Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Small Publishers and Foreword Magazine
Many years ago I attended my first BookExpo conference in Miami. On subsequent visits ever since, the rows upon rows of independent publisher booths have both awed and discouraged me. I have frequently said to friends and colleagues that as a reality check anyone considering establishing a publishing company should attend a BookExpo before committing dollar one. For many (myself included), there is a romantic notion attached to publishing which isn’t entirely undeserved; however, a trip through the aisles will prove that the unique idea you thought you had for the ideal publishing house or list is represented multiple times perhaps even in the same aisle.
At Bowker I saw a relentless procession of new publishers adding their information to Books In Print. Each year we saw approximately 10,000 new applications for ISBN numbers and these applications were fairly constant between the mid-1990’s and 2002. At the turn of the century, the numbers of new applications began to grow inexorably and is most likely well over 12,000 by now. The growth in self-publishing and the democratization of the publishing process is to ‘blame’.
In 2005, (if I recollect correctly from my Bowker years) 18 publishers produced almost 40,000 titles and 13,000 publishers produced 77,000 titles. (Including all titles the number published in 2005 was 180,000 give or take). On average, each of the 13,000 publishers published less than 10 titles per year. While these numbers reflect one year (2005) the data was proportionate to the entire Books In Print database of 5mm titles and 165,000 publishers. To emphasize the breadth of suppliers, I have heard Barnes & Noble say they order at least one title from 45,000 publishers in any given year.
All new publishers and existing independent publishers publish in every niche imaginable with lists ranging from one title to several thousand. Each publisher knows their market is intensely competitive and that titles will never be successful unless they are supported by an intensive focus on marketing and promotion. Naturally, some do this better than others.
There are significant challenges that small and medium publishers must overcome; getting their titles noticed is the greatest. At Sourcebooks, the company has adapted traditional advertising and marketing principles and applied them to the book industry. The results are instructive (and impressive). At the core of their business model is the understanding that each new title is a ‘product’ which requires a specific marketing and promotion plan. (Marketing’s four ‘p’s: product, promotion, price and place). At Sourcebooks, the difficult questions regarding how the title will be marketed and promoted are asked at the adoption stage rather than applied by rote as the book is being printed. Sourcebooks is a proven example that publishing can be done successfully by approaching the business less as an avocation and more as a market driven business. In order to be successful, more small and medium sized publishers will need to adopt similar programs to support their publishing efforts.
Other challenges abound. For example, we may begin to see the self-publishing model begin to impact the available pool of authors. Many authors may come to realize they can produce and promote their own title(s) and make more money rather than work with a traditional publisher. It has long been the case that the success of any title was dependent on the level of self-promotion provided by the author: As manufacturing and editing become commoditized, the author may wonder what a publisher’s value add will be if the titles’ success resides entirely on their promotional abilities. More authors may decide to do it themselves.
All businesses evolve and publishing is no exception; I see more and more independent publishers begin to adopt better financial controls, better marketing and promotion and make more astute title selections. While some significant challenges have occurred over the past 20 years – publisher consolidation, retailer consolidation, a reduction of independent bookstores – there have also been some impressive positive improvements. Opportunities represented by more effective use of technology, digital distribution and online advertising should all be experimented with, embraced and adapted to the publishing model. I also believe we will see more small and independent publishers seek out and work with some of the self-publishing companies (Author House, Lulu) where each supports the other’s business model. There remain opportunities in the independent publisher market: Look for me in the aisles in Los Angeles.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Borders First Quarter: Sales Down Cash UP
Improvement in Cash Flow:
Cash flow from operations improved by $132.9 million for the quarter compared to a year ago due in large part to improved inventory management,which generated $88.9 million in cash in the first quarter. Inventory decreased by $188.4 million at cost from the same period a year ago. Debt was reduced by $130.9 million compared to the prior year, including the prior year debt of discontinued operations. Commenting on the results CEO George Jones said:
"As was the case with nearly every other retailer, the challenging overall consumer environment hampered sales performance in the first quarter. I am pleased, however, that even within this difficult retail climate, we were able to manage inventory well, begin to aggressively reduce expenses, and end the quarter with better bottom line results than would have been expected in this type of environment. In fact, we worked with a third party advisor to develop a plan to reduce our annual operating expenses by$120 million, giving Borders a new, more effective base operating model going forward. We expect to realize about half of these savings within the current fiscal year and the full amount in 2009. We also
substantially improved cash flow and reduced debt in the first quarter -- both of which are critical factors in achieving our long term financial goals -- and as we announced in March, we completed financing to support our short term goals. While we have seen an improvement in sales in recent weeks, we will continue to aggressively execute expense reductions and manage our business conservatively, putting us in a much better position for long term success."
