based broadcast portal? Highly unlikely you say? Well, in the UK pundits might also have dismissed out of hand the notion that the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 could ever agree on anything let alone jointly developing a web portal for distribution of their content. Today these three companies announced they would launch such a web site in the early part of 2008. All three have existing web content portals and both BBC and ITV intend to keep theirs going in the short term. Earlier in 2007, the BBC launched their i-player client which has not been as successful as the hype that presaged its launch would have suggested. Residents outside the UK are unable to use the i-player and it is assumed the tri-company web site will be off-limits to non-UK users.

The web activities of BBC and ITV place them significantly ahead of the network broadcasters in the US. One aspect of their business model which has made their experimentation with web distribution possible is that the UK companies generally own the content they broadcast. This is not the case in the US although in recent years the networks have built production capability.

The collaboration in the UK will be watched closely and while it may be spun as a consumer bonus - having one location to access the content from the nations' primary broadcasters - the reality could be more prosaic. The costs of building and maintaining a portal for this content could be extreme and each would ultimately be in a race to augment their content with content from other providers. Why not join forces, pool resources and reduce the market for third (fourth) party content? It makes a lot of sense especially in a market that isn't that large to begin with.

In the early 1990's Sky beat the traditional broadcasters into new distribution territory and the broadcasters had no solution. As a result, they lost out on a vast expansion of the consumer broadcast market (satellite). In developing this new collective content portal they could be setting themselves up to be meaningful players in a potentially much larger market place for distributed content.

When Newscorp launched Sky these players were warming the bench but this announcement may enable them to have a role in the future of television.

Not OK Computer

My trusty laptop committed suicide over the weekend. There will be a brief interruption to our service as I decide what my options are. Sadly my life seems to revolve around the machine and with its loss I seem at times to be entirely untethered to temporal life. The machine holds my calendar of course but the daily rhythm of email - and there is one - has been disrupted as well and as a result I feel I like a prisoner on being suddenly set free finds the lack of regimentation impossible to deal with. This is a very sad situation and the sooner I get a replacement the better. Help.