Friday, August 25, 2006
News: Amazon's Digital Platform. Book Pricing. Harlequin. Cody's Bookstore.
I thought this article about comments made by Sumner Redstone was relevant to book publishers and their approach to pricing. Publishers are too rigid in the manner in which prices are set and managed. As digital publishing becomes more prevalent and deeper knowledge and understanding of how markets work - via The Long Tail type analysis - these trends should almost force a rethink about how books are priced. It would seem to me, that a rigid approach to pricing results in lost revenue. As we all know, airlines are masters at the yield curve and this is not to say publishers should be that sophisticated but if they adopt more flexible approaches to pricing it could result in all kinds of impact on remainders, returns, the second hand market and so on. For example, could a publisher 'recover' a portion of the used book market by offering new copies at market rate prices (plus a small premium for new)? This would be long after initial release of the title. Would buyers by willing to pay a little more than the used price for a new book especially if they knew that in doing so the author would receive a share of the purchase price whereas with the used copy they do not? This idea is not a new idea nor is it a panacea but I think it suggests some market testing.
Harlequin.
I hate to harp on this, but this company with one of the strongest brands in publishing and with a huge market opportunity staring them in the face still seems weak kneed and hesitant.
My other blog on this.
Cody's Bookstore in Berkeley a famed independent for many years closed recently. Here is a perspective on what went wrong. It reflects more than a bookstore issue.
Lastly, watchers of the Booker List will note three Australian authors made the long list. As far as I can gather - no comment from The Australian newspaper regarding their 'gotcha story' about Patrick White and the in ability of great Australian writers to get published.
Thursday, August 24, 2006
Album Liner Notes Books
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
Snakes on a Plane
ShakespeaRe-Told:
(A search for a clip turned up this funny clip of The Beatles doing Midsummer; why or when I have no idea but I have never seen it before).
Monday, August 21, 2006
Cybersex, Secondlife and Myspace
Anyone for CyberSex? Predictably, sex plays some part in the content available. Derivations of the For Dummies series include CyberSex for Dummies and Escorting for Dummies. I have no idea whether these are official Wiley titles - what are the chances? A search on bookstores and books found a few store locations and navigating to them was relatively easy. Content including the above was not significant in choice. Some other titles covered topics specific to creating an identify within the game and some additional sex titles. One store was selling e-books which were on 'display' enabling the ability to page turn and review the content. In all the book stores were underwhelming but I expect the customers were engaged elsewhere in the game and within this context books aren't particularly interesting. I suspect some enterprising person will think up a unique application connected to the game.
On Myspace there are many bookstores represented with profiles with their ranking determined by the number of friends. Atomic books is typical of the stores that have profiles. It is difficult to say how many there are but clearly this is a viable method of advertising/PR to a very targeted group of consumers to whom it can be hard to introduce to books. Leftbank books located in Seattle is also similarly edgy; they describe themselves as 'anarchist' booksellers. Some stores look like they do more to promote retail than others.
Searching 'groups' for 'books' and 'mystery books' results in a few groups dedicated to reading but the result set is also 'polluted' with results that clearly have little if anything to do with books. There are over 5000 profiles returned for 'books' but only eleven for 'mystery books'. Lastly, I searched for library and I was unexpectedly surprised. Librarians have seen the virtues of setting up a myspace profile for their libraries and they use it to engage the young adult community. This is exciting because it shows that some libraries are willing to experiment and engage a target audience on their terms. Hannepin County Library in MN is representative of the libraries on myspace. Central Falls Public library (a Hannepin friend) is also a great site. Myspace definitely represents an opportunity to engage. Here is their note for the summer reading program:
Summer Reading Program Current mood: excited.
Our Summer Reading Program has officially begun! So if you're a kid (or the parent of a kid) between 6 and 12 years old stop by and sign up to read and win prizes! To kick off our program, Katie Latimer (check out http://www.katielatimer.com/) will be here Wednesday, June 28th at 2p.m. to tell stories. She's a native Rhode Islander who's been telling stories since she was thirteen. In 1998 she won the National Youth Storytelling Olympics and has been captivating audiences throughout New England every since!
Hannepin allows myspace creators to add the a script to their web pages that provides a search box on their web page:
Need to find a book or other library materials but are busy on your MySpace page and don't want to leave? Don't worry you can now add the Hennepin County Library catalog search box right to your MySpace. It's fun, it's easy and you can have the convenience of the library on your own MySpace page. Instructions for adding the library search box:
http://www.hclib.org/teens/MySpace/AddCatalogsearch.cfm
As I mentioned on another post it will be interesting to see if the influence of Harpercollins will result in any changes on the myspace site that effects more support for books and reading. The viral nature of some of the video advertising Harpercollins is experiementing with is perfect for the myspace environment and I can't believe they are not looking at how to take advantage.
Laslty, to bring this full circle, a number of enterprising individuals have established a Secondlife library. It is still a work in progress but it will be interesting to see how this evolves. Will content vendors make their content available via database license to the Secondlife Library?
Sunday, August 20, 2006
Old Gunter Grass
Grass is a 20th century master. Why did he expect no one to think his decision to keep quiet about his SS call-up to go un-noticed? And why the SS? His biography is on sale today and is expected to sell out immediately. He will make a few bucks (Euros) but I tend to agree with this opinion in the IHT; that this is less about money than about him dealing with the inevitable likelihood that after his death some cub reporter is going to find the evidence. I guess he believes that his comments and arguments while he is alive regarding this experience is better than nothing at all and could help mitigate the inevitable reversionary review of his master-works. His initial public comments and I suppose his narrative that it was some impetuous action of a boy who wanted to get out of the house seems to me to be a little gratuitous. But who am I to say. The fact he kept this quiet all these years seems more than accidental and particularly calculated. If he joined the regular army and then 60 years later told everyone he wanted to defend his country I am not sure anyone would have paid too close attention.