To Return or Not to Return
Mr. Riggio criticizes returns practices as "expensive." Perhaps he means it’s become expensive for the chains now that publishers have been squeezed so ruthlessly they have nothing left to give. Has it begun to dawn on executives like Mr. Riggio that, as powerful as the chains may appear to be, they are just another brick and mortar operation doomed to disintermediation by the Digital Revolution? So, now you want to end the consignment model of book distribution? Sorry, Mr. Riggio. The monster created by bookstore chains has the industry by the throat and will not let go. Returnability may be archaic, wasteful, stupid and fraudulent but publishers, bookstores and consumers are addicted and nobody is going to give it up. Not now, not ever. You’re welcome to try to reform the old business, Mr. Riggio, but that’s no longer where the game is being played.
Monday, May 26, 2008
Book Expo Session
Feel free to contact me if you are attending BookExpo and would like to meet. (michael.cairns @ infomediapartners.com)
Here is the panel description and some background on the panelists.
Digital Bundling: Considerations, Combinations & Costs
1:00AM - 12:00PM (Thursday, May 29, 2008)
Most publishers are committed to allowing consumers access to electronic versions of their books whether on their own account or via programs such as the Google Book program. Some publishers are going a step further and are allowing consumers to interact with and create their own products using the publisher’s content. As publisher’s build their content databases, digital bundling will become a significant part of the product mix and will change the concept of the customer – from bookstore to consumer - and the concept of the product – from book to service. Rapid improvements in technology will enable ‘mass customization’ of publishing products and will fundamentally change the relationship with customers. While many publishers are still tentative in their e-book experiments others are already experimenting with digital bundling. As these publishers experiment, what are their experiences, what are the issues and what costs exist as these publishers engage their customers in new and revolutionary ways? Hear from publishers who are experimenting or are contemplating launching making their content available to consumers for new and exciting products.
Panelists and Bios:
Sheila Clover English – CEO of Circle of Seven Productions, Executive Producer of Reader’s Entertainment TV and author of the ebook entitled The Book Trailer Revolution Book Marketing and Promotion Through Digital Video
Mrs. English is a member of the Association for Downloadable Media where her video performance rating system has been a topic of conversation, shared at the ad-tech convention and now under review with the Internet Content Syndication Council where Circle of Seven Productions has joined the likes of CBS, Associated Press, Google, Reuters, Studio One, NBC and other top media companies that will help shape the future of online video syndication.
Mrs. English has been interviewed by NPR, Newsweek Magazine and most recently The Wall Street Journal regarding book trailers and will be featured on the Robert Scoble Show this July talking about book trailers and online distribution.
A multi-award winning copy writer and executive producer and a member of the International Academy of the Visual Arts, Mrs. English has pioneered many milestones for digital video in the publishing industry. Her company, Circle of Seven Productions created the first book trailer to play in a movie theater, mall screens and the first to win the prestigious Telly Award.
Tom Hall is a Senior Digital Product Manager at Lonely Planet in Melbourne, Australia. For the past 2 years, he's been responsible for the development and launch of Pick & Mix, a program which allows consumers to buy, download and print individual chapters from Lonely Planet guidebooks. Prior to this, he managed the http://www.lonelyplanet.com/ home page and the ThornTree travel forum.
Tom has a long and checkered background in leading software projects and products. Prior to joining Lonely Planet in 2003, he was an IT Consultant to the Egyptian Ministry of Health in Cairo, and a Supervising Producer at Ninth House, a San Francisco eLearning startup. He has degrees in American Literature and and Writing from the University of California, San Diego.
Laurie Petrycki is the General Manager of the Head First and Missing Manual divisions at O’Reilly Media, Inc., where she oversees the development and creation of all products and services. In the Head First division, she and her team shape content to cultivate passionate users by making learning easy and fun for the brain. With the unique Missing Manual format, the goal is to respect readers' intelligence and help them get stuff done. As part of the publishing community for almost 20 years, Laurie has expertise in all sides of the business-- including editorial, production, and manufacturing--and has published on various technological and educational subjects.
David Wilk is an independent consultant and marketer (Booktrix.com) with broad experience in publishing, book packaging, sales, distribution, e-commerce and marketing. He has the privilege of working with authors, publishers and their books, in all formats, at the intersecting points of creativity, technology and cultural change. All applied to the traditional matters of art and commerce.
He has lately been working as a publishing industry consultant to Shared Book, a “reverse publishing” technology that enables content rich websites to give their users a broad array of publishing tools. Shared Book is inherently a mass customization and personalization engine. It is also somewhat chameleon-like, insofar as its many features can be deployed in different configurations, depending on the specific market needs of its site partners.
For example, children’s book publishers are using Shared Book to create extremely simple (and highly profitable) personalized versions of some of their classic titles, printed one at a time, with no changes to the essential art and text of the original books. Random House was first with Poky Little Puppy, the success of which was sufficient for them to be adding another 50 titles to the program this month.
Content rich sites including magazines that have extensive digitized and tagged content sites are enabling newly developed quick tagging tools which allow their site visitors to assemble a customized book from any article or photograph that sits on their site. Allrecipes.com and several other cooking sites give their users the ability to create customized and personalized cookbooks using either site supplied materials, or user generated content or both.
And there are even more complex uses possible with Shared Book’s sophisticated annotation engine – academic publishers and social networking sites are looking at an application that will allow professors to create custom texts for small or large study groups.
The applications of the highly evolved electronic publishing platform that Shared Book has created will enable traditional and nontraditional publishers to serve customers with the content they want in easily created customized and personalized forms.
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Brideshead Visited
The mind of Waugh the writer was stimulated at Madresfield. He not only drank in the medievalism of the house, but also savoured his encounters with the aristocracy, studying their habits and developing 'perfect pitch' in describing their jargon. He was fascinated to learn that his friend's father, the 7th Earl, considered it middle class not to decant champagne into jugs; how effectively nicknames and idiosyncratic jargon could exclude an outsider; how scruffily dressed the aristocrat could be at home. With his ear for dialogue and his eye for mannerisms, Waugh absorbed them well enough to be able to reproduce them faultlessly - even reverentially - in his novels.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Barnes & Noble Post Loss
Carla Cohen: We kept one step ahead of the competition. We opened a coffeehouse before Starbucks was on the scene. The model for us was Kramer Books. We’re a much better venue for authors so we’ve never competed with Barnes & Noble on that. We can always do a better job keeping in touch with our customers and keeping publicity out about the events, so we’ve never had to compete. I think our biggest competition is with Amazon.com. Amazon makes it easy when people are sitting at their desks — which most of us are during the day — and you read something and go online and order it. You have to be an old-fashioned book-lover to say ‘I’ll wait until the weekend.’ We do get a fair amount of Internet ordering on our Web site with people who are going to pick it up later.
I had to comment on the post which you can read if you follow the link above.