Saturday, August 19, 2006
Audio Book Publishers Report: MediaBay, Audible
MediaBay has had some reported financial difficulties recently and unfortunately, their financial results are not great for the first half 2006. Net sales were $2.6 million for the six months ended June 30, 2006, down from $5.6 million for the six months ended June 30, 2005. The company made a strategic decision to migrate thier business model to one based on digital distribution through partnerships with MSN, Yahoo, AOL, etc. so their content is available via these music services. As a result revenue comparisons year on year are misleading. Net loss applicable to common stockholders for the six months ended June 30, 2006 was $15.7 million, or $1.49 per diluted common share, compared to a net loss of $22.2 million, or $4.36 per diluted common share for the six months ended June 30, 2005. With allowence for extraordinary items their net income was virtually the same as last year which will not be enough to raise their market cap. This is important because it is currently at $3mm and NASDAQ issued them a warning in June that they needed to raise their value to over $5mm. The press release doesn't mention this or what their plans are and they have until September 25th to comply. The company retained a Banker in February for the generic 'review of strategic options'. Since the press release on the results was sparse I am thinking something is brewing.
Some of MediaBay's digital content partners include BBC, Blackstone, CBS Radio, Harper Collins, Hay House, Oasis, Penguin Audio, Random House, Simon & Schuster, Sound Room, and Zondervan.
Audible Inc. reported their six month numbers in late July which were better with revenues for the six months up over $10mm versus the same period last year. Net income however was significantly lower than the same period last year due to higher royalty payments. Audible has benefited significantly from its relationship with Apple and the IPOD. It should be interesting to see if there is any negative impact to the Audible business model if the new IPOD is equiped with with an e-book reader as most people expect. Audible may be a legitimate channel for Apple to work with in suppling them with ebook content from publishers. Apple wouldn't have to deal with the toublesome publishers directly. Audible's stock price is slightly higher than their 12mth low but half their 12 mth high. Other stats are in the press release.
Here is a little more on Audio books from a prior post.
Thursday, August 17, 2006
Who's moving my E-Book?
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
Toss'in and a Turning; Can't sleep - What to do?
Monday, August 14, 2006
Blurb.com & Self-Publishing
In the case of Blurb.com you download software which turns out to be some limited editing tools and a set of templates. These templates are organized by the type of book you want to create: cookbook, blog, photo album. The thing that got my attention was that you can create a photo book of your photos for less than $30. It did seem to be too good to be true so I decided to try it. The result was beyond my expectation; the book is professional looking, well bound, the images are great and it has a dust jacket. The software was ridiculously easy to use and if I hadn’t decided to add more photos I could have had the book in my hands within five days of downloading the software. My forty image book cost $30 plus shipping. I treated this as an experiment and will do it again and will use more of the functionality which allows text and differing layouts. Blurb offers books up to 440 pages in length ($80). The end product is so well produced that I suggested to my better half that she could provide a book of before and after pictures for her interior design clients by way of a parting gift.
My book is now on their web site as part of the catalog and anyone is able to purchase the title. It doesn’t appear that you can preview the title and I hope they add this functionality. (The software is in beta). Anyone can visit the site and buy my book for $40 – although I get nothing of this amount, but then, that is not why I did it. If someone did want to sell their own titles they can buy them from Blurb.com and then sell them on at a higher price. I have thousands of slide photos and I have been putting off going fully digital; this is now my motivation.
Lastly, this blog entry has been forming in my head since I got my book last week and low and behold Blurb.com just got $12mm in new funding. The other sites I was told about were picaboo and sharedink.com if you want to try them.
Friday, August 11, 2006
More on Patrick White
Thursday, August 10, 2006
Christian Retail: Dead or Just Breathing Hard
Recently, in reporting on the Harpercollins results, Jane Friedman commented on the decline in their Christian imprints as one reason why their results were not better. These comments were reported at Publishers Marketplace. She commented that the segment was “seeing hard times”. Harpercollins has had impressive wins with Christian titles particularly The Purpose Driven Life and their acquisition of the publisher Zondervan a number of years ago was prescient. While all of this made sense to me, I wasn’t too surprised to see The Bookstandard release a story with the headline Is Religious Publishing in Trouble (although the use of the word Religious versus Christian should have been a give-away). The article promised to “investigate what is going on in religious publishing so far this year.” But is doesn’t; it is entirely superficial and I would have thought that a company with more resources than me could do a much better job.
Firstly, there are a few items wrong with this story. 1. There are no primary references. 2. There are no relevant stats quoted (Bookscan data is not relevant). 3. The Christian retail market is not homogeneous; in recent years there has been a close partnership between ECPA and Christian Booksellers Association (CBA). 4. Religious books don’t equal Christian books just ask any ECPA member. This simple error tells me the author is missing something fundamental.
So what is going on. ECPA publishes annual statistical data derived from their POS data and from industry market research. ECPA has not released recent sales numbers to the public but it is a good bet that book sales through the predominately Christian retail outlets have continued to increase in line with prior years. Additionally, as this press release reports Christian buyers buy more and buy more frequently. And look at the following quote from CBA:
"According to CBA, the international trade association for Christian
retail, sales of Christian products are on the rise. Sales of religious
books grew from $4 billion in 2000 to $4.34 billion in 2004, the CBA reports.
Christian retailers still sell a majority, about 53 percent, of the goods,
while warehouse clubs, big-box stores and national, general bookstores sold
31 percent."
Competition is a bigger deal with Christian retail than in years past, with more and more ‘mainstream’ retailers such as Borders, Barnes & Noble, Sam’s Club and Costco taking Christian publishing more seriously. This is taking volume from the Christian independents. Unfortunately, many industry participants believe there will be a reduction in the number of independents similar to what happened to the ABA stores during the 1990’s. Additionally, the two largest Christian chain stores Lifeway and Family Christian are growing more sophisticated and market savy which could have an impact on independents as well.
With over 2000 CBA stores, the reference to the Bookscan data in The BookStandard article is irrelevant because these stores don’t report to Bookscan. Their numbers maybe directional but in the manner in which they are used they could result in a wrong conclusion. Quoting the Bookscan manager makes no sense when they could have called ECPA and CBA directly for some relevant insight.
Lastly, aside from the Religious versus Christian semantics the product mix is very different for Christian retail. In addition to the traditional fiction/non-fiction, there are devotionals, music and gifts and other merchandise and published products which don’t fit the traditional bookselling model. For a true analysis of whether Christian retail is dead, some understanding and analysis of this issue and it’s impact should be discussed.