In other B&N news, the company saw a small increase in revenues to $1.16 billion in the first quarter, from $1.15 billion in the year-ago period. Earnings were significantly impacted by an $8mm pretax charge related to sales tax withholding. The company said it lost $2.22 million, or 4 cents per share, in the quarter ended May 3. That compares with a loss of $1.67 million, or 3 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding the charge, the bookseller would have earned 5 cents per share. Same store sales declined slightly in the period.
B&N Conference Transcript: SeekingAlpha
Books A Million 1Q Profit Off 57%
Net sales for the 13-week period decreased 0.7% to $115.5 million from sales of $116.3 million in the year earlier period. Comparable store sales for the quarter decreased 3.4% when compared to the 13-week period for the prior year. At quarter end we were operating 207 total stores. During the quarter we opened one new superstore and closed two Booklands. Gross margin as a percent of sales was 29.3% compared to 29.0% last year. The increase as a percent of sales was partially due to lower discounts and markdowns versus last year. Operating expenses as a percent of sales increased to 24.6% for the quarter from 23.2% in fiscal 2008. The increase as a percent of tax is primarily due to a one-time charge of $406,000 ($241,000 net of taxes) for severance related to staff reduction at the company’s headquarters. Depreciation expense increased $114,000 to $3.5 million from $3.3 million.
Shares in BAM trade around $8 close to its 12mth low and the company has a market cap of $126mm. Their 52 week high is $20.70. There are 16mm shares outstanding and in recent months insiders have purchased 2.5mm shares (16%). Primary among this group are CEO Cochran and Chairman Anderson.
Indigo (Canada) Reports
"It was a demanding year for many retailers as a result of the significant increase in the Canadian dollar. Booksellers in particular saw a meaningful decrease in book prices. Despite this downward pressure on our top line we are pleased with ourAt the end of 2007, Indigo operated 249 stores including 88 superstores under the banners Indigo, Chapters and the World's Biggest Bookstore, and 161 small format stores under the banners Coles, Indigo, Indigospirit, SmithBooks and The Book Company. Over the past year the company's share price has fallen from a high of $16 to its current $13. It had been below $12, but the company announced a buy-back program that may have aided its recent up tick.
results."
From the press release:
Total revenue for the quarter increased 2.1% to $206.2 million. On a comparable store basis,Indigo and Chapters superstores posted 3.4% growth, while Coles small format stores were up 2.4%. Sales from Indigo's online channel, Chapters.indigo.ca,grew 1.0% to $24.7 million. The Company's net earnings for the fourth quarter were $3.1 million, up$7.3 million from the same quarter last year. Pre-tax earnings rose$6.1 million to $1.9 million. For the full year, total revenue increased 5.5% to $922.9 million while net earnings were up 76.0% to $52.8 million. Included in this year's results was a $8.8 million non-cash tax recovery. Pre-tax earnings rose $14.1 million to $44.1 million.
Borders Update
In response to recent inquiries, Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP) today reported that the company is in the midst of the strategic alternatives process and has not engaged in substantive discussions regarding any specific transaction to date. The company does not intend to make any further comment while the process is ongoing.There has also been an inordinate amount of interest in the reports of B&N taking a look at the Borders business. Few reports seem to offer any kind of analysis on the merits of any type of combination and even fewer seem interested in a wondering who the 40 or so other companies/entities are that have indicated some level of interest.
At the meeting, Jones was quoted as saying: "The investments that we've made during the past year ... certainly affected our financial performance in 2007... We feel that this is the year when we'll start reaping some of those benefits." (FreePress) It has always been a wonder to me that this company continues to invest in an expensive 'bet the company' revamp of its retail presence (off and on-line) while management is claiming they are cash strapped. As an investor, you would expect to reap all those benefits but not only could their timing not be worse but management don't appear to know when to both change course or ratchet back on the spending throttle.
In the UK, high street retailer WH Smiths have been linked with a bid for Paperchase. Reports suggest a value of $100mm (some say higher some say lower). The best thing that could happen for Borders is for PE to buy the whole thing. Only months ago, Paperchase was viewed as a key component of the company's future business strategy but having needlessly mortgaged the business, Jones and co have backed themselves into a corner where selling assets that should be supporting them in a downturn is considered as viable solution to their problems. Rest in peace.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Cramer Hates Media
"I hate media stocks."...."The world got changed by two companies," he says. "Apple is taking away the profitability of TV, and Google is taking it away in print. And it's never going to reverse." In the near term, Google is the bigger villain."It's just a parasite," he says. "It doesn't create content, it steals it, borrows it, shares it. It's no secret that print media is in trouble. It's why Gannett has gone from $80 a share in 2001 to less than $30 nowadays and why the New York Times has gone from $50 to less than $19 in the same time frame.Time Warner, too, is saddled with print by way of a huge magazine business. Time Warner is a content company for old people," Cramer says. "I try to get my kids to read magazines and newspapers, but no kids do. It's a tragedy."
He doesn't care too much for book retail either.
Patent Approved: Is This A Joke?
The following is a description of the patent application which has apparently been approved by the US Patent Office.
A method (Figure 3) for creating and managing customized print media through an enhanced content management process is disclosed. A print media customer, which may be an individual or organization, is profiled to determine content preferences (step 122). Profiling may be based on face-to-face or electronic surveys, Internet usage patterns, buying patterns, or other criteria. Content associated with the preferences is obtained and analyzed (step 124). Content affinities, or relationships between the content and other content in a content network, are determined, and may influence the print media produced (steps 128 and 130). A history of the content is maintained, to ensure content is not duplicated (step 126). Both substantive and non-substantive content, such as advertising content, is used. Both the content and layout of the print media can be customized (step 132).The "steps" refer to a diagram. Further details of the above appear here. The description of the patent includes the following:
And then lastly,This invention provides a comprehensive method for effectively creating and managing customized print media through an enhanced content management process.
Summary of the Invention: In accordance with the embodiments described herein, method comprises customizing print media for organizations and individuals. The information for customization may derive from computer-based applications, internet-based sources, or more traditional, non-electronic survey techniques.
While the invention has been described with respect to a limited number of embodiments, those skilled in the art will appreciate numerous modifications and variations therefrom. It is intended that the appended claims cover all such modifications and variations as fall within the true spirit and scope of the invention.Is this yet another example of the USPO inability to guage real innovation versus patenting "processes." Or is PND over reacting?
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Champions Again (Of Europe)
Only wish I was there. BBC Report.
B&N In Competitive Benchmarking
Barnes and Noble has put together a team of executives and advisers to look
into the possible acquisition, the Journal said, citing a person familiar with the situation. Borders said in March that it might sell itself as it has struggled with liquidity and economic issues that have cut into customers' discretionary spending.
Time will tell if this amounts to much.
Link Here.
And while you are there, check out his "what I have learned in four years of blogging"
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Dohle to Head Random House: UPDATE
(Also, looks like his name is spelled with a K and not a c: Markus).