It seems there has been some interest in this topic whether driven by Jane Friedman or not and below are some links to other news reports. To understand what is really going on in Christian retail there is a report published by Simba in conjunction with ECPA if you are interested.
Nashua Telegraph
Ventura County Star
Wednesday, August 09, 2006
News Update: Google, Pearson, VNU
On the heals of the private equity purchase of VNU, the company has announced a high level executive change at VNU business media. Long time information and business publisher Robert Krakoff will join VNU to run their US publishing operation out of New York. Recently, Krakoff had his own consulting company but has spent long stints at Reed Elsevier and Advanstar. He replaces Mike Marchesano who is bumped upstairs to run a corporate wide efficiency initiative named Project Forward.
Pearson announced yesterday - first in error and then formally - that they have purchased Mergermarket for just less than $200mm. The acquisition will integrate with the FT group. The company has made no secret of adding new companies to each of their operating units and this is the second major acquisition for the FT group in six months.
Tuesday, August 08, 2006
News From The Library Side
At the Library of Congress, management have been attepting to deal with two major problems they and the rest of the library community must address. These are the vast increase in the amount of information and 'published' product they need to catalog as part of their remit and secondly the decrease in qualified people to do the work. There have been a number of initiatives undertaken to deal with these issues and the library is looking at all types of things from outsourcing data entry tasks to radically changing how they catalog items and material. Clearly one of the more fundamental changes they have to accomodate is the growth of electronic products - where there is no longer a print version - which raises storage, versioning and access issues that they have never had to deal with before. Having said that, LOC has had multimedia collections for at least 100 years and recently created a digital archive in Virginia for their audio and film content. One of the best aspects of this - aside from preservation - is that access to this content is now so much better.
As will all change however, there are questions that need to be addressed by interested parties and as Library Journal reported recently ALA has recently raised some issues about changes the Library is proposing.
Lastly, Eric Hellman at Openly Informatics refered me to this podcast from Georgia Tech. The podcast tells of various intiatives Georgia Tech are attempting to improve the library experience.
Monday, August 07, 2006
Thomson Corporation Reports Strong Results
Thomson President and CEO Richard J. Harrington commented on the results:
"We are pleased to report strong results for the second quarter. Our performance reflects our continued ability to execute against our three strategic priorities - driving organic growth as well as business and portfolio optimization. Notably, Thomson achieved another solid quarter of organic growth, up 6% over the prior-year period, with each market group contributing to the increase. Further, Thomson continued to translate revenues into profits, growing operating profit margin 100 basis points over the second quarter of last year.”
The company said their full year revenue estimate will be in line with their goal of 7-9% revenue growth. Full-year 2006 revenue growth will continue to be driven primarily by existing businesses, supplemented by tactical acquisitions. Thomson expects continued improvement in its operating profit margin in 2006. Thomson also expects to continue to generate strong free cash flow in 2006.
More information as follows for each of the business units:
Legal & Regulatory
- Revenues increased 9%, to $923 million, and segment operating profit grew 13%, to $277 million. Organic revenue grew 8% and growth from acquisitions was 1%.
- Organic revenue growth was largely driven by strong double-digit global online solutions, software and services, as well as the timing of certain bar review courses that were recognized this quarter versus the third quarter in 2005.
Learning
- Revenues were $456 million, a 5% increase over the prior-year period. Excluding the effects of currency exchange, revenues grew 4%, virtually all of which was organic.
- Revenue growth was driven by a 6% increase in the global higher education businesses, particularly custom publishing services, and Arts & Sciences and Business & Economics textbook sales.
Financial
- Revenues increased 6%, to $499 million, and segment operating profit increased 23%, to $92 million. Organic revenue growth was 5% and growth from acquisitions was 1%.
Scientific & Healthcare
- Revenues were $229 million, up 6% from 2005, and segment operating profit increased 9%, to $47 million. Organic revenues grew 5% and growth from acquisitions was 1%.
Here is a link to their webcast details.
Sunday, August 06, 2006
Open World Cat Database Access
Also, on the side bar is a link to Lorcan Dempsey's blog at OCLC. He is the chief brianiac over there and routinely links to all kinds of important happenings in library land.
News Update: Random House, Bertelsman, Smithsonian, Indigo Books
Bertelsmann have said this week that they are closer to selling their music publishing business which they need to do to enable them to pay for the 25% equity stake owned by Groupe Bruxelles. It doesn't hurt that they will get a great price for the publishing catalog.
Smithsonian announced that it is consolidating and expanding their web presence.
Indigo Books And Music of Canadian fame reported this week. Characterize these results (and that stock chart) with the results from Borders recently. Indigo have some great looking stores - great open layouts, coffee bars - which makes the experience fun. OK, they also have the benefit of being the only large chain book retailer in Canada but in all Canadian cities there are many great independent booksellers for competition. For many years, there have been rumors that Indigo was being prepared for sale to a big book retailer across the border. In the case of Borders, perhaps the acquisition should be the other way. Heather Riesman is now a successful book retailer and perhaps she could do a lot more with Borders than their new inexperienced management.
Saturday, August 05, 2006
Related to Jesus and The Holy Grail
The story reminded me of Monty Python:
The lady of the lake, her arms clad in the sheerest shimmering schamite (?), held aloft Excaliber, to exclaim that I Arthur shall become King of the Britons.
Eh, strange wimmin lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system
of government..... Listen, if I said I was an emperor just because
some moistened bint lobbed a scimitar at me they'd lock me away.....
It is interesting that the author was "laughed out of New York" a few years ago. Post DaVinci she is getting a better audience. Here is the title on Amazon just in case you want to improve its sales rank. I liked the review from PW "...unadorned facts numbingly narrated.." OK, so the quote might not be on point but it is still funny.
Friday, August 04, 2006
Simon & Schuster And Torstar Report
The new Viacom division CBS corporation which was created earlier this year reported for the first time this week and the financial results for Simon & Schuster were separated out. It is a the first time these results have been segmented for a number of years because Viacom used to combine them with other revenues. S&S revenues for the half year period were $357mm up 7% versus last year. Operating income of $12mm was up 35% versus 2005. The improvement was due to increases in distribution but how much this impacted the full six months versus the recent quarter.
Torstar Still Having Problems.
Torstar, which owns under leveraged (my opinion) Harlequin Enterprises, revenues "slumped" according to Reuters for the quarter ended September 30th. Revenues for the book division apparently lead the decline. S0me of the decline at Harlequin was due to a supplier bankruptcy which disrupted a mailing campaign. Operating profit for Harlequin was off 30% ($3.7mm) which was ascribed to "underlying operations." The US direct to consumer operation accounted for $2.4mm of this variance. No mention was made whether they would recover this income although they have completed the mailing via in-housing the operations. Full year 2005 revenues were $526mm down 2.5% from the prior year. Operating income was down by a similar percentage. This business is crying for web applications but in a recent presentation by Harlequin I have seen they are incredibly conservative in spite of the resounding success of their tests (look for the presentations on the right of the page under "Connected Mobile Presentations"). Think about what Harlequin could do with the type of web initiatives that Harpercollins announced yesterday.
Wolters Kluwer Reports
WK has five operating divisions: Health, Corporate and Financial Services, Tax, Accounting and Legal, TAL Europe and Education. Full year the company expect to exceed their organic growth target of 2%, hit a 16% operating margin versus a target of 17% (due to higher product development and sales and marketing expenses) and cash flow will be on target. Acquisitions made (and presumably planned) will be dilutive with EPS down 10% versus target. Here is their financial presentation.
Thursday, August 03, 2006
More Book Videos
Also on The Times website today is an article on a 'see inside the book' application from Harpercollins.
(Why I had to go search for these ads and they weren't linked to in the NYT article is a mystery to me. Hitting on the VNU link - owner of The Bookstandard - got me a share price quote. How awesome!).
Wednesday, August 02, 2006
Publishing E-Books - Long Tail?
Firstly, publishers have finally realized they need to have their own digitization strategy and not be driven to service providers. A number of high profile trade publishers (Simon & Schuster, Harpercollins, VHPS) have announced their own digitization projects. Secondly, despite some significant efforts there is no IPod product for books. It is increasingly likely books will not have their own reader (don’t tell SONY) but you will be able to access books on game consoles, PDA, and IPods. Apple will launch a new version of the IPod next year and books are likely to be part of the mix. Lastly, the fact that there is little actual choice means that consumers have a better than average chance they will be disappointed with selection. Which begets the apparent disinterest in e-Books.
Assuming publishers begin launching their titles – including backlist - in a big way over the next few years how will they change their pricing models and distribution? In publishing, a title is aggressively marketed well in advance of publication to get the big buyers to purchase. Then in immediate advance of publication, co-op advertising and author tours, public relations, etc. are rolled out. In most cases the promotion doesn’t last that long after publication. This is particularly true if the title doesn’t sell at retail as expected. With the introduction of e-book titles in significant numbers, the publishers will need to determine how, when and at what price they market these titles. For example, assuming there is an IPod application, Barnes & Noble will not be happy if the e-book titles are available when the print book is still on tables in their store. Will B&N get a piece of the revenue from the e-book sale, will there be cross promotion discounts, isn’t in-store placement advertising for the e-book? There are a multitude of questions but as I think about it the application of the principles of the long tail will be important.
I ran a direct mail business for a short time (no prior experience) and I was so proud of myself because I figured out that I could determine the total number of units sold for each promotion with as few as three data points. (This is basic direct mail – go figure). Some of these promotions could run six months but the experience from promotion to promotion was always consistent. Book titles sold on a title by title basis or aggregated as in the long tail analysis will act the same way. What this means is that publishers will be able to choose their spots and maximize revenue by bringing e-book titles out at logical times according to where units sold indicate they are on the curve. Additionally, they can – and should – manipulate (lower) prices the further out on the curve the title is.
When these titles are available it will be interesting to see how promotion and pricing are handled. Will they launch them all in one go, or will they ‘celebrate’ the release of selected titles periodically and try to get some buzz going? Will the whole effort full flat because users crave interaction and/or TV will also be available on IPod? We will find out, and regardless it will be a much more preferable situation when a reader can visit a web site and select any title they want no matter how obscure. Or have titles periodically pushed to them like NetFlix. Oh, a rental/lending model – now there’s another issue…..
Tuesday, August 01, 2006
Penguin Blog
It does beg the question, that if the people over at Penguin could be this oblivious what will they have to tell us that could be relevant? Personally, I don't look forward to a 'corporate' site - why doesn't every author have their blog at author.penguin.com? They could stuff these sites with all kinds of interesting items supporting the books and the author. That is far more compelling than what they seem to have come up with nervousness or not. What Penguin can do at a corporate level is to guide visitors to author sites to other related authors via linking, related information, rethinking the book guides to incorporate more compare and contrast, etc. It also seems to me that the whole announcement is one big yawn. The only people that may have noticed this at all are "in the trade." Are we their target audience or are they going for readers/consumers? It is hard to know at this point but I don't see consumers rushing to the penguin blog and I am not at all sure about us "in the trade".
Monday, July 31, 2006
Pearson Announces Second Half Results
In Education, the company expects to grow revenues in the 3-5% range (which is a wide range but reflects their need to be conservative at this stage) but also commented that the first half was stronger than expected. Operating margins are set to improve further in k-12 and remain constant in Higher Ed. Both K-12 and Higher Ed were strong during the prior six months with both segments performing better than expected. Additionally, both have continued to beat the competition in key adoptions, open territories and with new editions of important College subject titles. The company continues to expand its online online and assessment programs in Higher Ed with a 29% increase in registrations for their online learning systems.
The trade group at Penguin is also doing well with a record number of titles on the NYT best seller lists and 43 top ten titles in the UK. They also won a number of literary prizes including their second Pulitzer in a row, Orange and Whitbread Awards. Operating income is higher than the prior period and they expect further improvements.
The Financial Times group, which has come under fire from analysts for at least the past 12 months is showing improvement with more expected. Circulation is up 5% and advertising revenues are up 11%. They expect further operating income improvements over the balance of the year and continued steady organic growth. They have made recent announcements about integrating the print and online publishing operations which will improve content, raise efficiencies and reduce some expenses.