UPDATE FROM BERTELSMANN CORPORATE:
Hartmut Ostrowski, Chairman and CEO of Bertelsmann AG, announced today that Peter Olson, 58, will step down at his own initiative from his positions as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Random House and as a member of the Executive Board of Bertelsmann AG, effective May 31. Olson will pursue an academic career. Markus Dohle, 39, will become the new Chairman and CEO of Random House. He was appointed by the Supervisory Board of Bertelsmann AG and will succeed Mr. Olson on the Bertelsmann Executive Board as of June 1. Mr. Dohle is presently member of the Arvato AG Executive Board and CEO of Arvato Print. Dohle’s successor at Arvato will be announced shortly. The Direct Group North America reporting line will shift from Peter Olson to Bertelsmann’s Chief Financial Officer Thomas Rabe.In addition to the above announcement, Ostrowski also announced that
Richard Sarnoff, President of Bertelsmann Digital Media Investments and a member of the Supervisory Board of Bertelsmann AG, will take on the additional role of Co-Chairman of Bertelsmann, Inc., reporting to Bertelsmann CFO Thomas Rabe, effective immediately. In this new position, Mr. Sarnoff will play a key role in Bertelsmann's strategic and corporate development activities in the US, where he will work in close cooperation with executives from the divisions and the Corporate Center. Hartmut Ostrowski stated: “The US market is the world's largest and most dynamic in media as well as services, and as Bertelsmann both refines and expands our portfolio of activities in the US, we are fortunate to have an executive of Richard Sarnoff's caliber, profile, expertise, and background to take on the Co-Chairman role at Bertelsmann, Inc.”
Cengage Reports Continued Improved Performance
Segments:
Academic and Professional:
Revenues for the quarter up 17.3% to $157.6mm with EBITDA up sharply to $13.6mm
YTD Revenues up 6.8% to $948.9mm with EBITDA up 6.2% to $414.2mm
Gale:
Revenues for the quarter were down 5.5% to $61.9mm with EBITDA down 11.7% to $21.1mm
YTD Revenues down 4.4% to $229.3mm with EBITDA up 4.8% to $102.6mm
International
Revenues for the quarter were up 9.4% to $67.3mm with EBITDA up 87.9% to $(0.7)mm
YTD Revenues were up 7.7% to $259.3mm with EBITDA up 18% to $35.4mm
Presentation
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Thoughts on a Publishing Manifesto
The locked-in perception of the book as a unit or a product has also led to digital ‘strategies’ which largely consist of the digitisation of existing print texts in order to create eBooks. This in turn has led to an obsessive focus on the reading device and a perception that the emergence of a ‘killer device’ will be a key driver in unlocking a digital future for books in the way that the iPod was, say, for music. This is a flawed perspective in a number of ways, not least because it fails to recognise the enormous amount of online or digital ‘reading’ that already takes place on non-book-specific devices such as desktop PCs, laptops, PDAs and mobiles, but also because it fails to recognise that the very nature of books and reading is changing and will continue to change substantially. What is absolutely clear is that publishers need to become enablers for reading and its associated processes (discussion; research; note-taking; writing; reference following) to take place across a multitude of platforms and throughout all the varying modes of a readers’ activities and lifestyle.
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Big BullyBoy Amazon
PUBLISHERS ARE REACTING angrily to what one senior executive described as a “crude” attempt by Amazon to increase its discount. “It is going from publisher to publisher with extortionate demands, and if it does manage to get a figure from one publisher it is then going back to the first house and saying x has agreed to such-and-such.”
Bloomsbury recently had a terms dispute with the bookseller which resulted in Amazon removing the 'Buy Now' button from certain Bloomsbury titles on its site. But one CEO commented: “We are prepared to lose a year's sales with Amazon. They may try many things but we are not moving. We have been foolish enough to give in and grant generous terms in the past, but we're not giving any more.”
Friday, May 16, 2008
Book Launch 2.0
This is funny video about book promotion in the web 2.0 age. Sadly, the 1.0 world wasn't that great but it's only got worse.
Tip of the hat to Brantley
AAP Supports .ePub Standard
Adam Hodgkin at Exact Editions reports on the same announcement and captures the essence perfectly:
It is a mostly waffly and empty letter and will not carry weight in the tussle between Google (which should have minimal need for the EPUB format) and Amazon which is broadly on the books-are-a-file side of the fence and ought to be using EPUB for its Kindle, but is not. Whether digital books are citeable and searchable, page-fixed, digital resources; or electronic texts within a Kindle/Sony/Iliad reader will be clearer in a year or two. I doubt that it will be settled by October of this year.