In the first half of this FY, the company has spent over $500mm on acquisitions in Education and the FT group. As the company stated in their annual report, it is their intention to invest in testing and administrative software companies which are compatible with the strategic goals of the education unit. This they have done with the purchases of National Evaluation Systems, Chancery Software and PowerSchool. (The last two are noted in prior posts). Incredibly, Pearson believes they have an installed based of half of all students in US schools which is over 29,000 schools and 25mm students. This must represent a long term strength of their US School business. At they FT they purchased Quote.com earlier this year.
There was no word on additional acquisitions for the full year.
Here is the Pearson web site with their earnings press release and powerpoint presentation.
Here is a summary of their comments:
PEARSON 2006 INTERIM RESULTS:
- Good start to the year. Sales up 8%; adjusted operating profit up 57% to £73m.
- Sustained organic growth and market share gains. Pearson Education sales up 11% with
leading position in US School new adoption market and 4% growth in US Higher Education; FT Group sales up 6% with FT advertising revenues up 11%; Penguin sales up 2%. - Strong profit growth in all businesses. Pearson Education, traditionally loss-making in the first half, breaks even (loss of £21m in 2005). FT Group profits up 23% to £55m and Penguin profits up 38% to £18m.
- Full-year outlook maintained. Pearson’s profits are always heavily weighted to the second half of the year. With this first-half performance, we continue to expect strong earnings growth and cash generation and a further significant rise in our return on invested capital in 2006.
Marjorie Scardino, chief executive, said:
“These results provide further evidence of the quality and potential of our business. All parts of Pearson are making strong progress, and our steady investment in new content and services is paying off with sustained organic
growth, market share gains and margin improvement. We remain confident that 2006 will be another good year for Pearson both in competitive and financial
terms.”
Sunday, July 30, 2006
Pelecanos
This week there were two articles in the New York Times and I suspect there will be more over the coming months in news titles across the US. As the articles point out, his writing life has not been easy but I am glad he has stuck with it. I was also in DC around the time he began to write full time and it was very hard to like the city. Everyone was on coke; we had a mayor caught in the act, newscasters were in trouble for it and a top athlete killed himself with it. The city had one of the largest murder rates in the US with over 2000 killed in 1988 - and it is a very small city. I couldn't wait to get out, but Pelecanos' novels offer a truer, more complex view of the city that in the 1980s was hard to appreciate. Gentrification has come to DC in subsequent years and I wonder how he will deal with this trend.
I first came across his work, while walking through the aisles at a BookExpo (Los Angeles) and I happened to pick up a ARC which was two titles bound together. The book sat next to my bed for six months and when I finally read Hell To Play I immediately read the other novel Right As Rain. I was hooked and I have been able to pick up first editions of his first three novels which are hard to find. Interestingly, St Martin's was his initial publisher and he didn't do so well with them. In my experience, St Martin's seems to find good mystery writers but can't take them to the next level. Pelecanos has been compared to Richard Price and Denis Lehane - both excellent authors - but I believe Pelecanos breaths more culture and texture into his novels that either of these authors.
Pelecanos has also recently edited an omnibus of short detective crime fiction published by Akashic. DC Noir follows on from Brooklyn Noir which refected short stories located in Brooklyn NY and was excellent. I haven't got the DC one yet but will be looking for it.
Here is an interview with NPR on the novel True Grit which is one of Pelecanos' favorite books.
Friday, July 28, 2006
Reed Elsevier Reports First Half
It all seems to be coming good for Reed - other than the Educational market that is. Reed released their mid term results this week and they are quite good. (McGraw Hill also seems to be having a good year and Pearson is to report on July 31th). Revenues are up 8% and profit is up 14%. While they are not over exuberant about the full year, it would seem they are in a strong place to exceed their full year budget. Here is their presentation.
Their first half was expected to be stronger but they haven't down played the full year results. Sir Crispin:
"The first half of 2006 has seen a good financial performance and further
encouraging progress in the development of our business in an increasingly
digital environment. Trusted information, technology enabled, and increasingly
integrated into customer workflows, is making our customers more effective
professionally and making Reed Elsevier a more valued partner. The first half
financial performance provides a good platform to meet our 2006 financial
goals."
Organic growth is 1% greater than their budget at 6% over the first half last year and their adjusted EPS is up 16% versus their budgeted expectation of 10%. The EPS number has been due to more favorable tax payments and better performance in Exhibitions versus last year. They are however cautious and expect some of this to reverse in the second half.
All their business segments performed with strength with the exception of Harcourt which had much lower operating profits than expected. Management suggests that the second half is far stronger for revenues and profit - although they would have budgeted that way. Operating margin was down more than 1ppt versus last year while revenues were actually higher. Management is also saying that operational issues are being addressed.
Reed also mentioned that they may speed up and add to the share repurchase plan thay have in place. (Incidentally McGraw Hill also have a similar repurchase effort underway). Reed have also built up an employee share benefit plan. The divisional results were summarized as follows:
- Elsevier: Good subscription renewals and growing online sales
- LexisNexis: Strong growth in legal digital solutions, risk and international
- Harcourt Education: Encouraging success in US textbook adoptions; supplemental building; assessment underperformed
- Reed Business: Strong growth in online and Exhibitions; benefit from biennial show cycling
- Phasing of business this year benefits first half growth
- On track to meet 2006 financial targets
- Reed Elsevier PLC and Reed Elsevier NV dividend up 11%; total of £288m/€420m shares repurchase
Wednesday, July 26, 2006
McGraw Hill Reports Second Quarter; Scholastic FY 2006
McGraw Hill reported their second quarter results and they are quite good. They have now had two strong quarters this FY and as a result they have improved thier guidence for the full year EPS. Terry McGraw:
This is a transcript of the call from SeekingAlpha.com. Later in the call they discuss the education unit which they indicate has later adoptions this year but which they must believe will be stronger than budget. During their second half is education represents a larger percentage of total revenue, but margins are lower than their information business. The information businesses appear to be driving their first half growth."Our new EPS guidance for 2006 is $2.44 to $2.49, and again that also excludes
the incremental impact of all stock-based compensation. To be clear, that
excludes $0.13 per incremental stock-based compensation this year and $0.04 for
the one-time charge for the elimination of the restoration stock option program,
which was already announced in the first quarter. With more robust opportunities taking shape next year, we expect to return to double-digit earnings growth in 2007."
Scholastic FY 2006: Revenue up 10% versus 2005.
Scholastic reported their full year last week and the 2006 results retained some revenue from Harry Potter but not for the entire year. Here is their corporate presentation. In the presentation, management spoke of a challenging year and in looking forward spoke about an expense reduction plan designed to hold operating margins and EPS. Revenues for FY 2007 are forecasted to be flat ($2.3bill versus $2.1Bill and EPS lower (1.66 versus a range of $1.55 - $1.85). Management of the Scholastic balance sheets is a significant positive story for the year. They have $300mill in debt maturing in 2007 but multiple options to fund or refinance this debt.
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
American News
Laurence Pintak spent some time on vaction in California but was astounded at the lack of depth and base knowledge given to some of the reportage of the current Lebanese crisis. For example:
"At times, the coverage has seemed as much a fantasy as Disney's Space Mountain, and the level of Middle East knowledge on the part of some television anchorsHe goes on further to address the lack of basic geographic knowledge and the rush to salaciousness in the declaration of "World War Three". Given the proliferation of news channels and reporting it is bizarre that so little time is given to each story no matter how important. (Although if you are pretty, blond and dead you might get more coverage). Just last night on the BBC news at 7pm, fifteen full minutes was given over to the Lebanese situation - interestingly from a Southern Lebanese view point. Nothing like the coverage on NBC that evening.
only a few notches higher than that of the tattooed biker couple waiting in line
for the Pirates of the Caribbean ride".
Monday, July 24, 2006
Floyd Landis - It's all about the Hip
Thursday, July 20, 2006
Coping with Rejection
With apparently little else to do except embarrass a number of large Australian publishing houses, The Australian set out to prove that Patrick White couldn't get published in Australia today. The article doesn’t' really get that far but nevertheless all kinds of recriminations and navel gazing have erupted from the story. Some may recall that the UK Sunday Times conducted a similar "survey" using a title by V.S. Naipaul.
Since A Fringe of Leaves has been sitting on my parents bookshelf since publication, I thought I would look up what is said about White and his style. Here is a review of Fringe which suggests this may be a hard book to get into and understand. Words like complex and [un]pleasant are used to describe an allegorical story. Perhaps I will give this a go. Of course, White won the Nobel for his body of work, but here is a review of Eye of the Storm which is the book The Australian used for its "experiment".
Missing from the Australian article is any reference to the significant amount of new Australian publishing that these publishers are partially responsible for. Examples include, Tim Winton, Peter Carey, Shirley Hazzard and Andrew McGahan. (Even Bryce Courtney - for some anyway). In a weird way, I am not sure this scam could be tried in the US because I don't think the American public has a view on 'literary' heroes the way the UK, other European nations and Australia seem to.
Perhaps some in the US would get excited if under similar circumstances Portnoy's Complaint was rejected; I hate to say it but I think largely the story would disappear rapidly.
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
Harpercollins Does Video Trailer
As book readers become more readily identifiable via reading groups and sites like librarything.com, publishers will have a ready market to focus promotional activities on. Enabling some level of direct contact with readers has represented nirvana to large trade publishers and in recent years, aided by the growth of internet use, publishers are finding ways to get direct access. For example, it is now very easy to gain reader notes and book club questions for front list titles from all the major trade publishers. Not so long ago, most readers didn't give a thought to who the publisher of their book was (unless it was Harlequin). There will be much more integration of audio and video content to sell books in the short term. Additionally, I hope we will also see low production 30+ minute video programs similar to the material produced by the BBC to promote The Big Read promotion in the UK a few years ago. Unfortunately, I can't seem to find any video examples of the books the BBC committed to video. (These were not the Masterpiece Theater type productions). They were great and were an important component in driving enthusiasm for The Big Read programs.
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
Rent A Book
While this is not a unique idea, what is interesting about this program is that it is national. This may be a chain you haven't heard of. You can buy your book in Columbus, read it on the way to San Francisco and return it at their store at SF International for a 50% refund. Repeat the process for the return home. It would be interesting to know what the stats on this program are. As a concept this isn't new; however, I suspect that this is more marketing gimmick than anything. Buyers may think they will return a title but I am betting that only a small percentage actually do so. Purchasers think of the 50% discount and impulsively make a purchase decision. Generally there are few discounted titles at your typical airport store and adding the discount to a return is an interesting way to use discounting without giving money away on every purchase.Paradies has also announced a partnership with The New York Times to launch NYT branded stores at airports.
What's next a book version of NetFlix - perhaps not so far off.
Sunday, July 16, 2006
Business Travel
Business travel is horrible. It is no secret to most that the gloss went off traveling some time ago (like 30yrs ago) and with good reason. Traveling in small aluminum tubes, interacting in closer proximity to strangers than you might with your own family and dealing with the socially inept who have such limited sense of themselves that within in a five minute conversation (or overhearing their phone conversation) you know they are getting divorced and are putting their parents in a home.
I am sitting in an airport in Ohio - nothing especially going on except I have entered the 'shortly' time zone. That is your inbound aircraft will be landing 'shortly', the cabin crew will be arriving 'shortly', traffic control will be giving us a slot! 'shortly'. Hopefully I will be getting home shortly.
Friday, July 14, 2006
Digital Rice University
Monday, July 10, 2006
Publishing News: Steinbeck, E-Books and The Long Tail
There has been more reporting on the Steinbeck’s retention of their fathers material. This article focuses more on Thomas Steinbeck’s budding literary career. A book of short stories has been completed and it this success that has emboldened Thomas to be more forthright about his plans as an author.
Speaking of old literary history, I came across this article about a Canadian author who was incredibly successful in her day but is now largely forgotten. Mazo de la Roche wrote 16 novels - making her "rich and famous" - about an upper Canadian rural family named the Whiteoaks. She began the series in the 1920s as an entry in a writing contest and by the late 1940s she was one of the biggest selling English language authors. She sold over 11million copies and she even had a miniseries. On Amazon.com her titles are readily available but don't have a very impressive rank. Similar to Margaret Mitchell in Atlanta the town of Mississauga has created a museum out of the authors residence.
A number of news sources quoted this story from Bloomsbury in the UK about e-Book titles mainly because they are the publisher of Harry Potter and the word "spellbinding" appeared in the headline. The story picks-up on the continuing confusion on e-book formats but notes Bloomsbury is ready to jump when a standard emerges. Bloomsbury currently produce 24 titles which even given the format issue appears tepid at best. Related to this article (but not noted in it), an industry wide format was recently announced by the International Digital Publishing Forum (IDPF), and here is the website for review and comment on the draft standard. The IDPF has evolved into a very important industry group that is addressing format and other important issues relevant to e-book publishing. On the association website are presentations from their recent industry forum including a session that addressed why publishers aren't publishing more e-books particularly from their back list.
There are two articles this week in the UK Guardian on Chris Anderson and The Long Tail.
Thursday, July 06, 2006
Publishing News: Waterstones, Google and Copyright
I know it can't get over England's premature exit from the World cup, but I don't blame the world cup for a decrease in my productivity. (That would probably be due to the quad combo of US Open, Wimbledon, WC and Tour de France). Waterstones can't seem to catch a break, and as we noted when the Ottakars deal went through, the shine has gone off the UK book retailer market and this isn't good news for Waterstones. Remember Borders also referenced slower UK sales in their report a few months ago - no mention of the world cup though.
Google vs the Publishers - reprise
No idea why the Guardian is rehashing this story about Google being sued by the US publishers for their indiscriminate copying program. What is interesting is the sub-head suggests this could be a really interesting article about the future of publishing say 2020 but no. The article restates what many have already said about the Google program. What should be interesting to everyone is whether Google will change publishing and if so what does that mean? What will publishing companies look like? What will libraries be? Where will bookstores be? I have yet to see an article presented in the national press that thoughtfully discuss these issues.
Free with Purchase: Ferrari
I will have to look into this. The owner of Charterhouse Publishing is selling the business and the purchaser gets to keep the company car - a 308 Ferrari.
Is a Blogging Academic Publishing?
Interesting view point from the NY Observer and perhaps an accurate reflection of the direction of academic publishing. While blogs will retain significant attention when topical and intelligent, if the writer wants to condense the subject into something like book form it seems to me the book is still the answer. This is definitely not a bad thing since publishing via a blog is of course kinda like market research.
Gourmet Magazine to Publish Summer Book List
Phillips Electronics is sponsoring a 102 page supplement to be distributed with the August issue of Gourmet. Authors Conroy, Pratchet, Smiley are just some of the authors writing about food.
Friday, June 30, 2006
Publishing News: Clinton's Activism, Open Access, Audio Books
Clinton's Activism
Bill Clinton is to write a book on citizen activism and responsibility for Random House UK. The title will be released by Knopf in the US. According to the press release, Clinton will draw heavily on the time he has spent since leaving office where he has championed UN efforts in Africa, East Asia and more broadly through his Clinton Foundation.
Open Access Again..
While journals publishers were united in their disparaging disregard for the open access movement their arguments suggesting that their value add to the editorial and peer review process couldn't be replicated carried a grain of truth. So far, the open access movement has had only limited success and the large journal publishers continue to maintain and build strong revenue streams. The Royal Society in the UK, which has not supported the open access movement has launched a hybrid author pays/reader pays publishing model for journal articles. The RS has been attempting to get industry players to at least try different models for journal publishing and this is their attempt to lead the way. For the most part the rest of the industry appears indifferent to new methods; for them the old way works just fine.
Audio Books at the Library:
Walk into many large metropolitan library these days and the layout can remind one of a cross between Virgin Music and Blockbuster. Audio titles very much in the mix at your local library and are seeing increases in circulation due to the increasing number of titles available, the ramp-up in acceptance of audio books and an aging population that sees audio titles as a legitimate way to entertain themselves. The LA Times recently published an article which focused on the popularity of audio titles as well as pointing out the booming opportunities for web based access to library collections. With the increasing availablity of content downloadable from your local library, I wonder how long the current business model is going to last between publisher and library. It may be that we will see payments per patron check-out and embargoing enter the mainstream. This may not be a bad thing for libraries if a program were developed that reduced the initial purchase price - perhaps to zero - and paid publishers a fixed fee per check out. Libraries continually face budgeting issues and selection is always an issue when funds are limited; a model like this could enable a library to have access to all electronic and audio titles available thereby providing significant increased value for their patrons. "Selection" and to some extent collection development would become user/patron defined. An interesting model, and I think we will see more discussion of the role of libraries in an electronic and download world.
Former LA Times owner Big Second Thoughts:
The Chandler family cashed out a few years ago and threw their all in with the Tribune company, but after a few depressing years they want the whole thing broken up. Tribune on the other hand are content to buy back shares. Unfortunately, the Chandlers don't have enough support or equity to make more than a public fuss. Regretably, for the readers of the LA Times, Tribune, Newsday and others there don't appear to be too many innovative ideas being presented. Given the interest that the Knight Ridder titles eventually generated, it would seem there are many people who have high hopes and interesting ideas for reputable newspaper publishing companies.
Interview with Jane Friedman while on a fact finding trip to OZ.
Summer Reading from The Seattle Times
Friday, June 23, 2006
The Future of Educational Publishing
A few seismic changes have fractured the industry’s paradigm over the past five years. The migration to electronic educational material, the development of electronic platforms at institutions and a more recent focus on the benefits of social networking which take their form in testing and tutoring tools. What a publisher is now able to do is offer a student a range of content – in addition to the material required by the professor – which they can refer to for their entire student life as part of their “ electronic bookshelf”. (Obviously, this relationship can extend to life long learning thereby in theory extending the revenue per student significantly). As an electronic desktop the student may use one of the enterprise-wide educational platforms installed at many schools such as Blackboard and webCT. These tools aid the institution in tracking usage, feedback on materials, grade and maintain advisor to student links. Other benefits enable course management and content management for the institution. Lastly the more recent phenomenon of social networking is taking form in the expansion of testing and evaluation. Pearson for one, has invested heavily in the past twelve months to acquire testing companies that have established positions in the education market. What Pearson and others will do is to forge a tight bond with the students through evaluative testing, additional problem sets and assignments, feedback and tutoring. While these acquired companies may not operate completely as a myspace.com of education now, the intent is there to build a networked community of interest around the content the publisher has created.
Certainly not every course taken by a student is one which will retain their interest for life; however, most normal students will take courses in areas where they have some interest and this interest stays with them for life. Publishers have an opportunity to nurture that interest for an extended period of time and will be actively promoting life long learning programs via online courses, webinars, tutoring, offline seminars and travel, as well as the capacity to interact online with a large group of interested students and faculty.
Part two: How will the Publisher price their content and what is the position of the bookstore in all of this? Coming Soon – when I get around to it.
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
Newspapers: The Wave of the Future
Many have written off the newspaper industry as just another – perhaps more spectacular – victim of the internet age. They were saying that five years ago during the first internet boom but it still hasn’t happened. While subscription revenues and advertising numbers are off, many newspapers continue to operate near monopolies in their local markets and the larger metropolitan newspapers are finally starting to proactively incorporate new content and new delivery mechanisms into their web offerings. The NYT is just one example of the integration of traditional reporting and video, audio and extended coverage that is becoming routine. The one aspect of the web site versus the print is that I actually miss seeing the display ads in the print. In a weird way there is a ‘community’ aspect of the newspaper delivered by the local advertising that I don’t get on the web site.
The NYT doesn’t require a fee for access to their site – other than for some premium content and the archive - no doubt the newspaper companies still have to go through that “valley of death” where revenues migrate from the legacy model to the new internet model but the new world on the other side will offer many more opportunities.
If my survey of one is typical with respect to revenues, why do I think that newspapers have a future? Firstly, the World Association of Newspapers recently reported that global advertising revenues increased 5.7% driven by growth in China, India and SE Asia. Newspapers are still a valued part of the media landscape. In the past several years, the NYT has expanded its presence in Europe with the purchase of the International Herald and a number of UK newspapers have announced they will launch US versions of their papers. The WSJ has long had a successful Asia edition of their newspaper. According to the WAN the global advertising market for newspapers was only marginally lower in 2005 versus 2004. While the UK market fell 3% the revenues in the rest of Europe pulled the overall up over 4% versus 2004. In the US circulation was down over 2% but due mainly to evening newspapers. Another report from the Newspaper Association of America, indicates that online newspaper advertising rose 35% last year; the eighth successive year they did so.
While these numbers are hardly compelling enough to run out and buy a newspaper company the numbers are also not catastrophic as some predict. Many commentators have documented the decline in classified advertising – cars, real estate, etc. – as the harbinger of extinction for newspapers which brings me to my next point. Most local newspapers have both a virtual monopoly and strong brand identity in their markets. They are in most cases high margin low capital operations with high customer loyalty. As is becoming clear, and some newspapers are leading the way, search and discovery is increasingly more local. Newspapers are integrating the types of services – mash-ups even – that are familiar to web search users and classified searches are integrated with mapping, video and social networking like user recommendations and reviews. In many local communities, it was the newspaper that helped define the locality – citizens identified with it and what it stood for. I see this continuing as newspapers rebuild an electronic version of their franchise and also extend their revenue model beyond what the print could offer them.
Not to be overlooked is the filtering function that Newspapers can offer. In providing editorial oversight to classified advertising the newspaper can act as an additional layer of ‘protection’ for their users. This is something which free classified ad sites like craigslist.com are unwilling to do. While ads and the local community will drive revenues this is not to forget that the newspapers can continue to deliver the local audience to national advertisers at a very narrow level.
Many newspaper companies have been experimenting/participating with the web for many years and have had reasonably advanced sites for a while. With the integration of video and the rapid deployment of broadband access these newspaper companies will be in a strong position to challenge local television for media dollars. As mentioned above these companies are not cash poor and have ample resources to continue to invest and build their local presence. A good time to be in the newspaper business.
Monday, June 12, 2006
Publishing News: Ken Thomson, John Cleese, John Steinbeck, WorldCup
Ken Thomson dies at 82.
Just a week after Thomson head Richard Harrington suggested the company would consider divesting its educational publishing assets, the company patriarch and son of the founder has died. The company under Mr. Thomson was transformed into a content and electronic publishing giant and both culled low growth assets and added new companies with regularity. The comapny also owns the Global and Mail in Toronto. No news on what his passing will mean for Thomson.
Penguin loose one to the Steinbecks.
Who knew Steinbeck's novels were still in play. Today a judge in California has ruled that the rights to Steinbecks novels should revert to the family. Here is the news report from the LATimes. Additionally, here is a review of what this decision means from a legal perspective.
US World Cup Talking Heads are Horrible.
The US broadcasters are spending a lot of money this time around to broadcast every World cup game. Nevertheless, they still haven't got it right. The broadcasters on ESPN and ABC have been horrible and have rightly come under attack from viewers. Apparently, the NYtimes WC blog is the second most visited part of the times site and the post about the announcers received incredible response. Here is the blog That is not withstanding an hilarious Stephen Colbert report on his expectations for the Worldcup.
I am an England fan and my work days for the next four weeks are organized around the games. Last time in 2002 during a business trip, I watched games in Canada, US and Australia but thankfully this time I am not traveling so much. Univision has announced early viewing figures for the Worldcup and they say it is on track to be the biggest ever - possibly double the level last time. Given the appalling US announcers I would rather listen to the German commentary on Setanta than the US commentary on ABC. Apparently, you can hack the UK websites so you can get the blacked out UK commentary. I haven't tried it.
Cleese to Write History of Comedy;
John Cleese has announced he is retiring from performing and will instead work on writing a history of comedy and teaching as a this one myself.
Borders Announces Lay-Offs:
Their results just aren't good enough.
Thursday, June 01, 2006
Pearson Acquires Chancery, Macmillan Publishing Wins Borsenverin Contract
On top of last weeks purchase of the PowerSchool product from Apple, the company announced that it has acquired Chancery Software. The two operations will be merged together and will represent a formidable competive entity in this fast growing segment.
Macmillan (MPS)signs up Germans for Digital Archive.
Interestingly, MPS has had little luck in convincing other publishers that their solution can create a much more controlled environment for their intellectual products than the Google and Yahoo options. So far few takers. This will be a great opportunity for MPS since the company has been aggressively selling the "Bookstore Online" product since the latter part of last year. The MPS product is impressinve and moreover they have both significant expertise in technical development and publishing product knowledge having been one of the first major publishers to create an outsourcing operation in India. At there locations in India I believe they have over 6,000 employees and they do work for both the Macmillan (VHPS) companies and other publishers.